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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby

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I still think things look good to see some snow in my neck of the woods this month. Maybe next week won't work out, but the pattern looks great for potential, and that's all you can ask for. I think at least one of those potential storms that show up on the models is going to become reality before the month is over.
 
BIG FROSTY said:
Deer hunting? or Bird hunting? Good luck what ever you're hunting!!!
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Pheasant and Deer . A buddy at our corporate office in Des Moines is obsessed with pheasant hunting . The thought of walking through fields in the middle of winter in Iowa is less than exciting . But , he has heated deer stands !!!


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If any storm happens it will be late December,the next few are close but the pattern isn’t there yet. January is coming.


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Claycochaser said:
I dont think this will constitute banter...
Look...I admire your unwavering confidence and you have, in fact, brought some good info to the thread. The problem people are having, however, is that your exuberance is also bringing bad info into the thread. Firstly, your language suggests supreme confidence. That kind of confidence, without a hint of doubt, and many instances of hyperbolic wording is generally considered careless in the weather community. Secondly, your method of "blending" models is certainly not consistent with common model blending tactics such as those used by the NWS or WPC. You cant just select individual model runs from several different models at widely varying timeframes that support your prediction. That is not blending. That is cherry picking. Lastly, and perhaps the most irritating to me is your "model". A MS paint picture of a predicted low track does not a model make. Unless you have a powerful supercomputer running an algorithmic program that you have written and you are feeding it many thousands of data points from your massive network of surface and atmospheric observations (among many other things), then you do not have a computer model. So please stop calling it such. I thank you for your enthusiasm in weather forecasts and weather in general but I think I speak for many on this forum in requesting that you consider toning down the hyperbole and tempering your confidence a bit. Perhaps then we can all get along as we trudge through the always difficult southern winter.

At the end of the day, I really hope you are correct and will be the first to congratulate you if your forecast verifies. Thanks. Carry on.
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How is this novel not banter? So because you and others disagree with what his opinion is on a system he should change his tone?? Haha..Do his opinions really effect you that much?
 
I think some folks just like to troll and be Debbie Downer all the time for some reason.
 
Claycochaser said:
I dont think this will constitute banter...
Look...I admire your unwavering confidence and you have, in fact, brought some good info to the thread. The problem people are having, however, is that your exuberance is also bringing bad info into the thread. Firstly, your language suggests supreme confidence. That kind of confidence, without a hint of doubt, and many instances of hyperbolic wording is generally considered careless in the weather community. Secondly, your method of "blending" models is certainly not consistent with common model blending tactics such as those used by the NWS or WPC. You cant just select individual model runs from several different models at widely varying timeframes that support your prediction. That is not blending. That is cherry picking. Lastly, and perhaps the most irritating to me is your "model". A MS paint picture of a predicted low track does not a model make. Unless you have a powerful supercomputer running an algorithmic program that you have written and you are feeding it many thousands of data points from your massive network of surface and atmospheric observations (among many other things), then you do not have a computer model. So please stop calling it such. I thank you for your enthusiasm in weather forecasts and weather in general but I think I speak for many on this forum in requesting that you consider toning down the hyperbole and tempering your confidence a bit. Perhaps then we can all get along as we trudge through the always difficult southern winter.

At the end of the day, I really hope you are correct and will be the first to congratulate you if your forecast verifies. Thanks. Carry on.
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So because you and others disagree with what his opinion is on a system he should change his tone?? Haha..Do his opinions really effect you that much?
 
JMB said:
So because you and others disagree with what his opinion is on a system he should change his tone?? Haha..Do his opinions really effect you that much?
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So you report claycochaser for a banter post and then you make a banter post yourself. Hmmmm???

The member was stating his opinion on the post which should have been copied and put in the whamby thread. People is open to opinion on this thread as long as they are not making threats to the other posters.
 
Honestly, I still think that a light event with Tuesday/Wednesday system is still a go. Kinda like last month with some back side turn over to light snow.
 
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