Pattern Failbruary Thread

[NCSNOW]

First of many late winter & spring time wedges. We max on these Feb,March, April, May the most it seems. Helps keep severe in check a lot of times around here fortunately

 

[smast16]

Western ridge this past jan and being modeled again is on roids, ensembles look great View attachment 112538View attachment 112541View attachment 112540

All i'm saying here, is that it's Ens vs Ops right now. BOTH GFS and Euro Operational models do not agree with their Ens. It gives me pause.

Euro @ 240


06z GFS @ 240

 

[GaWx]

We were bn for precip in jan for CLT yet it wax the snowiest jan in a while,

Though perhaps somewhat counterintuitive, I’ve found very little to no correlation between monthly total precipitation and monthly wintry precipitation in my ATL analyses. A good number of dry yet wintry months like you’re pointing out that are interspersed in the ATL records with wet ones is the reason. However, there is a good correlation between colder monthly temperature and monthly wintry precipitation, which of course is intuitive.

 

[Arcc]

All i'm saying here, is that it's Ens vs Ops right now. BOTH GFS and Euro Operational models do not agree with their Ens. It gives me pause.

Euro @ 240
View attachment 112555

06z GFS @ 240
View attachment 112556

Look about dead on to me. Honestly really good agreement.

 

[GaWx]

12Z GFS says look out weekend after the upcoming one:



Close call for the SE coast but highly likely this is overdone there even though mid Feb is a peak time for that kind of thing:

 

[jackendrickwx]

Mid/low 40s in the wedge to the west, breaking 60 in Raleigh soon

 

[GaWx]

Spring is around the corner in the SE per the 12Z GFS!



Actually, ensemble means have been suggesting one of the coldest airmasses of the season to date plunging into the SE near midmonth.

 

[GaWx]

12Z GFS 2M temp map for same time shows freeze down to Hogtown and teens or lower much of northern SE!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Aleutian low trending deeper and stronger and further east ? Good luck getting warm ?

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Aleutian low trending deeper and stronger and further east ? Good luck getting warm ?View attachment 112592View attachment 112593

Just really unfortunate that’s it’s being wasted with no precipitation. Maybe something will pop up but it looks cold and dry

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Just really unfortunate that’s it’s being wasted with no precipitation. Maybe something will pop up but it looks cold and dry

Gotta get cold to snow

 

[GaWx]

Just really unfortunate that’s it’s being wasted with no precipitation. Maybe something will pop up but it looks cold and dry

The only wasted dry cold is dry cold for which one doesn’t go outside to enjoy. ?

Speaking of cold, here’s a fantasy map near the end of the 12Z GFS with a 1060+ mb high and -40s in NW Canada!

 

[Tarheel1]

Aleutian low trending deeper and stronger and further east ? Good luck getting warm ?View attachment 112592View attachment 112593

Looking like a Rex block! Locking in the cold. Great for SE winter storms! I’d get excited if I live in GA, SC, NC

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Gotta get cold to snow

That’s true. We shall see. I hope a stork nails the entire southeast. Outside of the Carolinas it’s been a bad winter for snow

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

That’s true. We shall see. I hope a stork nails the entire southeast. Outside of the Carolinas it’s been a bad winter for snow

Tennessee has had a good bit of snow this winter.

 

[GaWx]

Spring is almost here says 12Z GEFS!

 

[LickWx]

64 RDU 72 Greenville . Wedged in at 51 in Greensboro and Charlotte .

 

[jackendrickwx]

Howdy SSE flow

 

[SD]

72 here it's hot

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

41 here. Thankful to have cracked 40 today.