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Pattern Failbruary Thread

NickyBGuarantee said:
As we’re used to this year the pattern changes are usually delayed 1-2 weeks I could see this change occurring in the March 4-7 time range vs Feb 28-March 2 time frame
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I’m still looking for a decent shot at near record or record highs here (just like has occurred in recent Febs) and nearby toward the middle of next week with a solid SER before any cooling precip reaches the area.

Regarding the potential of cold finally penetrating the SER pattern and getting into the SE near the end of Feb, models seem undecided on this, including the timing. We appear to have -EPO driven cold ready to hit much of the US. But sometimes the SER blocks the bulk of -EPO driven cold, especially during La Niña and moreso late in the winter. The SER seems to want to resist at least somewhat. Will the cold be mainly low level and be relegated to a Carolina/NE GA wedge? Or will the H5 trough axis actually fight off the SER and give the SE a more general cold period via a +PNA? Opinions?

At 12Z, the EPS is a good bit colder than the GEFS as of March 1st:

EPS:
8266749B-C313-49DF-81A1-8B715BE75A8A.pngE1AC984B-3AA9-4452-BFF3-E136BC6B1A0E.png


GEFS:
DA2EFA34-C0E2-45B2-A22E-A0307FF621BD.png
EDF5FB88-04ED-4409-B87C-D0D3CEA1EF4E.png
 
pcbjr said:
@GaWx Here ya go Larry ...

CPC is really hinting at it ... much like your 288 GFS and ECM ...



View attachment 113833
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Indeed! Thanks, Phil.

Before we get to next week’s warmth, we have quite a warm day today in many areas. I just noticed that Hogtown was a whopping 84 at 3PM, not far from the record high of 86 set in 2019!

Before next week’s “heat”, we have a pleasantly low humidity weekend as a nice treat.
 
Winters last gasp?

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_64.png
 
First week of march has a signal on ensembles, feel like this is the first true signal on ensembles since the early January event. Still long range but has rare support


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Lot of wild fires out there tonight. Pigeon Forge, TN. Winds will increase more for NC after midnight
 
If we’re going to see any chance at another winter weather event here in the SE it would probably be during this period of time in late February and early March .. still honestly wouldn’t bank on it as we would have to thread some needles and jump some hoops for something like that to line up.. certainly can bank on another period of colder than average temperatures regardless so it’ll still feel like winter at least1645152004540.png
 
GaWx said:
I’m still looking for a decent shot at near record or record highs here (just like has occurred in recent Febs) and nearby toward the middle of next week with a solid SER before any cooling precip reaches the area.

Regarding the potential of cold finally penetrating the SER pattern and getting into the SE near the end of Feb, models seem undecided on this, including the timing. We appear to have -EPO driven cold ready to hit much of the US. But sometimes the SER blocks the bulk of -EPO driven cold, especially during La Niña and moreso late in the winter. The SER seems to want to resist at least somewhat. Will the cold be mainly low level and be relegated to a Carolina/NE GA wedge? Or will the H5 trough axis actually fight off the SER and give the SE a more general cold period via a +PNA? Opinions?

At 12Z, the EPS is a good bit colder than the GEFS as of March 1st:

EPS:
View attachment 113822View attachment 113823


GEFS:
View attachment 113824
View attachment 113825
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Heh...would be fitting to end meteorological winter record warm in Deep South just like December was. Bookends basically.
 
Clemson, SC gusted to 64.4mph with the line last night. Looks like generally 35-45mph for NC piedmont areas. Current sfcobs with high 60s on the coast and 30s west of ATLbigsfc (1).gif
 
smast16 said:
I ran this morning at 5:45 just to beat the front. I'm dreading it.
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The dry front tomorrow afternoon is going to be the real beast. Dews in the low 10s Sunday morning, if we calm the winds it'll be another 18-22. Thing is without persistent strong blocking we are starting to reach that point in the year where the cold shots get a little shorter and are more easily moderated
 
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Roads wet but going into the 20s soon. 31 currently Boone and dropping
 
I want it cold probably about as much as anyone here. But in all honesty, I wasn’t impressed with the 12Z GFS. Also, the 12Z GEFS has only a shortlived mainly low level wedge chill very late Feb til 3/1. And remember I’m way down in the deep SE. And we’re in La Niña with its tendency to give love to a stubborn SER. Things just don’t look as good as they did a couple of days ago on the GFS/GEFS. Maybe I should just chill though and hope we chill longer, more strongly, and in a more widespread manner?
 
25.2, I wasn't paying attention yesterday and did not cut heat on last night, haha 59 in the house. If winds go dead calm tonight another sub 20 not out of the question
 
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