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Pattern Failbruary Thread

KATL even semi honking??

The main focus has
been on the weekend where models have had quite a bit of
discrepancy and run-to-run inconsistency on how amplified the
upper trough gets over the region and amount of possible enhanced
moisture gets phased in. For this set of runs, the GFS
deterministic run is quite robust with even cutting off the upper
trough and allowing for significant snow potential enhanced with
a deformation axis by Sunday/Sunday night.
 
bigstick10 said:
KATL even semi honking??

The main focus has
been on the weekend where models have had quite a bit of
discrepancy and run-to-run inconsistency on how amplified the
upper trough gets over the region and amount of possible enhanced
moisture gets phased in. For this set of runs, the GFS
deterministic run is quite robust with even cutting off the upper
trough and allowing for significant snow potential enhanced with
a deformation axis by Sunday/Sunday night.
Click to expand...

Does sort of remind me of the mid January system where there were essentially two waves. 12z ensembles are going to either will this into existence or put it to bed.


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Wow!


-88 windchill. Shy of the record -101

Screen-Shot-2022-02-08-at-4.05.17-AM.png
 
The main indices, like yesterday, still imply that after the forecasted cold for the first half of next week that much of 2/17-22+ will more than likely be mild with a declining PNA at least toward neutral in combo with a raging +AO and a pretty strong +NAO then. Also, the MJO at least appears to be headed for the often mild phase 4 by around 2/22 at the latest. So, golfers, get your clubs ready. Then perhaps we get one or two last good shots of cold in March, which happens in a lot of years.

So based on this, let’s hope the 2/12-14 system turns out to be something of note for at least some of the SE because there’s no telling whether or not it could turn out to be the last widespread wintry threat for the SE this winter. Regardless, climo says that the chances of significant wintry precip for the bulk of the SE don’t start dropping significantly until after the first few days of March. ATL’s absolute peak major snow/sleet climo is 2/10-16 based on number of storms (an impressive 9 of them have occurred then and that doesn’t even include the many moderate or weaker storms) although a good number of major storms have occurred after that through March 2nd. RDU’s absolute peak in frequency of 6”+ snow actually doesn’t end til March 3rd as they’ve had 8 big ones 2/26-3/3 along with many moderate or weak then.
 
Last edited:
SD said:
Best mega frost of the season this morning
Click to expand...

packfan98 said:
Same. Covered everything including the tops of houses. 3 of these would equal a trace of snow no doubt.
Click to expand...
Yeah solid white this morning, some trees got coated as well, definitely agree was the most mega frost of the season. Usually means warmer temps are on the way
 
For those wanting warmth, the indices couldn’t be in a much better position for 2/21+ with typically warm MJO phase 4 forecasted by both EPS and GEFS, trend toward slight -PNA, a strong +AO, and a borderline moderate/strong +NAO . So, we’d lose the current chilly +PNA/-WPO/phase 3 MJO combo that has been counteracting the +AO/+NAO and giving us ups and downs/averaging near normal. Get the golf clubs ready! Hopefully, we’d still get at least one good cold period in March.
 
Severe weather looking good for Tennessee and could spill over into Carolina’s at night. At least feb has something to offer and track
 
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