BAMWXone day it’s gonna get cold , 24 hours later there is a problem , back to cold . Is BAMWX really Judah ???? Asking for a friend
Keep in mind that BAMWX has both energy as well as weenie clients just as JB does. Whether or not that biases them toward or gets them more excited about predicting cold more often than they should can’t be proven, but is something I’m wary about at this time of year. I’ve seen some of Michael Clark’s videos/posts and he clearly gets more excited about predicting cold than predicting mild. Same with JB and Judah as well as Cosgrove. And that goes for most of the active posters here including myself. They all are affected by the same bug of getting more excited about cold potential. The key however toward maintaining forecasting credibility is not letting this excitement actually bias one toward too cold forecasts. Maxar is an example of a company with zero bias toward forecasting cold (or mild for that matter). If you read Maxar and then read JB/Judah/BAMWX/Cosgrove side by side, you’d see the stark differences. That’s why I post Maxar thoughts from time to time. I have a lot of respect for their objectivity. If they or some other objective company/person predicts cold, then you can feel confident it really is coming. I think a lot of NWS mets can also be included in the objectivity bucket.
*Edit: A great clue as to whether or not a company is objective is whether or not the cold bias of cold biased models is mentioned. When was the last time that JB mentioned cold bias of anything? It is rare. In contrast, Maxar does it frequently.
Maxar has consistently been warning about another winter kept from being cold in the SE US by the SER based on the -GLAAM/SER correlation. I have no choice but to consider this as a very realistic possibility. Without them, I’d know nothing about this.
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