Well that’s a sketchy look
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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby
- Thread starter BirdManDoomW
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whatalife
Moderator
Just when you think it can’t get any worse...SMDH!
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it fits with the last EPS run: 
Looks like our mid summertime thermal ridge that plows MCSs right into us, except those low heights over/north of the GLs support CAD as HPs move East, and it’s way to cool for anything like that
Forget snow, I can’t even get below freezing one time during a 384hr run of the GFS..might be time to start worrying about soil temps? FML
GFS operational really moderating temperatures the closer we get to next week, looks like a lot more 50s and 60s. I don’t know how many freezes KATL has so far, 3 maybe 4, and none in the near future. We may see signs of Spring here soon, not being at all sarcastic.
looks like 4 freezes according to Nowdata records.. I guess that's hartsfield airport. Had 12 so far in Chattanooga since Nov.
JB = ? , it’s pinches your nerves to see these types of posts knowing the upcoming crap pattern and lack of support for this solution
I don't think about missing out on snow since snow is so rare here, but I do think about the potential for bad bugs for next spring/summer if we don't get enough freezes.
It would help if certain forecasters didn't ignore the obvious biases of models. Doesn't he realize that the 9-16 will very likely warm up considerably as it rolls forward into the 1-8 just like the current 1-8 did vs when it was in the 9-16?? He's cruising for a bruisin'. At least BAMwx and Cohen have recognized reality recently even if that means they admitted they busted badly. But not good ole stubborn JB. He shouldn't have given in to his temptation and cooled his initially near normal winter forecast. smh
I’ve started looking back at the first forecast still available on tropical tidbits and comparing it to the first 7 days of the latest run, it’s easy to see it’s cold bias.
they never fixed the even more cold biased 'new and improved' gfs fv3 which is now are current regular gfs.. right? Or am i wrong on this...
If you look at a certain comment under that post, there’s a 2m temp anomaly map from the gefs for Jan 1st, 270 hours ago it had a very cold eastern US/GLs/Canada, then now 132-138 hours out now and it’s backed off that cold significantly, very classic case of a cold bias
southernskimmer
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It’s a bad pattern when Grapevine, CA is getting weekly snowstorms
Interestingly enough, though the FV3 still has a cold bias and it sometimes has unrealistic very cold runs that are colder than the GEFS , it on occasion has very warm runs like the new 0Z that are much warmer than the GEFS and even a good bit warmer than the EPS.. As a result, my daily observations of the FV3 vs the GEFS are telling me the GEFS has averaged a bit colder than the FV3. It is possible that they reduced this FV3 cold bias somewhat.
Is anyone staying up for the King? For those not staying up, I wonder if some are using their Euro alarms?
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Brent
Member
this is the point forecast for freaking Las Vegas(yes the Las Vegas notorious for heat) btw it snowed there last year too...
Monday
A slight chance of rain and snow before 11am
Not to mention the Rockies have been loaded for the ski resorts again this year.
This have gotten so bad that instead of complaining I think I'm just going to disappear for a few days. Towel in hand!
RollTide18
Member
This year has been weird.
January-February was Fall
March was Winter
April-October was Summer
November was Winter
December is Fall
Now January is looking like Fall.
In all seriousness that, I'm guilty of looking and these preseason forecasts and getting excited only to be let down, I try to be optimistic instead of cynical for winters like this but it's getting harder and harder to not be cynical.
January-February was Fall
March was Winter
April-October was Summer
November was Winter
December is Fall
Now January is looking like Fall.
In all seriousness that, I'm guilty of looking and these preseason forecasts and getting excited only to be let down, I try to be optimistic instead of cynical for winters like this but it's getting harder and harder to not be cynical.
We’re not even in January yet let’s not panic
Ilovesnow28
Member
Honestly winter is over which some folks will say it never started... But im sticking to my guns ive been on the cliff since November about this winter cause i knew the models showing any signs of cold or winter weather was a bunch of baloney... Guys stop falling for the useless government trash models during the winter months
ATLwxfan
Member
So we should ignore the trashy Euro run from last night that showed a torch? Ok...will do.
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NoSnowATL
Member
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Ilovesnow28
Member
Hmmm every model don't have a clue on whats going to happen.... yea i say lets ignore the king euro or all the other models until it actually snows and we actually open our front doors and see snow (not flurries) actually falling from the sky
I guess we can look at long term model projections a couple different ways by looking back. I just read back through some of the Dec thread up to the middle of the month and there was tons of optimism heading towards the end of the month and into the new year. This optimism was based off of model projections, the ensembles and indexes..... of course we see how things have evolved and how it's verifying. My point about looking at it a couple of different ways is, one we can see how things fell apart and verified warmer (reason to think things will only get worse moving forward) or the fact that models were that far off in the long range and hopefully that is the case now, as long as they aren't way off on how warm it will be. Goes to what @Jon was saying in the main thread, models, including king euro and it's ens haven't been to good in the LR. I'm neutral right now about how January will turn out, it's just way too early to really have any type of feel for it.
Yep, it is showing full blown SER dominating warmth, similar to recent winters and a typical -AAM/warm MJO phases/+AO response. As I said yesterday, we’d be lucky to have a near normal first half of January with this terrible combo of indices. At 2 meters, this is how the anomalies look in the 11-15: E US torch
Now, to see how much warmer it is vs the prior run, here’s the prior (12Z) EPS 11-15:
Did the 0Z EPS go too warm? Maybe but it sure looks realistic for a -AAM/MJO phases 4-5/+AO combo.
That's weird and must be aided by warm overnight temps. Looking at the mean highs for my location they aren't that bad
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I am all for we don't know how week 3 on the EPS is going to turn out but before any improvement happens it's going to be tough to get a ridge to poke through that boulder of a tropospheric polar vortex. That son a gun looks stout, consolidated right over the pole. With a coupled strat/trop we would need some strat help to push it off the pole and nothing is showing that right now. But, like some are saying models have been wrong in the extended.
I came into this winter the lowest expectations I have had for any winter but I still felt like we would see an event or two. I thought a blend of 05/07 was reasonable and right now this looks worse.
Yeah when larry posted about the eps being warmer earlier I looked at our temps and was like what gives. Still sucks that the eps dropped the big cold shot next week the mean had a high of like 39 or 40
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I get the AAM thing but if it was that much of a global driver you would think CPC or another world agency would be monitoring it. It just doesn't make sense...to me it's just one domino. I don't even know if this is a MJO ph4/5 deal, the GEFS doesn't even have it making it to ph4/5 on todays run...the BC version does but that's like day 13. Will see what the EPS MJO run shows here soon but my guess is it will day 13+ deal.
All in........... It took a lot of digging to find that one, literally that only one
I don't mind this one either. Looks like RainCold, SD and myself are all toeing the rain/snow line.
ATLwxfan
Member
We sit here and trash the models for their lack of consistency yet we panic about the unfavorable outcomes they predict. Such a strange thing if you think about it.
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You did a much better job of hunting then I did... Lol.
Good observation. Yes, it is mainly the lows rather than the highs that are so mild, which has been a common thing throughout the E US during the 2010s warmth throughout the year. On this 0Z EPS, RDU is about 5 AN overall but with the lows about 8 AN (~39 vs 31 normal) and the highs only about 2 AN (~52 vs 50 normal).
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