Been a pretty classic stretch of winter. No complaints. It’s time to ?
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Pattern Failbruary Thread
- Thread starter SD
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lexxnchloe
Member
Maybe winter will give it another try. The frozen seems to be headed south at 384.
I looked up the RDU Febs with the highest of the month being 80+. I found 12 Febs in that category. I was curious to see how were the subsequent March's:
- the coldest in March averaged 23, which is right at the longterm average
- the mean snowfall was 0.7", somewhat below the longterm March average of 1.1". 1/4 of them had no snow and 1/4 had above average with 3.3" the heaviest (1932).
- the March average for the 12 came out to near normal (50.4 vs 50.7 longterm average).
- 3 of the 12 were AN, 5 were NN, 2 were BN, and 2 were MBN. The 4 that were BN or MBN averaged 1.5" of snow vs 1.1" longterm average. The 3 warmest had either no snow or a trace.
- the coldest in March averaged 23, which is right at the longterm average
- the mean snowfall was 0.7", somewhat below the longterm March average of 1.1". 1/4 of them had no snow and 1/4 had above average with 3.3" the heaviest (1932).
- the March average for the 12 came out to near normal (50.4 vs 50.7 longterm average).
- 3 of the 12 were AN, 5 were NN, 2 were BN, and 2 were MBN. The 4 that were BN or MBN averaged 1.5" of snow vs 1.1" longterm average. The 3 warmest had either no snow or a trace.
Low in the gulfMaybe winter will give it another try. The frozen seems to be headed south at 384.
Stretch it, pull it, tug it, do whatever the hell you want to it! 
#wildcardfactor
#wildcardfactor
End of the GEFS ran much colder and more fun .. it’s fantasy land but an interesting development that may be due to that PV stretch it was showing on the 00z run. Can only be monitored right now as the warmth is INBOUND mostly low humidity though so it should be a well deserved break from the cold January we had
The 0Z EPS is also colder late in the run. So whereas the warmup for next week is still there, what's different is that its end can already be seen now in the 0Z runs before March starts. It will be interesting to see what they have for their new MJO forecasts.
On another subject, my January 17th forecast for -3 or colder Feb 1-14 at both RDU and ATL failed badly:
Actual RDU: ~+1.5
Actual ATL: ~+1.2
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22 this morning
23 here this morning. Have to wonder each time we get this low, will it get this cold again this winter.
Idk some of the modeled looks for early March could do it
19.6degF here this am. Honestly, I didn't expect it to get this cold. Very frosty, too.
18.1 over here! ?
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Might be a little slick in places tomorrow morning.
smast16
Member
18 a few miles from ya. Wasn't expecting it to be colder than last night.
dsaur
Member
Larry, when is climo's last gasp in late Feb? We missed out on Valentine's day, but I recall there is another period after the 20th, and there are at least two places where cold and the gulf dance semi close together in the long range. Thanks.
Adios quick and painless ! 
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Where did my dandelions go?
colder looks during MC MJO pass ? Skeptical 
Looks more like the FMA or MAM composites than JFM but I have my skepticism about it
I’ll take your cold 12Z GEFS and raise you an even colder 12Z EPS:
March in like a lion?
PNA going back toward positive?
A good number of CFS runs have been hinting at cold/+PNA returning in early to mid March. Check out the 12Z run.
The warmth of mid to late next week is very old news now. What isn’t old news is that this warmth is looking more and more shortlived.
With this in mind, keep in mind that RDU major snow frequency peak doesn’t even start to drop until March 4th. ATL has had a good number of winter storms through the first few days of March.
Keep in mind that early March climo temperatures are similar to the start of December and being cold then is not at all unusual. Average coldest at RDU in March even when Feb peaked at 80+ was still 23, which is right at the overall average coldest for March.
One more thing to keep in mind: the Arctic’s coldest normal for a day isn’t for another 10 days.
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iGRXY
Member
MJO charts posted above are low amp and COD which leads to less forcing from the MJO on the overall pattern. Cooler weather definitely seems plausible if that were to verify.
At RDU, the month with heaviest snowfall occurred 14 times in March since 1887:
1890, 1927, 1932, 1934, 1940, 1941, 1942, 1947, 1960, 1969, 1971, 1974, 1980, and 1983.
So ,longest between them: 37 years. It has been 39 years. 2.8" would do it assuming nothing more this month.
# times with 7"+:
Nov 0
Dec 8
Jan 14
Feb 17
Mar 7
Apr 1
March dates with 6.5"+ storms (8 storms)
1, 1-2, 2, 2-3, 9, 10, 24, 24
There are additional dates with major icestorms which I didn't list because those are very hard to compile though I have done so for ATL.
1890, 1927, 1932, 1934, 1940, 1941, 1942, 1947, 1960, 1969, 1971, 1974, 1980, and 1983.
So ,longest between them: 37 years. It has been 39 years. 2.8" would do it assuming nothing more this month.
# times with 7"+:
Nov 0
Dec 8
Jan 14
Feb 17
Mar 7
Apr 1
March dates with 6.5"+ storms (8 storms)
1, 1-2, 2, 2-3, 9, 10, 24, 24
There are additional dates with major icestorms which I didn't list because those are very hard to compile though I have done so for ATL.
Freeze all of the way down to Hogtown @pcbjr this morning though that's nothing too unusual for mid Feb.
As a matter of fact. Hogtown has had a March freeze a whopping 51 times since 1901!
The CFS though mainly a for entertainment model, keeps insisting on a return to cold for at some of early to mid month. The latest (12Z) has much of the E US chilly the whole month (no longlasting torch at all) though the SE is only at the bottom end of the cold. So, maybe the torch of next week will be the last for awhile??
As a matter of fact. Hogtown has had a March freeze a whopping 51 times since 1901!
The CFS though mainly a for entertainment model, keeps insisting on a return to cold for at some of early to mid month. The latest (12Z) has much of the E US chilly the whole month (no longlasting torch at all) though the SE is only at the bottom end of the cold. So, maybe the torch of next week will be the last for awhile??
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A spring mirage .. I love a good rug pull! Unfortunately this is still long range and we’re getting increasingly worse climo odds .. but I’m chasing cool/cold air and this is certainly how to get it! 
pcbjr
Member
+PNA ...
Winters not done by a long shot late month early March looks promising for cold and hopefully we can squeeze in one last storm for the board.
22.3 this morning and I'm ready for a break
NCSNOW
Member
Greensboro sitting at -.2 for the month of Feb so far.
06z GFS and GEFS continue the tune of a much colder beginning to March .. what a sight for sore eyes hope it doesn’t smooth out as we get closer but certainly looks like a period to watch for something as we will have much more cold air around to work with
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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March 1960 redux
Although it is long range right now an ensemble mean as stout as this on both major globals usually means somethings up. This is extreme late February to extremely early March which honestly isn’t TERRIBLE climo for some snow to work out (for the upper SE) but yes it is a bit harder. With this look though I could easily see some sort of winter weather working out for the upper SE during this time .. I’ll flag it as interesting and watch as I sunbathe over the next 2 weeks 
D
