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Pattern Failbruary Thread

Some stout parameters tommorow afternoon. Very high SRH helicity. Don't sleep on tommorow guys ? per the 00z HRRRehi03.us_se.pngsfctd.us_se.pngrefcmp.us_se (1).pngHRRRSE_con_1kmhel_031.pngHRRRSE_con_3kmhel_031.png
 
Shetley? That you??
lol. He's gonna be epic this summer. I think I'm right in stating we usually run dry bones on dyeing La Nina. Could be totally wrong here. maybe Gawx will see and correct me, he's a guru on the nino / nina affects for the SE. I just hate drought with a passion . I'll whine an tolerate heat/humidity. Price you pay living in the south. But the drought wrecks my agriculture/horticulture hobbies
 
It’s 28 degrees out right now but the birds are singing like crazy which I haven’t heard in awhile. They know it’s supposed to hit 50 today. I checked and it only hit 50 or higher 7 times in the month of January. Most of them at the beginning of the month. It really has been winter!
 
20220125_usdm.png
 
Going forward I see some signs of cold but I’m starting to think the area around mount airy nc south west into Shelby nc could start to dry out and just barely miss a lot of potential events
 
Well, ive moved on from the sunday fail, at least we have this beautiful looking pattern ahead View attachment 112378View attachment 112379

Thread name checks out for Sunday!!

Really nice we're extending our chances into February, the cold looks like it's going to be there on the GEFS. But I'm still afraid the trough looks like it's setting up a tick too far east. Not enough time to give vorts time to dive and dig under us. Worried we're going to continue with the theme of vorts that are just a strung out mess until they're in Bermuda.
 
I was promised a torchy February. All I see is non stop cold through the 18th. Where's my ------- torch?
View attachment 112394

ENSO analogs 1985, 1972, 1934, 1899, and 1895 have been suggesting there wouldn’t be a mild February in the SE and that alternatively it could end up cold. The still largely unknown second half of Feb will tell the tale as right now the first half is headed toward fairly close to normal in the central to E SE with the current mild followed by several days of cold followed by a few days of mild with a return to cold lurking at midmonth. It looks quite cold in the central US to Midwest to as far east as W TN to Mississippi for the first half of this month overall in this +TNH/-WPO pattern.
 
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