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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby

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Ollie Williams said:
How’s TN snow. My assumption is that you all see small clippers a chunk of the time, but rarely get big storms.
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clippers work for everywhere in East Tn, except where I live, in the southern TN valley.. lol We get a 2-3 inch storm roughly every 2-3 years, and 6-10 inch storm roughly every 6-8 years(have gone longer). Sometimes winters can go back to back with 10 plus inches in Chattanooga. But even in our metro area, there are variations. We go from 680 ft above sea level to 2100 ft so you can see a trace in the valleys and 2-3 inches on the ridge tops with even marginal storms and clippers.

Edit: Also bad ice storms hit our ridge tops worse. We can be 32-33 with mostly rain in the valley, and a raging ice storm on Signal or Lookout mts. And they're in the same county, so people always ----- about school closings, but are too dumb to factor in our elevation issues.
 
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Van is out to lunch. 20-40” is crazy wrong. More like 2-4” IMO.
 
In the past 10 years, CHA has had a trace of snow in Nov 2011, 2013, 2014, 2018, and 2019. Nothing higher than a trace. A couple of years had a Trace on multiple days. Only winters 13-14 and 14-15 had above average snowfall for the season. Nino, Nina, Nono be damned.

Edit: 09-10, and 10-11 also had above avg seasonal snowfall, but there wasn't any recorded snow in Nov.
 
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CyclonicFury said:
I think recency bias is a large part of it. Typically, early December is several weeks prior to the most climatoligcally favored snowfall window for the SE US. What has happened the last two years is unusual and it likely won't happen again this year.
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Honestly we came up empty the last two years when further east had snow but some people here were acting like this was the pattern that would break our snowless streak(looking at the 360 hour GFS too much I think) and now its a high maybe in the upper 40s, hardly impressive given we had a day in the 30s already.

pcbjr said:
Here's your Magic 8 Ball answer to the question about our winter ... take your pick ...

View attachment 26490
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yeah people ask me about winter and I'm just like... sometimes we can't even predict a day in advance right. lol

I take these long range projections of the AMO and the PNA and NAO(pick your favorite) being supposedly "favorable" with a grain of salt tbh
 
Ollie Williams said:
Van Denton In Greensboro released his winter outlook this evening. He’s going with above average snow, and he’s going with below average temps December, January and February with wild temperature swings in March. I think It looks reasonable 85 north but south, meh, I don’t see Mack getting 6-10 inches of snow. We need more of a Wake county gradient.View attachment 26491
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Yeah 6-8" in SE Wake and NW Johnston is way too much. I'd also guess the totals were slightly lower in Central/NW Wake as well. 4-6" across eastern NC is likely too high as well. I think actual totals will be more like 1-2" in the 6-8" strip and Trace-1" in the 2-4" strip.
 
CyclonicFury said:
Yeah 6-8" in SE Wake and NW Johnston is way too much. I'd also guess the totals were slightly lower in Central/NW Wake as well. 4-6" across eastern NC is likely too high as well. I think actual totals will be more like 1-2" in the 6-8" strip and Trace-1" in the 2-4" strip.
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Just takes one.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Van Denton In Greensboro released his winter outlook this evening. He’s going with above average snow, and he’s going with below average temps December, January and February with wild temperature swings in March. I think It looks reasonable 85 north but south, meh, I don’t see Mack getting 6-10 inches of snow. We need more of a Wake county gradient.View attachment 26491
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Me neither! That’s like 300% of normal!
But I like his map!?
 
Ollie Williams said:
Van Denton In Greensboro released his winter outlook this evening. He’s going with above average snow, and he’s going with below average temps December, January and February with wild temperature swings in March. I think It looks reasonable 85 north but south, meh, I don’t see Mack getting 6-10 inches of snow. We need more of a Wake county gradient.View attachment 26491
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Yeah, NW NC I could see how that could be reasonable (probably too much though realistically). Charlotte and south seems not likely.

If I get 10 inches of snow in Mooresville this year I'll send him a thank you email for sure though. lol.
 
What’s with all of the cold and snowy winter forecasts lately? Was there just a weenie convention or something? Seriously, what is the reason for these cold forecasts? Is there a reason besides typical weenie-ness? I suspect it is largely because of the cold Nov, which really does have a small correlation to winter but it is only small.
 
GaWx said:
What’s with all of the cold and snowy winter forecasts lately? Was there just a weenie convention or something? Seriously, what is the reason for these cold forecasts? Is there a reason besides typical weenie-ness? I suspect it is largely because of the cold Nov, which really does have a small correlation to winter but it is only small.
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The We're Due index is off the charts.
 
Rain Cold said:
The We're Due index is off the charts.
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Yeap folks still think the climate hasn’t changed since the 80s when we actually had winter. The background state is much warmer now and the SE maybe getting one or two frozen events a year is not a reality anymore.


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BHS1975 said:
Yeap folks still think the climate hasn’t changed since the 80s when we actually had winter. The background state is much warmer now and the SE maybe getting one or two frozen events a year is not a reality anymore.


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I agree with you but only to some extent. Yes, normals are rising. The Arctic source region is significantly warmer. But the background state (average global temp) is still no more than about 2 F warmer than the 1980s. Take a cold 80s winter and add 2 degrees and you still have a pretty cold winter. Look at how cold was 2009-10 for example although admittedly the globe has warmed more since then.
 
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BHS1975 said:
Yeap folks still think the climate hasn’t changed since the 80s when we actually had winter. The background state is much warmer now and the SE maybe getting one or two frozen events a year is not a reality anymore.


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We usually get a few frozen events each year. They're not all snow, and sometimes there's mixing with or changing to rain in some areas, but we still get frozen precipitation. Most of our issues haven't been because we've had favorable patterns but the air just wasn't cold enough. It's because there have been very few favorable patterns to deliver significant cold and moisture. We've seen an abundance of SE ridging or WAR and +AO/NAO for many winters now. Maybe climate change is responsible for that to some degree. Or maybe it's more cyclical. Whatever the reason, when we start seeing -AO/NAO winters with sustained troughing in the east and we still aren't cold enough for snow, I'll be more inclined to blame it mostly on climate change.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
The Oklahoma panhandle is also slowly having all of their snow ripped away..it’s pretty sad, because I can relate

SundayView attachment 26506
TodayView attachment 26507
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The panhandle averages probably 20" of snow a year and already had a nice event. They will get theres eventually, plus, it's still showing snow there and it's not even Dec yet. Boston has been on an epic run the past decade, probably there snowiest period in a long long time.
 
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