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GEFS still being way south would give me pause if I was buying into the OPs northern solution
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Pattern Failbruary Thread
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Thursday and Friday look just about impossible to pin down around here right now. Stronger wedge and its 40s Thursday and around 60 Friday weaker wedge and its 60s Thursday and near 80 Friday
LickWx
Member
Seems most likely. I don't see enough rain to really lock it in but it looks strong enough to knock us back some
Yeah best not to bet against the euro .. most of the time .. it’s been wrong a lot more recently but it’s hard to call it an unreliable model like most .. it usually barks before everyone else bites. This just seems too cold though.. truly arctic barney stuff here
Source region for the impressive cold shot 
It's annoying how close Saturday night into Sunday is from being at least a sleet/snow event to rain for this area
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Oh, man, it's raining today. I wasn't expecting it to start so soon.
dsaur
Member
I'd love to see the 13th redux, and some 0 temps, to tell the mozzies to hybernate all summer
I haven't had the first teen yet, and that just ain't right! It's going to be bug city around here without some March help.
That Euro run though
?
Move along, nothing to see here.....
Pretty amazing what a well time phase can doMove along, nothing to see here.....
olhausen
Member
For the middle Tennessee folks. I believe most of this falls overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. Definitely be better to have it fall at night this late in the season. Obviously almost 7 days away but I believe the gfs did show this storm a few days ago before it lost it. That gives me a little bit more hope then normal I guess.
looks like the footprint of the EPS last nightMove along, nothing to see here.....
Of course this is after the modeled snow but still that's a serious arctic airmass for first of March
over it. When ??
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
As soon as the SER stops getting beat down. Juwan Howard got to leave it alone.
We still have a week of 70s ahead of us associated with a SER, other then a wedge day on Thursday, and this month looks to be AN
Euro was about to go for round 2 at the end of its run
if the front speeds up even slightly most of us in the piedmont would stay below 70 Thursday and Friday but overall quite an impressive warm week ahead of us for February standards!
Eps isn't that impressive maybe 5 that support the op
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
18z icon is def a step toward the 12z euro with the stronger slower lead wave
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
18z Gfs still says hell no! Boundary layer up in flames! But keeps the significant cold shot after. Skill scores still make me want to treat the Gfs like a child and I’ll toss due to Southern WX rules regarding 18z
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
18Z ENS and control looked quite a bit colder in regards to the weekend threat.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
GFS coming in much further south.
Far more interested in this look after if we can sneak some Pacific energy with the departing TPV, since it’s basically our 50/50 or confluence 
It’s important that we get a phase to determine whether or not this is rain or snow. A comparison between the 00z GFS and 12z Euro
Yeah Gfs has the same system the euro did for round 2 just slight variations due to round 1 differences
It is no wonder why the Feb and March threads have been so quiet for 5 hours: the 0Z GEFS, Euro, EPS, CMC, and GEPS all are significantly warmer/less cold and much less wintry vs 12Z for days 6+. Hopefully they'll switch back by 12Z today but not holding my breath.
Example: Remember those GFS and Euro runs giving a freeze well down into FL 3/1? Gone and no longer even close.
Example: Remember those GFS and Euro runs giving a freeze well down into FL 3/1? Gone and no longer even close.
This cold headfake is looking like the biggest since February 2021
Womp
LickWx
Member
I went to bed to 43/21 next week woke up nothing below 50 and a return to 60s mid week next week and still chancing 80 Friday. Quite the change . Wonder what changed , because it happened so suddenly on all the models .