I think everyone needs to remember that the op and ensemble mean will differ quite a bit on temps because the Mean is a mean of many individual member runs. The OP showing a warm period and the mean showing a cold does not mean they don’t support each other because the mean(especially at longer range) is likely skewing the temps over several days due to the timing and strength of each member being different.
Looking at the prolonged pattern at H5 on the ensemble mean is much better than temps and will show you much better if the OP and the ensembles support each other.
Looking at the prolonged pattern at H5 on the ensemble mean is much better than temps and will show you much better if the OP and the ensembles support each other.