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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby

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I’ll go with Yates


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I'd just like, for once, to not be begging, pleading, and hoping beyond hope for a pattern change to winter in the middle of winter. I mean, it's entirely possible to wake up tomorrow to a completely different tone in the guidance that sets us forth on a real journey to durable cold and snow.

But wouldn't it be nice, for a change, to come out of a seasonal or cool December, and get into the first week of January with cold in place and cold on the horizon? Instead, we have to wait and watch, while we're on break from mulching and mowing, to see when we might begin a real, non-illusory trek toward a pattern that offers something more than a transient cold shot.
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
We simply don't see large scale pattern flips in mid winter much. Not sure if it used to occur more frequently or not. But going back 40 years or so 79 and 03 had awful Pacifics that turned around. But it also had help from the NAO to do so. We know that's not happening as a -NAO doesn't happen in winter anymore for some reason. I think 2011 flipped from sugar to poop mid Jan. But it's going to be hard to recover from this hole we're digging going into peak climo.
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I don’t think this is true. 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 featured pattern switches (from bad to good, no real storms before February) and 2010-2011 started off great, but the pattern flipped to a hostile one and the second half of winter was pretty bad. That’s just off the top of my head.
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
If the 85 corridor strikes out completely it will be. That's never happened. It has at GSP in 11-12 but not CLT up. If this year tries to follow last year its happening because December didn't save us this year.
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Don’t forget about the Amazing April storm around Charlotte last year. Somehow, the area struck out during the entirety of calendar winter, but got two storms outside that, LOL. Granted, neither was particularly impactful in the CLT metro, and the December storm was kind of a bust, as I recall. Getting April snowfall is pretty cool, though. I’ve never witnessed that live and in color. EDIT: Well, I suppose I saw May snow while on vacation in Finland and Sweden in May 2017, but that was not IMBY. :)

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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
December will go down as another Mega torch after the end we’re about to have. We are also starting January in the hole with heat wedges. We might go for the hot winter month trifeca before a record cold March
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Maps without a source, time-stamp, and/or legend are nearly impossible to follow, and more importantly, get your point/message across. Just saying. ;)
 
NoSnowATL said:
Yea December was fine here too. Nothing too cold or hot. Only thing that kills me is the warm lows but its been wet so it’s hard to get cold with clouds just about every night.


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Yeah I was thinking today wedges just don't produce freezing temperatures like they did 20 years ago.. I remember it was common to get two or three ice storms in 1 winter living in CAD region of Georgia
 
It does seem a little silly to me to punt January before it’s even began. It’s a long month, there’s no telling what it may look like mid-month, nevermind late month.

Even if it truly is a dumpster fire, we’ll put all our chips in for Fab Feb/Marvelous March/Amazing April/Miraculous May. ;)
 
I'm remembering January 2014 being cold throughout. I don't think the December preceding was that cold but it flipped about around the New Year. The first real winter storm shot was not until late January though, which of course caused a crazy mess due to it being underestimated.

Then 14/15 annoyed people with how long it took to flip, but then February was pretty cold with multiple shots of winter weather. Disappointment came from it though for some.

However after that, that's been it for February.
 
Tbh I’m just focused about what’s under hour 240, forget past that because things can easily change over hour 240, if they didn’t already before hour 240, and so far the pattern between now and hour 240/D10 ain’t the best
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I'm remembering January 2014 being cold throughout. I don't think the December preceding was that cold but it flipped about around the New Year. The first real winter storm shot was not until late January though, which of course caused a crazy mess due to it being underestimated.

Then 14/15 annoyed people with how long it took to flip, but then February was pretty cold with multiple shots of winter weather. Disappointment came from it though for some.

However after that, that's been it for February.
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You’re right, there was a major event for E NC and portions of the deeper south in late January. Nevertheless, it took until late January for us to get a notable system. That was the best Fab Feb/Marvelous March I’ve ever experienced, though. What a turnaround.

In 2015, I don’t think we even saw flakes in Greensboro until a mid-February storm. But that winter was saved by the last two weeks of Fab Feb.
 
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