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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby

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Snowless & Grumpy said:
Not all of us fall for it. And the ones who don't are told we're negative. This dumpster fire has been showing up for a couple weeks and has been the way more consistent look on models. They may show promise one day but quickly revert back to crap. When the Pac is that bad it never recovers. It just goes from hostile to not as hostile. Our chances will come when it reshuffles and is not as hostile. But a large scale pattern change with sustained cold here isn't happening. That is until March like always when it's too late. Best we can hope for is a storm or 2 at this point because the ship has sailed on a cold winter.
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So this qualifies as a dumpster fire now?

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Snowless & Grumpy said:
Not all of us fall for it. And the ones who don't are told we're negative. This dumpster fire has been showing up for a couple weeks and has been the way more consistent look on models. They may show promise one day but quickly revert back to crap. When the Pac is that bad it never recovers. It just goes from hostile to not as hostile. Our chances will come when it reshuffles and is not as hostile. But a large scale pattern change with sustained cold here isn't happening. That is until March like always when it's too late. Best we can hope for is a storm or 2 at this point because the ship has sailed on a cold winter.
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- we are in a bad stretch and it can’t last forever. I’ve done some research myself and for my area this isn’t new. We have had bad 5-7 year stretches before. It’s Mother Nature she tends to even out eventually.


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SD said:
So this qualifies as a dumpster fire now?

db0741e489e4883fb91c0480d973481f.jpg


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Sure we may can get a storm with that look. But theres a lot of blue over AK, the Arctic and Greenland and no ridging out west for that to be anything but a transient shot. I'm talking about a cold pattern taking hold and locking like we had in November.
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
Not all of us fall for it. And the ones who don't are told we're negative. This dumpster fire has been showing up for a couple weeks and has been the way more consistent look on models. They may show promise one day but quickly revert back to crap. When the Pac is that bad it never recovers. It just goes from hostile to not as hostile. Our chances will come when it reshuffles and is not as hostile. But a large scale pattern change with sustained cold here isn't happening. That is until March like always when it's too late. Best we can hope for is a storm or 2 at this point because the ship has sailed on a cold winter.
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I agree on March, seems as if it always comes to late. But it's hard to say the ship has sold on anything. If anything, I am always going to lean on getting nothing here in Central SC. But I remember thinking the same thing in late Dec 2013, and we know what happened after that. A lot of people are not going to agree with this, but I just don't think there are enough analogs or just flat out documented climate to somewhat accurately forecast weather a month or further out. I think when we are right, I think it's just cause it just happened to work out that way. We work with what we have, and a lot of people do a great job with it like Eric for example. I think people like him and others could really be the pedestal to really establishing some sort of accurate science behind predicting weather way in advance one day down the road. But for me personally, as I grow, I find it easier and easier not to get wrapped up in these prediction of a "snowy and cold winter" and people like JB tweeting things like "the hounds of Winter about to be released" or some bogus like that. Sticking to figuring out weather 2 weeks out seems like the best thing anyone could do in my opinion. After that, it changes so much.
 
GaWx said:
That appears highly unlikely per model forecasts that agree to quickly bring it back to the warmer phases. Couple that with +AO, +NAO, -PNA/-AAM and you’re not going to get more than a cold shot here or there with a warmer than average SE overall favored at least through 1/15 or so. This has a La Niña look to me.
Let’s hope the second half of January is different.
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And come mid Jan we'll be saying "hopefully the 1st half of Feb." We've seen this before. Basically every year and know how this ends. Bet the streak as we said last summer. Winter 20-21 will be warm too. And 21-22. Wait by then we'll be using different normals so maybe not as bad. Rant over!
 
December will go down as another Mega torch after the end we’re about to have. We are also starting January in the hole with heat wedges. We might go for the hot winter month trifeca before a record cold March049AAB32-BA04-46AF-B2B6-DE3A74D70822.jpeg
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
December will go down as another Mega torch after the end we’re about to have. We are also starting January in the hole with heat wedges. We might go for the hot winter month trifeca before a record cold MarchView attachment 29015
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What's new? We knew this was coming last year. It will 20-21 also. Its what we do down here.
 
We simply don't see large scale pattern flips in mid winter much. Not sure if it used to occur more frequently or not. But going back 40 years or so 79 and 03 had awful Pacifics that turned around. But it also had help from the NAO to do so. We know that's not happening as a -NAO doesn't happen in winter anymore for some reason. I think 2011 flipped from sugar to poop mid Jan. But it's going to be hard to recover from this hole we're digging going into peak climo.
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
And come mid Jan we'll be saying "hopefully the 1st half of Feb." We've seen this before. Basically every year and know how this ends. Bet the streak as we said last summer. Winter 20-21 will be warm too. And 21-22. Wait by then we'll be using different normals so maybe not as bad. Rant over!
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1/15+ is still unknown. Also, I wouldn’t give up on 20-21 yet. Seriously. And 21-22 is light years away.
 
GaWx said:
1/15+ is still unknown. Also, I wouldn’t give up on 20-21 yet. Seriously. And 21-22 is light years away.
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Oh I know. Just venting. But serious question. When we get stuck with a horrible Pac what are the chances it turns around? It doesnt seem like many years have that large scale flip. 79 and 03 but had Atlantic help. I recall many, if any this decade where we waited for the flip and it actually occurred.
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
Oh I know. Just venting. But serious question. When we get stuck with a horrible Pac what are the chances it turns around? It doesnt seem like many years have that large scale flip. 79 and 03 but had Atlantic help. I recall many, if any this decade where we waited for the flip and it actually occurred.
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Didn’t 2006-7 flip from warm in January to a cool Feb? Of course, that was El Niño.
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
Oh I know. Just venting. But serious question. When we get stuck with a horrible Pac what are the chances it turns around? It doesnt seem like many years have that large scale flip. 79 and 03 but had Atlantic help. I recall many, if any this decade where we waited for the flip and it actually occurred.
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Many don’t care to explore the possibility that winter 2020 has the potential to set the new standard for *Dog Excrement* winter’s.. the turn of a new decade. I don’t even think we’ve scratched the surface on how a bad a southeast winter can get. If I live to be 80, I’m sure I will get to experience the bottom of the bottom
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Many don’t care to explore the possibility that winter 2020 has the potential to set the new standard for *Dog Excrement* winter’s.. the turn of a new decade. I don’t even think we’ve scratched the surface on how a bad a southeast winter can get. If I live to be 80, I’m sure I will get to experience the bottom of the bottom
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If the 85 corridor strikes out completely it will be. That's never happened. It has at GSP in 11-12 but not CLT up. If this year tries to follow last year its happening because December didn't save us this year.
 
GaWx said:
If we were to switch to a bitterly cold dominated 1/15-2/29, the current “angst” of some is liable to be long forgotten even by those very worried folks. They may even laugh about this later.
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We can only hope, I think I will laugh but only to hide the sadness.


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