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Pattern Failbruary Thread

Got down to 16 degrees but not a flake has flown here with this latest system. So 7 straight weeks of snow didn’t happen but 6 is still impressive. I do know I’ve had around 10 or more nights that have dropped in the teens this winter with a few nights in the single digits. If no more snow falls though this winter is still easily an A+ For me. Multiple events that totaled 2 inches of snow and of course the big boy 8 inch snow on January 6th For a total of 12.9 inches this winter. Hopefully I can squeeze out another 0.1 and get to 13 inches on the season before winter runs out.
 
Another beautiful February day for outdoor activities here today with partial sunshine, temperatures in the 60s, dewpoints falling through the 40s and likely headed for the 30s, and a nice breeze. Hard to beat.
 
Not out of the question to get another storm, icy mix as we flip into March. See some NE Breeze days ahead. GFS had a 1050 HP up in NE on a couple frames. Been a good winter here. Coming to an end as climo is getting ready to accelerate things on top of rolling into an unfavorable pattern. Like GAwx says, it can stay cold as long as it wants. Its 6 and half months till Sept 1st and we start trending at a snails pace toward winter again. The 6 weeks of winter we've been blessed to have is a Bad tradeoff for the 6+ months of heat,humidity,gnats,mosquitoes etc
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
As we prepare for an early spring this year, I still remember talking with my Granpa as a little kid about this storm. Sort of a Superstorm 93 February version. Maybe next year.
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Gonna have to ask Metwannabe how cold it was at his house back then!
That’s the cold outbreak of cold outbreaks! I would love to have experienced it!
 
Rain Cold said:
That is a winter's over look. ☹

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Yep, cold air on the opposite side of the world, where it normally resides! But it was a good month to month and a half of more cold than not in the SE and several minor events! Not bad for a non winter!
 
NCSNOW said:
Not out of the question to get another storm, icy mix as we flip into March. See some NE Breeze days ahead. GFS had a 1050 HP up in NE on a couple frames. Been a good winter here. Coming to an end as climo is getting ready to accelerate things on top of rolling into an unfavorable pattern. Like GAwx says, it can stay cold as long as it wants. Its 6 and half months till Sept 1st and we start trending at a snails pace toward winter again. The 6 weeks of winter we've been blessed to have is a Bad tradeoff for the 6+ months of heat,humidity,gnats,mosquitoes etc
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SE WxAlerts Guy on FB, posted today that he is watching 20-22 and 26-28? said he didn't know if it would be anything of significance ?‍♂️
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
That’s a call I can get behind don’t think we make it here in Raleigh but Charlotte I could see having a better chance .. early March will probably get there for us both though
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Actualllyyyy … Raleigh does better with extreme highs and lows versus Charlotte . Don’t focus on who is more south . Look at the numbers .
 
Magic March will be here soon enough. ?

RDU is still well below climo on snowfall. Another crappy winter, we need Magic March to bail us out.
 
In FL, notorious Panhandle cold spot Crestview plunged to 24! Tallahassee hit 28. It was 35 all the way down to Ocala in the north central peninsula. So, a cold late winter night/morning throughout the SE.

Dewpoints are currently down into the mid 40s all of the way down in Key West.
 
pcbjr said:
Well, for those of y'all who wanted/want AN, looks like your wish will be granted ...


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pcbjr said:
Well, for those of y'all who wanted/want AN, looks like your wish will be granted ...


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Thanks, Phil for the update. In reality, this is old news as model 2M output along with forecasted indices favoring warmth, have been suggesting this for a number of days. So, I continue to expect warmth for most of the last week of Feb and into the 1st week of March. After that I continue to hope that the MJO will rotate around to phases 8/1/2/3 for the subsequent couple of weeks, which would mean a period with a better chance to get back down to NN to BN. Though not all of them, a good number of CFS runs have been suggesting a return to a +PNA dominated period starting by ~3/8. We'll see!
 
GaWx said:
Thanks, Phil for the update. In reality, this is old news as model 2M output along with forecasted indices favoring warmth, have been suggesting this for a number of days. So, I continue to expect warmth for most of the last week of Feb and into the 1st week of March. After that I continue to hope that the MJO will rotate around to phases 8/1/2/3 for the subsequent couple of weeks, which would mean a period with a better chance to get back down to NN to BN. Though not all of them, a good number of CFS runs have been suggesting a return to a +PNA dominated period starting by ~3/8. We'll see!
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EPS keeps forcing confined in the warm phases through March 46887B8A-6FD9-47F6-BCF0-D40D9C2A66D1.png
 
GaWx said:
Thanks, Phil for the update. In reality, this is old news as model 2M output along with forecasted indices favoring warmth, have been suggesting this for a number of days. So, I continue to expect warmth for most of the last week of Feb and into the 1st week of March. After that I continue to hope that the MJO will rotate around to phases 8/1/2/3 for the subsequent couple of weeks, which would mean a period with a better chance to get back down to NN to BN. Though not all of them, a good number of CFS runs have been suggesting a return to a +PNA dominated period starting by ~3/8. We'll see!
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Old news is my forte, I reckon ... :oops:
 
deltadog03 said:
So, I guess it's time to say.....here comes the 70's?
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Easily. Actually, I see FFC even has you in the 70s for this Thu before it cools nicely again for a few days again. Then likely mainly 70s for highs a good bit of mid to late next week+. I'll have a good shot at a day or more in the 80s late Feb. If the dewpoints were to stay below 50-55, I'd enjoy it (good to lie out in backyard). I'd expect 80 gets close to, if not to, Macon.
 
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GaWx said:
Easily. Actually, I see FFC even has you in the 70s for this Thu before it cools nicely again for a few days again. Then likely mainly 70s for highs a good bit of mid to late next week+. I'll have a good shot at a day or more in the 80s late Feb. If the dewpoints were to stay below 50-55, I'd enjoy it (good to lie out in backyard). I'd expect 80 gets close to, if not to, Macon.
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you are probably right....80 doesn't appear to be that hard to hit at times in late FEB
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Weenie roast, county version View attachment 113563View attachment 113564View attachment 113565View attachment 113566
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Thanks, fro. I'd expect to hit 80+ here that day. With dews up into the low 60s, that wouldn't be my cup of tea, but:

1. This is old news/already been expected because the idea of warmth in late Feb. has been advertised for many days on models.

2. This is a type of day I'd be longing for once we get to late May. Also, low 80s here in late Feb is nothing unusual. ~2/3 of the last 30 years' warmest in Feb. have been 80+ and it has hit 84-87 in all of the last 6 Febs. So, in those respects, it isn't that big a deal.

3. Though the next day is almost as warm, this is the warmest afternoon of the entire 18Z GEFS run. So, cooling off from here.
 
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