So this qualifies as a dumpster fire now?
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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby
- Thread starter BirdManDoomW
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NoSnowATL
Member
- we are in a bad stretch and it can’t last forever. I’ve done some research myself and for my area this isn’t new. We have had bad 5-7 year stretches before. It’s Mother Nature she tends to even out eventually. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
NoSnowATL
Member
We need that guy in Florida that had the plan to kill the hurricane with ice. We need a plane with dry ice and ice to drop over the Indian Ocean. That should kill the thunderstorms.
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Sure we may can get a storm with that look. But theres a lot of blue over AK, the Arctic and Greenland and no ridging out west for that to be anything but a transient shot. I'm talking about a cold pattern taking hold and locking like we had in November.So this qualifies as a dumpster fire now?
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I agree on March, seems as if it always comes to late. But it's hard to say the ship has sold on anything. If anything, I am always going to lean on getting nothing here in Central SC. But I remember thinking the same thing in late Dec 2013, and we know what happened after that. A lot of people are not going to agree with this, but I just don't think there are enough analogs or just flat out documented climate to somewhat accurately forecast weather a month or further out. I think when we are right, I think it's just cause it just happened to work out that way. We work with what we have, and a lot of people do a great job with it like Eric for example. I think people like him and others could really be the pedestal to really establishing some sort of accurate science behind predicting weather way in advance one day down the road. But for me personally, as I grow, I find it easier and easier not to get wrapped up in these prediction of a "snowy and cold winter" and people like JB tweeting things like "the hounds of Winter about to be released" or some bogus like that. Sticking to figuring out weather 2 weeks out seems like the best thing anyone could do in my opinion. After that, it changes so much.
NoSnowATL
Member
Alright got the grass cut, trees trimmed, weed eating done..all I need is a grill, a baseball game and a cold
I cut mine yesterday. Already starting to see new blooms in the Bermuda.
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And come mid Jan we'll be saying "hopefully the 1st half of Feb." We've seen this before. Basically every year and know how this ends. Bet the streak as we said last summer. Winter 20-21 will be warm too. And 21-22. Wait by then we'll be using different normals so maybe not as bad. Rant over!
December will go down as another Mega torch after the end we’re about to have. We are also starting January in the hole with heat wedges. We might go for the hot winter month trifeca before a record cold March
What's new? We knew this was coming last year. It will 20-21 also. Its what we do down here.
We simply don't see large scale pattern flips in mid winter much. Not sure if it used to occur more frequently or not. But going back 40 years or so 79 and 03 had awful Pacifics that turned around. But it also had help from the NAO to do so. We know that's not happening as a -NAO doesn't happen in winter anymore for some reason. I think 2011 flipped from sugar to poop mid Jan. But it's going to be hard to recover from this hole we're digging going into peak climo.
1/15+ is still unknown. Also, I wouldn’t give up on 20-21 yet. Seriously. And 21-22 is light years away.
Oh I know. Just venting. But serious question. When we get stuck with a horrible Pac what are the chances it turns around? It doesnt seem like many years have that large scale flip. 79 and 03 but had Atlantic help. I recall many, if any this decade where we waited for the flip and it actually occurred.
Didn’t 2006-7 flip from warm in January to a cool Feb? Of course, that was El Niño.
yep, 3 inches of snow in Chattanooga early Feb 2007.. It was the first snowfall over an inch in many years at the time.
Many don’t care to explore the possibility that winter 2020 has the potential to set the new standard for *Dog Excrement* winter’s.. the turn of a new decade. I don’t even think we’ve scratched the surface on how a bad a southeast winter can get. If I live to be 80, I’m sure I will get to experience the bottom of the bottom
I really don't remember any cold that Feb. Maybe transient and a few minor events. @KyloG isn't this the Feb you were talking about the other day?
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If the 85 corridor strikes out completely it will be. That's never happened. It has at GSP in 11-12 but not CLT up. If this year tries to follow last year its happening because December didn't save us this year.
NoSnowATL
Member
We can only hope, I think I will laugh but only to hide the sadness.
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NoSnowATL
Member
I’ll go with Yates
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
I still despise their whole naming system and I see they ran out of Greek names lol.
I’ll go with Yates
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I'd just like, for once, to not be begging, pleading, and hoping beyond hope for a pattern change to winter in the middle of winter. I mean, it's entirely possible to wake up tomorrow to a completely different tone in the guidance that sets us forth on a real journey to durable cold and snow.
But wouldn't it be nice, for a change, to come out of a seasonal or cool December, and get into the first week of January with cold in place and cold on the horizon? Instead, we have to wait and watch, while we're on break from mulching and mowing, to see when we might begin a real, non-illusory trek toward a pattern that offers something more than a transient cold shot.
But wouldn't it be nice, for a change, to come out of a seasonal or cool December, and get into the first week of January with cold in place and cold on the horizon? Instead, we have to wait and watch, while we're on break from mulching and mowing, to see when we might begin a real, non-illusory trek toward a pattern that offers something more than a transient cold shot.
I don’t think this is true. 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 featured pattern switches (from bad to good, no real storms before February) and 2010-2011 started off great, but the pattern flipped to a hostile one and the second half of winter was pretty bad. That’s just off the top of my head.
Don’t forget about the Amazing April storm around Charlotte last year. Somehow, the area struck out during the entirety of calendar winter, but got two storms outside that, LOL. Granted, neither was particularly impactful in the CLT metro, and the December storm was kind of a bust, as I recall. Getting April snowfall is pretty cool, though. I’ve never witnessed that live and in color. EDIT: Well, I suppose I saw May snow while on vacation in Finland and Sweden in May 2017, but that was not IMBY.
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Maps without a source, time-stamp, and/or legend are nearly impossible to follow, and more importantly, get your point/message across. Just saying.
We always have "January thaw's" every year.
if you have spare time, watch this please.... @tennessee storm here’s a severe weather lesson I just learned a lot from, perhaps one of the best videos I’ve ever watched for severe and chasing
https://tornadotitans.com/hodograph...ting-hazards-guest-lesson-from-cameron-nixon/
https://tornadotitans.com/hodograph...ting-hazards-guest-lesson-from-cameron-nixon/
NoSnowATL
Member
Yeah but yall know what I mean.. it really wasn't that bad of a December
NoSnowATL
Member
Yea December was fine here too. Nothing too cold or hot. Only thing that kills me is the warm lows but its been wet so it’s hard to get cold with clouds just about every night.
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Yeah I was thinking today wedges just don't produce freezing temperatures like they did 20 years ago.. I remember it was common to get two or three ice storms in 1 winter living in CAD region of Georgia
It does seem a little silly to me to punt January before it’s even began. It’s a long month, there’s no telling what it may look like mid-month, nevermind late month.
Even if it truly is a dumpster fire, we’ll put all our chips in for Fab Feb/Marvelous March/Amazing April/Miraculous May.
Even if it truly is a dumpster fire, we’ll put all our chips in for Fab Feb/Marvelous March/Amazing April/Miraculous May.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I'm remembering January 2014 being cold throughout. I don't think the December preceding was that cold but it flipped about around the New Year. The first real winter storm shot was not until late January though, which of course caused a crazy mess due to it being underestimated.
Then 14/15 annoyed people with how long it took to flip, but then February was pretty cold with multiple shots of winter weather. Disappointment came from it though for some.
However after that, that's been it for February.
Then 14/15 annoyed people with how long it took to flip, but then February was pretty cold with multiple shots of winter weather. Disappointment came from it though for some.
However after that, that's been it for February.
More members showing something. Is this just a fluke. Let’s hope not
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Tbh I’m just focused about what’s under hour 240, forget past that because things can easily change over hour 240, if they didn’t already before hour 240, and so far the pattern between now and hour 240/D10 ain’t the best
While Its far out and unlikely, there is a trough signal around that time especially on the gefs, looks better for the NE tho atm
You’re right, there was a major event for E NC and portions of the deeper south in late January. Nevertheless, it took until late January for us to get a notable system. That was the best Fab Feb/Marvelous March I’ve ever experienced, though. What a turnaround.
In 2015, I don’t think we even saw flakes in Greensboro until a mid-February storm. But that winter was saved by the last two weeks of Fab Feb.
“Where we’re going, we don’t need time stamps.”Maps without a source, time-stamp, and/or legend are nearly impossible to follow, and more importantly, get your point/message across. Just saying.
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