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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby

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whatalife said:
I guess we’re not getting the snowstorm that was predicted for next week.?.That’s a shocker!


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Yeah, folks will learn how cold rain, I mean winter storms work in the SE soon enough, with the usual exception being the mountains. It's hard to get snow, . . . when the LP goes NW of you! I always wait to about the day or so before a "winter storm" is forecast for my area to even raise an eyebrow now.
 
Looking at the models slowly getting worse, and this is face I express because it’s nothing new, it doesn’t even make me upset nomore ?923188CE-8A54-4501-B346-BB2D58A5A2E3.jpeg
 
Claycochaser said:
I dont think this will constitute banter...
Look...I admire your unwavering confidence and you have, in fact, brought some good info to the thread. The problem people are having, however, is that your exuberance is also bringing bad info into the thread. Firstly, your language suggests supreme confidence. That kind of confidence, without a hint of doubt, and many instances of hyperbolic wording is generally considered careless in the weather community. Secondly, your method of "blending" models is certainly not consistent with common model blending tactics such as those used by the NWS or WPC. You cant just select individual model runs from several different models at widely varying timeframes that support your prediction. That is not blending. That is cherry picking. Lastly, and perhaps the most irritating to me is your "model". A MS paint picture of a predicted low track does not a model make. Unless you have a powerful supercomputer running an algorithmic program that you have written and you are feeding it many thousands of data points from your massive network of surface and atmospheric observations (among many other things), then you do not have a computer model. So please stop calling it such. I thank you for your enthusiasm in weather forecasts and weather in general but I think I speak for many on this forum in requesting that you consider toning down the hyperbole and tempering your confidence a bit. Perhaps then we can all get along as we trudge through the always difficult southern winter.

At the end of the day, I really hope you are correct and will be the first to congratulate you if your forecast verifies. Thanks. Carry on.
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Well said! I agree with all but the congratulate part. We shouldn’t reward someone for the right answer if their method is a complete fallacy. Reward skill, accuracy and reproducibility, not luck.
 
Claycochaser said:
I dont think this will constitute banter...
Look...I admire your unwavering confidence and you have, in fact, brought some good info to the thread. The problem people are having, however, is that your exuberance is also bringing bad info into the thread. Firstly, your language suggests supreme confidence. That kind of confidence, without a hint of doubt, and many instances of hyperbolic wording is generally considered careless in the weather community. Secondly, your method of "blending" models is certainly not consistent with common model blending tactics such as those used by the NWS or WPC. You cant just select individual model runs from several different models at widely varying timeframes that support your prediction. That is not blending. That is cherry picking. Lastly, and perhaps the most irritating to me is your "model". A MS paint picture of a predicted low track does not a model make. Unless you have a powerful supercomputer running an algorithmic program that you have written and you are feeding it many thousands of data points from your massive network of surface and atmospheric observations (among many other things), then you do not have a computer model. So please stop calling it such. I thank you for your enthusiasm in weather forecasts and weather in general but I think I speak for many on this forum in requesting that you consider toning down the hyperbole and tempering your confidence a bit. Perhaps then we can all get along as we trudge through the always difficult southern winter.

At the end of the day, I really hope you are correct and will be the first to congratulate you if your forecast verifies. Thanks. Carry on.
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So because you and others disagree with what his opinion is on a system he should change his tone?? Haha..Do his opinions really effect you that much?
 
Sleet City USA said:
Ah I see we've fizzled out overnight, as per usual
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We do it to ourselves. I don't think there was never a strong storm possibility with this one IMO. Only a maybe kinda sorta coulda, from 2-3 op runs...of different models? Can't run with those.

Get the EURO to show multiple runs of a storm and its ensembles to agree with a significant uptick in snow solutions for multiple runs. Then it's legit.
 
6 Days into Meteorological Winter and everyone has left the room. Lol. I’m still very much hopeful for a better Winter than last season. It might not be snowing but it’s definitely raining in my neck of the woods today. Keep that up all season and get some good cold air in place...game on!!
 
SnowNiner said:
We do it to ourselves. I don't think there was never a strong storm possibility with this one IMO. Only a maybe kinda sorta coulda, from 2-3 op runs...of different models? Can't run with those.

Get the EURO to show multiple runs of a storm and its ensembles to agree with a significant uptick in snow solutions for multiple runs. Then it's legit.
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Be careful. I got flamed yesterday for saying it wasn't a legitimate threat because of an op run or two with little ensemble support.
 
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