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Pattern Failbruary Thread
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Yay Boston maxing out the snow scale again
wen torch?
Ok the consistency is getting crazy.
Stephenb888
Member
Is this a good look? Or just another NC late bloomer.
Could definitely be a good look. However lots of moving parts here and really all we need to take from these runs are a growing consistency of a very far south southern stream wave and energy diving in.
More GEFS members now showing the signal.
Keep in mind that mid February is close to the peak in frequency for major snowstorms in the SE as a whole as well as ATL in particular and deeper in the SE fwiw. (Aside: RDU actually has a slightly higher peak for 6”+ storms 2/26-3/3.) ATL peak for its big ones is actually 2/10-16.
Cad Wedge NC
Member
06Z run of the GFS is a swing and a miss. Way different...... Even has a Lakes Low showing up.
I wouldn’t call this bare but it surely isn’t active
ATLwxfan
Member
06z GFS says those clown cold GEFS maps are trash. N to AN for good chunks and a nice spring wedge at the end.
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Why would you trust a single OP run over the ensembles at this lead time other than bittercasting?
ATLwxfan
Member
Not saying I trust it. Just what it shows. Who’s to say it’s not leading the way, though? We did see some warming trends on the ensembles prior to last night.
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Cary_Snow95
Member
A balmy 62.8 in Cary this morning with a heavy downpour moving through
smast16
Member
It's not a single OP run. Showing this for a few runs yesterday too. Op isn't agreeing with Ens. Euro Op was the same for 00z yesterday too. OP was warm, while ens were cold.
SnowNiner
Member
Yeah, from the GEFS, that still looks like our best time period for a shot at storm. Other times are cool, but really not that impressive IMO. I think the +AO/Low north of AK may be stifling our cold air transport a bit and removing the cross polar flow we had last month.
Looks like a late bloomer phase at this time period is modeled from the precip output on the free maps. All we have to do is wait for the NW trend and hope the phase happens earlier. That's worked out well lately right? lol. The trough looks so far east, I'm not sure that's realistic.
Cliff diving time 
tennessee storm
Member
that pattern better produce me a big snow storm for the upper south midsouth regions, lol. if not then i am ready for spring and my tornado chasing and tracking.
I thought this tweet was really great regarding the event yesterday and today as far as the mixing line. NAM gets dissed on a lot, and rightfully so at long range, but sometimes it does a great job with sniffing out a stronger warm nose under 24-48 hours.
LickWx
Member
Ehh, next 10 days look seasonable to me . Seems like it’s dry , with average , maybe a bit mild days and cold nights. Looks like a big diurnal range type pattern . 55/28 type stuff . Obviously we aren’t shut out of the potential for cold , but as of now looks mostly in the middle to me . Which is not bad if you want it to snow , only thing you don’t want if you want snow is torch which we aren’t seeing.