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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby

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WxWatch said:
Update: Below is one of my manually produced models that is based on a blend of the Euro, GFS, GEFS and EPS. The timing is off on the models, this is why I did not include the timing of the track of low, but I will input the timing eventually. I have calculated numbers to generate the mean low pressure values. I also included the frozen precip. sectors. The reason why I think the low will take that track is due to the upper-level winds. The fast jet streak will be north of the low pressure, the low would "ride" along underneath the jet. I'm predicting that east of the mountains the p-type would mostly be ZR, however, a winter mix could be possible. For AL, North and Central GA, eastern TN/western NC I'm predicting heavy snowfall. Amounts are unknown at this time due to model disagreement.

View attachment 27165


About the timing of the low pressure development: Soon as the convergence happens entirely with the polar and STJ, that's when the low will develop quickly. The timing of the full convergence is approximately at 06z Wednesday. So, that tells that the low would begin to develop around that time. If we look at the surface on the Euro valid at 06z Wed, rain shower activity over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico with a 1016 air pressure at the lowest. This is the indication of the low pressure developing on the end of the boundary.

View attachment 27168

Overrunning: The models are slowly coming into agreement that there will be overrunning before the low kicks out. As the convergence begins taking place, moisture will re-develop early as Tuesday afternoon into/Wednesday morning. Looking at the jet stream winds at Tue 18z, the convergence starts taking place. Below at the surface, the overrunning starts taking place as well, due to the beginnings of the convergence.

View attachment 27175View attachment 27177
Click to expand...
I do this with all the respect to you for putting yourself out there. No matter what happens.

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WxWatch said:
Update: Below is one of my manually produced models that is based on a blend of the Euro, GFS, GEFS and EPS. The timing is off on the models, this is why I did not include the timing of the track of low, but I will input the timing eventually. I have calculated numbers to generate the mean low pressure values. I also included the frozen precip. sectors. The reason why I think the low will take that track is due to the upper-level winds. The fast jet streak will be north of the low pressure, the low would "ride" along underneath the jet. I'm predicting that east of the mountains the p-type would mostly be ZR, however, a winter mix could be possible. For AL, North and Central GA, eastern TN/western NC I'm predicting heavy snowfall. Amounts are unknown at this time due to model disagreement.

View attachment 27165


About the timing of the low pressure development: Soon as the convergence happens entirely with the polar and STJ, that's when the low will develop quickly. The timing of the full convergence is approximately at 06z Wednesday. So, that tells that the low would begin to develop around that time. If we look at the surface on the Euro valid at 06z Wed, rain shower activity over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico with a 1016 air pressure at the lowest. This is the indication of the low pressure developing on the end of the boundary.

View attachment 27168

Overrunning: The models are slowly coming into agreement that there will be overrunning before the low kicks out. As the convergence begins taking place, moisture will re-develop early as Tuesday afternoon into/Wednesday morning. Looking at the jet stream winds at Tue 18z, the convergence starts taking place. Below at the surface, the overrunning starts taking place as well, due to the beginnings of the convergence.

View attachment 27175View attachment 27177
Click to expand...
My guy, I hope for your sake you are correct.
I do respect you backing up your claims!
 
I want a case study on the wind event early this morning. School will reopen as normal in Ashe despite the high school roof being damaged. 106.5mph at Grandfather. We could have nearly set a state record without any high wind warnings in place at a unusual time of day 1am till 3am in December (non tropical or Fall).
 
Glad we have some potential to follow already. It's the moat wonderful time of the year.
 
it doesn’t take a genius to know he’s overly putting his ass on the line trying to determine ptype this far out when the variables are still changing. I wish his posts were in the digital model thread and some of his early advanced drawings were in banter. Unfortunately it’s too late and he has a small following because it’s what they want to hear $$$
 
Just going to let the clock run out on this one. Attention will fade for most metro people in Atlanta, Charlotte and Raleigh. Usually does and safe to say this over some of the maps he’s drawn. Can’t wait till the thread is back to normal trying to find a pattern over a specific storm.
 
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