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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby

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Tarheel1 said:
What hack put this out?
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NoSnowATL said:
I always expect a up and down pattern in December, it wavers from early cold to warm to warm then cold. I expect no snow at all in December. All I want for December is to show me that January and February has promise. That’s what we all should be looking for.


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what I am hoping. Weak ninos tend to get colder as the winter goes on, hoping the Dec pattern lines up with those composites.
 
Tarheel1 said:
I’ve just been hearing babble for about 2 weeks or so , about some early December super cold was coming , and -NAO coming, now it’s crickets and that GFS run takes us handily into early December and all I get out of this is a low of 28? That’s like 12 degrees below normal!? I just want the pooping models to nail a cold outbreak once , without it warming 10-15 degrees by go time, from what the models were showing! Wait we still have the CMC????
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But you know they almost always overestimate cold outbreaks. You've been on these boards for years and have watched the models model cold pattern after cold pattern that almost always warm up and shorten in duration. So, it seems like it's not really reasonable to expect them to behave differently. You also have been around long enough to know the difference between someone hyping up a cold pattern (either in the real world for clicks or in message board land because they don't know what they're talking about) and someone discussing possibilities and what they'd "like to see happen".

Also, the other thing we know is that big snowstorms way out in modelland aren't going to happen, most likely. Even the ones modeled 48 hours out are probably going to move NW enough to screw us. I wish it was different, but we know it's not. Therefore, it seems unreasonable to expect things to turn out as modeled, regarding cold and snow.
 
Rain Cold said:
I've asked this before, but nobody ever answers: What is the expectation for December/the winter? I mean, not "I want 0 degrees and snow every day". But what is the real expectation?
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I'd like for once to have just a normal winter temp wise. Tired of blowtorching for 1 if not 2 of the 3 winter months every single year!
And would love to see a double digit snow year. Something that used to occur very frequently for GSP and CLT and probably RDU as well. It's sad how much snowfall has declined but people still believe the last ten years have been snowy. Records indicate otherwise.
See CLT for example. Since the late 80s winter have been complete crap compared to the old days except for maybe what 3 years. Not a good look.IMG_20191108_121447.png
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
I'd like for once to have just a normal winter temp wise. Tired of blowtorching for 1 if not 2 of the 3 winter months every single year!
And would love to see a double digit snow year. Something that used to occur very frequently for GSP and CLT and probably RDU as well. It's sad how much snowfall has declined but people still believe the last ten years have been snowy. Records indicate otherwise.
See CLT for example. Since the late 80s winter have been complete crap compared to the old days except for maybe what 3 years. Not a good look.View attachment 26485
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I'd love to see a linear regression of that data ...
 
pcbjr said:
I'd love to see a linear regression of that data ...
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Me too. Unfortunately that is beyond my capabilities to create! Lol hopefully someone here can assist? I know all time average at CLT is still 5.6 even though the last 30 years is only 3.7 inches. So I'm guessing that 5.6 used to be a lot higher before the 1980s came around and we started the decline.
 
I'm just a little annoyed because people were hyping early December so much and now it's not even that cold I guess. It fits the pattern of last winter where all the hope was long range only to vanish.

I've never had hope for December though really because it's been a very long time since I've seen frozen precip during it
 
Brent said:
I'm just a little annoyed because people were hyping early December so much and now it's not even that cold I guess. It fits the pattern of last winter where all the hope was long range only to vanish.

I've never had hope for December though really because it's been a very long time since I've seen frozen precip during it
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But hyping is what we do best in the SE!
 
Robert West said:
Yeh there other post got the rounds big time on Facebook which basically looked like a copy cat of Brad P's outlook. I'd take 3-6 inches of snow and call that a massive win for CAE though.
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Take the low end of those and its certainly possible. CAE had 4.2 in 13-14. 6 in Charlotte is more than doable. Greenville is laughable though. 15 inches? Yeah cut that in half if it's a good winter.
 
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