If we crap the bed and not get a single storm all year I'm done with winter! That would be too much after the disaster last year!
It’s not as simple as this but it’s basically what we needs. Green is good and red is bad. MJO wants to stay in red more then green. Yes we might had a 7-10 day window in January but she heads to red where she wants to stay because of the active IOD. I don’t think January will do it and February doesn’t look great but might be ok I’ve she can come back to the green side. Yes it’s my opinion and I’m not a Met but I’ve seen this movie before and I’m going on past winters like this one. I was wrong on my prediction and I was wrong last year. I look forward to some strong ninos and la ninas. This weak crap is poop. Merry Christmas
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Yea i agree but the timing is never right for us
I don’t think so.. realistically we would only need one storm to really match good with timing because if we can get an active southern jet storm to hit some cold air it could easily produce some good snows that would most likely rip the scales in favor of normal to above normal snowfall even with that one event
Wtf, literally a warmer cored storm
accepting reality ≠ giving up
Absolutely. There is major cause for concern at this point for just about everybody on this board. The clock is ticking and we’re already looking ahead 2+ weeks. Hell, many areas well to our north haven't even seen a flake and it doesn’t look like they will at least until the second half of January. I’ve seen this far too many times.
BuT wInTeR jUsT sTaRtEdNow:
Remember 2011:
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That is true. It is ticking. Yes I realize it's only December and we usually don't have snow by now. But it's time we should start seeing some promising signs going forward and we really don't. After every dumpster fire we look back and say the writing was on the wall early. One could make a strong argument the writing is there this year now. I'm not throwing the towel yet as it has plenty of time still. But from my experience and the great minds I follow online agree once the Pac goes to crap it usually doesn't recover. The winters that end well usually rely on the Atlantic in the end. Good lord if we have to rely on the NAO to save us we're screwed! Lol
That's about the only thing keeping me going. I'd guess 66+% of our systems occur after 1/10 it may be different down your way but at least we are still going towards the climo peak and not posting this on 2/25
Oh good lord 05-06.... that used to be the gold standard for crappy winters for me until last year
Probably as good an analog as any
2000 was a terrible winter outside of a 2-week time frame, basically. I remember us torching in February, but the huge snow plow piles from the Carolina Crusher still persisted. Just goes to show it really only takes one storm, as I like to say.
You missed my point. What I am saying is people are just looking entirely to hard and being sold on one solution. I am not biased towards any solution. All I am saying, is if the models suddenly flipped to all cold, regardless of a phase, suddenly everyone would be head over hills again with headline on Twitter like "Models suddenly flip, expect cold for the 1st half of January" only for them to flip back to warm and them change everything up. Just seems like the same thing everytime.
Scraping the bottom of the barrel there!I need to go watch JB’s video to make me feel better about the next two to three weeks of winter.
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But yes, you are right. Seems as if we all do fall for the false cold showing up time and time again!
Not all of us fall for it. And the ones who don't are told we're negative. This dumpster fire has been showing up for a couple weeks and has been the way more consistent look on models. They may show promise one day but quickly revert back to crap. When the Pac is that bad it never recovers. It just goes from hostile to not as hostile. Our chances will come when it reshuffles and is not as hostile. But a large scale pattern change with sustained cold here isn't happening. That is until March like always when it's too late. Best we can hope for is a storm or 2 at this point because the ship has sailed on a cold winter.
