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Pattern Failbruary Thread

Myfrotho704_ said:
Well this +PNA pattern is starting to show signs of breaking towards mid Month with that big low on/north of AK, typically a precursor to a bad pattern, all fits the MJO, I’d say we have 2-2.5 more weeks or so of opportunity
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I thought just a day ago everyone in here was saying the pattern was going to be great again mid month? Now it’s gonna turn to crap mid month?
 
Stephenb888 said:
I thought just a day ago everyone in here was saying the pattern was going to be great again mid month? Now it’s gonna turn to crap mid month?
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You do know next weekend/the beginning of the week is around mid month right ? That’s still way in the 2.5 week window….. you good ? Haha
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Well this +PNA pattern is starting to show signs of breaking towards mid Month with that big low on/north of AK, typically a precursor to a bad pattern, all fits the MJO, I’d say we have 2-2.5 more weeks or so of opportunity
Click to expand...
Maybe we can pull together a big storm as the PNA breaks down
 
rburrel2 said:
Looks lik the 12z ICON was about to go boom with a phase sparking a deep gulf low at 180hrs..
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As depicted, that looks like an Alabama westward threat to me. There is no cold in place east of the Appalachians and the low would be moving NE from Louisiana it would seem. That said, it's good to see the potential for a big storm to continue to show up off and on in this period.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
As depicted, that looks like an Alabama westward threat to me. There is no cold in place east of the Appalachians and the low would be moving NE from Louisiana it would seem. That said, it's good to see the potential for a big storm to continue to show up off and on in this period.
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Eh debatable .. I think that high pressure is advancing fairly rapidly while the storm is developing I could see most of the SE getting in on that if it progressed forward .. phases are always weird and sloppy though so who knows
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
As depicted, that looks like an Alabama westward threat to me. There is no cold in place east of the Appalachians and the low would be moving NE from Louisiana it would seem. That said, it's good to see the potential for a big storm to continue to show up off and on in this period.
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Meh, I dunno about that. The trough is still positive tilted and you've got nice confluence in the northeast and high pressure moving in tandem with the phasing trough/storm.

I'm not sure it gets Eastern NC involved but as depicted I don't think there's a chance the strengthening low is cutting west of the apps or anything. More likely it's a coastal of some sort, imo.
 
Colder vs prior runs coming in for midmonth on 12Z GFS? Let’s see! Two Arctic highs.

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??
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