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Pattern Failbruary Thread

HSVweather said:
Yes, flooding is a concern

Canadian has ice for your area too
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haven't checked what the weather models look like but I will tonight or tomorrow. Very busy weekend. With wedding and traveling to Athens georgia and back to Birmingham.
 
Zander98al said:
haven't checked what the weather models look like but I will tonight or tomorrow. Very busy weekend. With wedding and traveling to Athens georgia and back to Birmingham.
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Quick glance looks like Arkansas Missouri and eastern Oklahoma have the best chance for bad weather.
 
Some interesting GEFS members this cycle for late February .. nothing to hang the hat on but a legit cold snap looks likely for a week or so and that will probably be our last chance to try and go for anything wintry
 
23.7 deg this morning. It’s been a while since I remember a season with so many 25 or below temps. Impressive considering I was having low 60s and upper 50s for lows many nights in December.
791FD188-CEC0-431A-8327-EE9066187B2D.jpeg
 
Lots of moisture of the Euro0A8EB266-5575-4963-9A32-192CED722225.png
 
Northeast Arkansas and Missouri boot heel around 2” ice this week if you believe the Canadian

1645302109473.png
 
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Another beautiful comfortably cool weekend here with plentiful sunshine, a nice breeze, and low dewpoints. It feels so good! Had an enjoyable walk last evening and am looking forward to an even better one later this evening with dewpoints in the 30s and temperatures a little later dropping into the high to middle 40s. Forecast low tonight is near 38, 6 BN. May sit out in the sun tomorrow or Monday..
 
- RDU is forecasted to get down into the low 20s, which would challenge the coldest of the MTD
- Hogtown: @pcbjr is likely going to get down to ~39, ~8 BN, with room to go down even more if the radiator works well enough. Dewpoint is a mere 29. Beautiful!
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
All models got impressively more cold with our cold period love it .. also looking like the wedges save us from getting to 80 at least here in Raleigh. Good overnight runs
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Yes, especially next Sunday night into Tuesday. Now if we can just get a good system soaked with moisture to come along with it.


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NickyBGuarantee said:
Euro just threw us a frigid bomb Jesus
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1. This is likely the Euro overdoing it, especially with its 1053 high that far south, as the GFS is way less cold. But with it still being over a week out and with this -EPO, anything is possible. That would be close to the coldest of the entire winter in some spots of the E US, especially near Richmond-DC-Philly. And keep in mind that Arctic normals don't even bottom out til ~2/25.

2. Had the Euro gone out to the next morning, I'm confident it would have easily shown a freeze down at least to @pcbjr.

3. Regarding the potential for wintry precip in especially NC, keep in mind that wintry precip climo is at peak 2/26-3/3. So, it is usually wise to not call it a winter there wintery precipwise til after the first few days of March. and even then proceed with caution.

4. The 0Z EPS is in strong support of the colder Euro as well as SE wintry precip potential:

ecmen_00_sf_us_hr-0072_0234.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
That’s climo bros View attachment 113988
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Cold rain ?? About to be a win win situation for us down here either a final winter event or a nice cold rain and continued below average temperatures after for a solid week. A great final attack from winter hope there’s more but like you say climo is worse and worse and soon lick will come in with the facts about sun angle and soil TEMPS
 
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