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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby

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SD said:
Not going to lie, I like a cold Christmas but I'd probably take today over 35 with a NW wind at 25 where being outside just isn't an option

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Why you gotta bring the NW wind into this? :)

Seriously, if it was 35 with a NW wind at 25, I'd definitely be out in that mess.
 
surprised nobody mentioned this little gem on the 18z GFS.
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Folks, the grinch has stolen Christmas from the Carolinas. What a shame
 
Someone tell ------------- Santa Clause isn’t real plz he's tracking a myth and spreading scientifically wrong information to the community!!!
 
Ollie Williams said:
surprised nobody mentioned this little gem on the 18z GFS.
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Dang, that’s 2 Drunk Happy Hour runs in a row with accumulating snow way out in the long range way down here where it hardly ever happens in reality. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen that even on the drunk GFS. Of course, the timing is different with yesterday’s 18Z blizzard being on 1/4 while today’s 18Z snow is on 1/6.
 
GaWx said:
Dang, that’s 2 Drunk Happy Hour runs in a row with accumulating snow way out in the long range way down here where it hardly ever happens in reality. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen that even on the drunk GFS. Of course, the timing is different with yesterday’s 18Z blizzard being on 1/4 while today’s 18Z snow is on 1/6.
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I think what we can takeaway from the gfs. Is that there will be a threat to watch in the jan3-7 timeframe. It may turn out to be just rain or suppressed to far south. But I think there something to the noise the gfs is making. At least a time period to watch.


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Lickwx said:
Isn’t your average in the 60s this time of year ? On average you will be wearing shorts and a T-shirt in Savannah Georgia most of the year .
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Average high now is low 60s but that’s not warm enough for me for shorts/T shirt. I usually need 70s for that. About to walk now with it near 58-60. Walks won’t be much cooler than this for awhile but it is nice with a pleasantly cool breeze.
 
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Jessy89 said:
I think what we can takeaway from the gfs. Is that there will be a threat to watch in the jan3-7 timeframe. It may turn out to be just rain or suppressed to far south. But I think there something to the noise the gfs is making. At least a time period to watch.


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The GFS making noise means nothing these days beyond day 5, unless the Euro shows shows something.
 
Waiting on kids to fall asleep

Eerie how similar the MJO from last year to this year is modeled to be. Last year Jan 1 MJO started on ph 4/5 line, quickly looked through 6-8-cod and back to 4. Today’s EPS doing the same thing.


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I was so busy with visiting family and didn't even really think about models that seeing that the 18z GFS came up with something crazy again was a pleasant surprise.... Even if it's unlikely.

But you can even halfway look and see that it has no idea wtf to do even if it's funny.
 
NoSnowATL said:
Merry Christmas
10 minutes trying to learn how to ride a bike
Daughters: Dad, I’m done
Me: you need to practice
Daughters: No, just tell Santa we need motorcycles instead, this is too hard.
Me: ok I’ll go walk into traffic.


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lol

Me: “We’re not going back inside until you learn to ride this damn bicycle.”
 
Maybe 2020 will finally end the streak of mild Decembers...or at least I hope so. I would like to see a transition back to -ENSO, we seem to get cooler Decembers in cool neutral/La Nina. ENSO has been consistently in this pseudo-borderline-Nino state since mid-2018 aside from a brief cooling period in July-September.
 
I’ve seen 3 posts on twitter of the 300+ hour GFS and people actually hoping for it (not joking around)
 
There’s a lot of noise for Jan 3-7th timeframe. We watch it and see what happens. No legit threat yet in fact where yet to have a legit threat this season.


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It’s not as simple as this but it’s basically what we needs. Green is good and red is bad. MJO wants to stay in red more then green. Yes we might had a 7-10 day window in January but she heads to red where she wants to stay because of the active IOD. I don’t think January will do it and February doesn’t look great but might be ok I’ve she can come back to the green side. Yes it’s my opinion and I’m not a Met but I’ve seen this movie before and I’m going on past winters like this one. I was wrong on my prediction and I was wrong last year. I look forward to some strong ninos and la ninas. This weak crap is poop. Merry Christmas


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