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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby

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With that omega block in the Pacific, we ain't getting jack around here. Didn't we have that exact same pattern last year?
Plus we all know it has to snow in Seattle before it can snow here. I need to check the Wiki first, but I think it’s commonly known as a “table setting step-down process.”
 
Last year we actually had a strong +PNA/-EPO Jan....Feb wasn't pretty. We had a pretty good pattern last half of Jan that didn't' produce.

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Yeah we went in the freezer in early January..didn’t see a whole lot of production but it was damn cold..pond beside my house was frozen on top..edit..maybe that was Jan 18’..they are beginning to run together
 
I'm really hoping for 2014 flip....we had a -PNA pattern to end Dec 2013 and then flipped to that bitterly cold pattern for Jan/Feb.

Would like to see that Scandanavian ridge get going though.


gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-8765600.png
compday.Uz2vbi9q8b.gifcompday.ZRVQ4ZexSl.gif
 
Yeah we went in the freezer in early January..didn’t see a whole lot of production but it was damn cold..pond beside my house was frozen on top..edit..maybe that was Jan 18’..they are beginning to run together

Last 10 days or so was a nice cold shot...kind of what I'm hoping for this winter. Get a 7-10 cold shot and fluke a storm.

compday.O3N1uYFr7C.gif
 
JoeD from WB posted on winter today...he's always a good read. His thoughts are that we are in eQBO in the strat and also solar min.

He posted this from a study, which is interesting. He feels the ridge will slide further east and pattern will look like top left.

Screen_Shot_2019_12_25_at_8_18_02_PM.png


ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom_5day-8657600.png
 
Last 10 days or so was a nice cold shot...kind of what I'm hoping for this winter. Get a 7-10 cold shot and fluke a storm.

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I wish we didn't have all these models at our disposal. Most of the time we don't get snow until after mid January so the pattern must on average suck this time of year or it would snow more often. Most of our storms probably have came in a 10 day transient pattern. Memory is a horrible thing to rely on with past weather events. There is no doubt it used to snow more, the records don't lie on that. GSP used to get double digit years on average every 3 years or so. Hasn't happened in 27 years now. That's not a coincidence and that alone pisses me off that those days are long gone. But even then most came in Jan and Feb so I guess its always been a waiting game.
 
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