Pattern Failbruary Thread

[Myfrotho704_]

Like @SD said, if there’s any signs of a warmer period (torch/southeast ridge) it’s likely past the middle of February/late February where forcing becomes more centric around 120E & less around the Indian Ocean, that MJO look honestly sets March up to a torch looking at & taking this face value, given 120E forcing in March often means really warm, until mid-later feb we are stuck with convection more centric in phase 3/the IO

 

[GaWx]

12Z GFS has today as the last mild day in the Carolinas for awhile with most of 2/5-9 BN and 2/10-11 NN. 2/12-13 does get back AN but then the coldest of the month to date comes 2/14-15. Models have been consistently going with potent cold around 2/14-15. Then 2/16 is NN followed by torch 2/17-20 but that’s in fantasyland and quite subject to change. So overall, there will be ups and downs with no overall torch and no overall cold. Going to be hard for me to get my -3 or colder for 2/1-14 at RDU and ATL. Chances low now as would require colder changes vs models/forecasts. About best bet for now is near normal to -1 2/1-14 but not giving up yet on -3.

 

[LickWx]

77 degrees in Greenville , 73 Wilmington , back up to 66 at RDU probably eek out 70 before it cools off . Dews in 60s across the board.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

77 degrees in Greenville , 73 Wilmington , back up to 66 at RDU probably eek out 70 before it cools off . Dews in 60s across the board.

Makes me miss December, knowing this is gone tomorrow for a while

 

[ATLwxfan]

Definitely a colder look in the mid range but without a -NAO might be tough outside of the upper south. I guess we shall see.


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[Stormlover]

 

[tennessee storm]

has a good chance of becoming much larger get that baby to phase, so close

 

[GaWx]

Looking at indices from a cold lover’s perspective, the PNA still looks pretty good but the AO and NAO are downright bad. The MJO forecasts are a battle between the GEFS phase 3 and the Euro phase 4. The Euro has been struggling. Phase 3 would be much better than 4. So, I’m pulling for phase 3:

 

[crecre9]

Very light snow in Huntsville at the moment.

 

[olhausen]

has a good chance of becoming much larger get that baby to phase, so close

The gfs has been consistent in showing some snow for us in the long range. Of course it’s in fantasy land but the majority of runs keep laying down some snow around the same time in middle Tennessee. As for the next week it looks cold and dry.

 

[Stormlover]

The gfs has been consistent in showing some snow for us in the long range. Of course it’s in fantasy land but the majority of runs keep laying down some snow around the same time in middle Tennessee. As for the next week it looks cold and dry.
View attachment 112716

this is for late next weekend

 

[GaWx]

The 12Z GEFS and EPS 11-15 are significantly warmer than prior runs.

 

[Tarheel1]

The 12Z GEFS and EPS 11-15 are significantly warmer than prior runs.

View attachment 112721View attachment 112722

They will change tomorrow

 

[tennessee storm]

The 12Z GEFS and EPS 11-15 are significantly warmer than prior runs.

View attachment 112721View attachment 112722

Torch city

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Torch city

Where torch ?

 

[GaWx]

Torch city

Actually the runs are near normal in the 11-15 as those are changes, not actuals. The runs from 12 hours earlier were largely BN. But regardless, I see why you like these maps.

 

[GaWx]

Where torch ?View attachment 112724 View attachment 112723View attachment 112725
View attachment 112726

Where torch ?View attachment 112724 View attachment 112723View attachment 112725View attachment 112726

Agreed, neither is showing torch. The 11-15 itself, which is what I was posting warmer changes for, is near normal in the SE on both:

 

[Mitch West]

Kinda sucks we don't have anything to break down now. We've been spoiled the last month. Hopefully we have something to track again in the next week or so.

 

[GaWx]

Kinda sucks we don't have anything to break down now. We've been spoiled the last month. Hopefully we have something to track again in the next week or so.

Yep, the last few weeks have overall been one of the most exciting periods to be a winter wx lover in a very long time as far as having so many things to discuss forecastingwise/a good number of opportunities, and getting some good hits, especially in the Carolinas! The results weren’t always satisfying but the point is that it has not been the least bit boring. Most of the time it isn’t nearly that interesting for such a long period of time.

 

[SASQUATCH]

Flizzard warning Tuscaloosa!