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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby

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tramadoc said:
You know that there is no “NW trend”, right? It’s the models correcting. It’s not like it’s supposed to be going this way and then all of a sudden it starts “trending”. The data is finally correct for the storm and time period and it goes where it was going to go all along. That’s why some systems keep going the way they’re modeled in the long term. All data that is input is correct and thus it continues the way it was originally modeled.
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It could be because the northern stream is modeled too strong and suppressed ( cold bias ?) then it corrects to more climatological sound solutions with less suppression ?
 
Gfs says enjoy your rain I'm not seeing any winter storms coming anytime soon imo
 
To think the GFS has any specifics close to verifying at this range is LOL, worthy. I'm gonna grab my popcorn and watch this unfold as the 12z runs don't produce stupidly huge clown maps. Everybody jump!!
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Ugh, tired of relying on CAD for a winter storm...can we not just get a classic Miller A? It's been such a long time.
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I'm hoping we see that in January. To even be tracking anything this early is quite a surprise for me. I originally expected this month to be one that sets up a better pattern later down the road. CAD is tricky and I would rather see snow anyway.
 
Storm5 said:
just sitting here waiting on the meltdown in the main thread after that GFS run
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Crazy how some are so quick to meltdown after one bad run this far out, especially when the other runs since last night were good.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Crazy how some are so quick to meltdown after one bad run this far out, especially when the other runs since last night were good.
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Meteorologist1999 said:
This happens every year where people get excited over one or two runs then lose it after one wrong run.
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I don't entirely disagree but people get overly excited over just one good run too... it really does go both ways.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Ugh, tired of relying on CAD for a winter storm...can we not just get a classic Miller A? It's been such a long time.
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Yep, we lost that that hope in November along with the -NAO. With EPO, it's CAD Miller B hybrid best case scenario. I'm with you. I'm still waiting for a snowstorm that runs from TX to the Carolinas. Not until we get blocking though I'm afraid.
 
packfan98 said:
Day 12 setup looking good on the GFS for the upper south.
prateptype_cat.conus.png
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Did we replace last year's can with a new one, pretty sure it was dinged up fairly bad?
 
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