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Pattern Failbruary Thread

Myfrotho704_ said:
TORCH View attachment 113280
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Combo of MJO (phase 4), NAO/AO (remaining strongly positive), and PNA (headed from positive to negative) still suggests warmth dominating the SE US after around 2/20-21. If the MJO would move steadily enough, perhaps it will get around back to the cold March phases of 8-1-2-3 by 3/10 or so (allowing an average of 4-5 days per phase) and then lasting til late March. By then, prime climo for SE wintry precip will have ended a week or so earlier. However, occasionally mid to late March has produced some notable SE storms like in 1914, 1924, 1940, 1960, 1971, 1974, 1981, 1983, 1993, and 2018. Of those, ATL had big mid to late March hits in 1924, 1960, 1971, 1983, and 1993. Also, I believe ATL had a nice one in the late 1800s though I have to check. So, about once every 12 or so years in a place like NC and about once every 25 years in ATL. For what it’s worth (not much admittedly), ATL is due. Keep hope alive as once every 12-25 years for something big and a good bit more often than that for something smaller means it isn’t just a pipe dream.
 
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Zander98al said:
May be a severe threat. Just saw a local meteorligist tweet about it. Been looking at the snow chance and didnt realize there may be severe weather down the line.
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Everything looks to be vertically stacked, looking more like a north Alabama into Kentucky and Arkansas/Tennessee threat right now though. Sounding out of Mississippi. Geez Louis better setup by far than the one last week. High ceiling event by the looks right now . A bit
of a skinny cape profile on the sounding though. But winter time events that's pretty good. 2022021012_GFS_177_31.34,-91.38_severe_ml.png
 
An impressive 6 of 20 GFS ensemble members(using COD weather members) have a direct winter storm hit for Upstate, SC in the 216-240hr timeframe. A few more members are a little too warm for SC, but give the NC piedmont a decent ice hit.
 
Intresting, may be a dryline associated with the system next week. How far east it makes. Don't know, usually your bigger events have a dry line associated with it. Tapping into all available moisture.
 
HSVweather said:
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May need a thread sometime in the next two days. Or at least when a outlined area is put up by the spc. Starting to get a more clear idea on a potential higher end event next week. Haven't checked the model consistency but GFS and euro are identical and it's 7 days out. Anything outside 7 days I wouldn't pay attention to, but where getting inside the fuzzy general idea forecast range lol.
 
Zander98al said:
May need a thread sometime in the next two days. Or at least when a outlined area is put up by the spc. Starting to get a more clear idea on a potential higher end event next week. Haven't checked the model consistency but GFS and euro are identical and it's 7 days out. Anything outside 7 days I wouldn't pay attention to, but where getting inside the fuzzy general idea forecast range lol.
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This system has my full attention this far out already
 
This event may be the real deal 18z GFS came out. A legit dryline, and shear and cape are pretty good. surface to 3km lapse rates are phenomenal. Cape will rise as we near the event but it's already nearing 1000j of sbcape. We may be looking at a beast. Big boys make a name for themselves far out.

Albeit the dryline is shown to fizzle out getting near the Louisiana Mississippi state line it looks like. And looks like it may transition from a closed low to a open low close to the severe weather timeframe. Some uncertainties. But potential for a big one is there.
 
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Zander98al said:
This event may be the real deal 18z GFS came out. A legit dryline, and shear and cape are pretty good. surface to 3km lapse rates are phenomenal. Cape will rise as we near the event but it's already nearing 1000j of sbcape. We may be looking at a beast. Big boys make a name for themselves far out.

Albeit the dryline is shown to fizzle out getting near the Louisiana Mississippi state line it looks like. And looks like it may transition from a closed low to a open low close to the severe weather timeframe. Some uncertainties. But potential for a big one is there.
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You got my vote to start a thread soon. Your all over these severe weather potential’s.
 
NWMSGuy said:
@Zander98al What area’s are you seeing big potential for with next weeks storm? Upper South / Lower South?
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Hard to say, still in a fuzzy idea phase. But my personal educated guess on experience. Says far south as the Louisiana marshes up to Kentucky. GFS only shows instability up to the Tennessee Alabama state line, but it's really hard to take that as gospel because of other environmental factors and history. GFS always underestimates cape at the begging and then slowly makes its way up. Kinda my idea on threat area as of now. Probably will extend further east some. But this is all a crapshoot being 7 days out. Just a fuzzy general idea. The marked area is where I would expect the higher risked area. Screenshot_20220210-193835-148.png
 
Zander98al said:
Hard to say, still in a fuzzy idea phase. But my personal educated guess on experience. Says far south as the Louisiana marshes up to Kentucky. GFS only shows instability up to the Tennessee Alabama state line, but it's really hard to take that as gospel because of other environmental factors and history. GFS always underestimates cape at the begging and then slowly makes its way up. Kinda my idea on threat area as of now. Probably will extend further east some. But this is all a crapshoot being 7 days out. Just a fuzzy general idea. The marked area is where I would expect the higher risked area. View attachment 113314
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Good follow-up! Will be interesting to see how this evolves. Concerning though that the GFS has been hanging to this idea for days now.
 
Euro shows the dryline making it further east. GFS disagrees. Very consistent model solutions between both the GFS and EURO
 
Assuming we score this weekend: We still got a shot, albeit the toughest of the year for next weekend to try and get the streak to 7 consecutives. GEFS and GFS keep showing on/off. The storm signal is there. Its all gonna be about HP getting in position/timing right without some pesky southern Canada low murking things up. We'll see. Gotta get #6 this Sunday first.

CFS says don't be thinking about planting no early garden. Keep some firewood on hand instead.
 
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whatalife said:
After seeing your post I had to go check my temps on my tempest. Since Jan. 1st I’ve had 29 days were my low was at or below 32°. It’s been a while since we’ve had a winter like this (imo).
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No kidding. We haven't had a ton of extreme cold only 4 teens but the consistency of the cold has been impressive for a 6 week period
 
SD said:
No kidding. We haven't had a ton of extreme cold only 4 teens but the consistency of the cold has been impressive for a 6 week period
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I don’t know if it’s true or not and I hope this will help cut down on the bug population for the summer. I’m also sure this summer will do its best to balance things out with two or three weeks of 100° weather. ?
 
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