• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Failbruary Thread

Cold Miser said:
Considering the GFS's record at H5 5-6 days out, I'm not that intrigued.
Click to expand...

Does that mean you want to start the thread?

Anyway, this goes to show that if we can just get the moisture and cold to better meet up during this prime time climo period of mid Feb, we may get something big! We have the +PNA and prime climo on our side at least.
 
Broken024 said:
Probably gone tomorrow. But not impossible ?
Click to expand...
Crazy thing is seeing this under 7 days, we all would be getting really excited if this was the good old days… but now things are so strange. Idk if I’d even feel comfortable 2 days out with this look anymore.
 
GFS wave pass is as good as we can do in this setup me thinks. The initial southern stream piece moving NE out of the gulf is likely to be too warm (much like today), but a snowier version of last weekend’s storm with the northern stream dropping down would be the high bar.
 
Crazy the GFS just spat out a solution that's way better than any of it's ensemble members have shown for this storm. 00z Ukmet looks pretty similar too, but not quite as cutoff/amped. fingers crossed some of the ensemble members start jumping on board tonight.
 
rburrel2 said:
Crazy the GFS just spat out a solution that's way better than any of it's ensemble members have shown for this storm. 00z Ukmet looks pretty similar too, but not quite as cutoff/amped. fingers crossed some of the ensemble members start jumping on board tonight.
Click to expand...
UKMet was indeed similar to the GFS, just not as deep with the trough. UKMet has 558 height line in N FL while GFS has 552 ht line there. UKMet was a touch deeper this run though
 
GEFS is a slight improvement on the mean snowfall map. Still not very impressed with this system though. One or two members are similar to the Op, the rest are weaker or hang the energy back .
 
rburrel2 said:
GEFS is a slight improvement on the mean snowfall map. Still not very impressed with this system though. One or two members are similar to the Op, the rest are weaker or hang the energy back .
Click to expand...
Still almost all are within spitting distance of a bigger storm just some missed phasing and stuff that clearly won’t be worked out at this range .. love seeing the pieces all on the board though
 
The good thing is the models (Ukmet,CMC,ICON,GFS) seem to have converged much closer together on the evolution of the system. And the edge of those goal posts of that evolution include the chance for a major winter storm for us. Even the center of the goal posts produce a decent event for some people on the board.

Would be really, really huge tonight if the Euro could spit out a GFS-like solution.
 
Looks like the Ukie is leaning toward the GFS in the early going. Not as amped, and, of course, it doesn't yet go out to the time frame where the GFS is walloping folks in this neck of the woods. Think of it as what could be ... and wait until things settle out. But it's hard to sleep when the model plants this on your doorstep.
FLDGU7BWUAI5TV0
1644296798046.png
 
Keep this in mind: ATL’s most prime big SN/IP climo back to 1879 based on number of storms concentrated in one week is 2/10-16 with 9 major storms. This storm on the 0Z GFS is progged to hit ATL smack dab in the middle of that period (2/13). At ATL and much of the SE, a +PNA is one of the most favorable, if not the most favorable index, for a big one (back to 1950, the start of that daily stat). These don’t necessarily mean there will be a storm at all, but they’re encouraging to keep in mind for the chances.

Other big storms during that week at ATL include 1934, 2010, and 2014 among others. 1934 is a similar ENSO analog by the way.
 
Last edited:
Maybe, just maybe instead of a “Failbruary” we can have a “Triumphbruary”. Yes, I googled to find the best opposite of “fail” here. It’s a reach I know...


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
Several GEFS members picking up on the possibility gives me more hope than I originally had. We also tend to have our best snows on the heels of an upcoming pattern change as well. One last hooray before the switch to more warmth.
 
iGRXY said:
Several GEFS members picking up on the possibility gives me more hope than I originally had. We also tend to have our best snows on the heels of an upcoming pattern change as well. One last hooray before the switch to more warmth.
Click to expand...
I personally would rather have the euro and eps on our side. I haven’t seen one EPS post on here.
 
SNOWMANN said:
Looking better and something I've noticed over the years is there seems to be storms on or about specific dates throughout winter like the Jan 15-20 and always around Valentine's day something I've been wanting to talk with our bookkeeper Larry about ?
Click to expand...
I smell a new thread soon. The W SE is already being threatened by this in only 4 days (2/12) and the E SE in only 5 days (2/13).

This storm is threatening ATL on 2/13. ATL has had a whopping NINE major SN/IP within 3 days of 2/13 making it the most concentrated major SN/IP climo of the entire winter:

1) 2/12-13/2014: cold neutral ENSO/ -1.1 PNA/+0.8 NAO/+0.9 AO/MJO COD

2) 2/12/2010: waning strong El Nino/+0.7 PNA/-1.0 NAO/-4.8 AO/MJO phase 8

3) 2/15/1958: strong El Nino/+1.2 PNA/-0.2 NAO/-1.9 AO

4) 2/10/1934: waning moderate La Nina similar to now

5) 2/14-15/1902: cold neutral ENSO

6) 2/11-12/1899: weak La Nina

7) 2/15-16/1895: waning weak La Nina

8) 2/11-12/1895: waning weak La Nina

9) 2/15/1885: waning weak El Nino

**And these are just the big storms as there are plenty of not as big events also during this period.
 
Last edited:
GaWx said:
I smell a new thread soon. The W SE is already being threatened by this in only 4 days (2/12) and the E SE in only 5 days (2/13).

This storm is threatening ATL on 2/13. ATL has had a whopping NINE major SN/IP within 3 days of 2/13 making it the most concentrated major SN/IP climo of the entire winter:

1) 2/12-13/2014: cold neutral ENSO/ -1.1 PNA/+0.8 NAO/+0.9 AO/MJO COD

2) 2/12/2010: waning strong El Nino/+0.7 PNA/-1.0 NAO/-4.8 AO/MJO phase 8

3) 2/15/1958: strong El Nino/+1.2 PNA/-0.2 NAO/-1.9 AO

4) 2/10/1934: waning moderate La Nina

5) 2/14-15/1902: cold neutral ENSO

6) 2/11-12/1899: weak La Nina

7) 2/15-16/1895: waning weak La Nina

8) 2/11-12/1895: waning weak La Nina

9) 2/15/1885: waning weak El Nino
Click to expand...
Would you not want to see the EPS on board before we start a thread?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top