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Pattern Failbruary Thread

superjames1992 said:
God, we suck in the Triangle. Not even at climo despite a dream pattern all of January while GSO has been cleaning up. ?
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The triad always cleans up, no matter what. Best spot to be in NC other than the mountains to get snow. If I ever move out of the CLT area that would be my first choice. They even get legitimate March snow, lol.
 
Matthew East likes the upcoming pattern. I'm still kinda meh on it. Western ridge is a bit west to my liking, seems the cold would be focused more in the central US. SE ridge just looks like it wants to pop. I'm open minded on it for the next 2 weeks. I think the end of February though we're playing with fire.

 
pcbjr said:
In all due respect, a -NAO is nice but the crust of the pie is the PNA ...
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A -NAO certainly helps. But for the SE overall during most of the winter, the correlation to cold appears to higher for a +PNA than for any other single index. Look at what the SE just experienced. And I’d say the same for big SE Miller A snowstorms (not Miller B). Getting both at the same time, especially with -AO, is hard to beat.
 
GaWx said:
A -NAO certainly helps. But for the SE overall during most of the winter, the correlation to cold appears to higher for a +PNA than for any other single index. Look at what the SE just experienced. And I’d say the same for big SE Miller A snowstorms (not Miller B). Getting both at the same time, especially with -AO, is hard to beat.
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... and the PNA is really trying hard to squeeze into positive territory even on the 14 day ... and that's a wrap ...
 
pcbjr said:
In all due respect, a -NAO is nice but the crust of the pie is the PNA ...
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NAO is not just nice. It's extremely helpful when it comes to SE snowstorms. You can absolutely get cold without a -NAO. You can absolutely get winter storms without a -NAO. But we need to remember that it helps slow the pattern down and keep the storm track suppressed. A PNA is nice, but it doesn't suppress the storm track. The downstream effect is a trough in the east. But the flow still remains pretty fast and you need great timing for big winter storms. You still need great timing with a -NAO, but adding that in (and I'm not saying it's the only piece) gives you a bigger (and maybe much) bigger eye of the needle.
 
Rain Cold said:
NAO is not just nice. It's extremely helpful when it comes to SE snowstorms. You can absolutely get cold without a -NAO. You can absolutely get winter storms without a -NAO. But we need to remember that it helps slow the pattern down and keep the storm track suppressed. A PNA is nice, but it doesn't suppress the storm track. The downstream effect is a trough in the east. But the flow still remains pretty fast and you need great timing for big winter storms. You still need great timing with a -NAO, but adding that in (and I'm not saying it's the only piece) gives you a bigger (and maybe much) bigger eye of the needle.
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Based on my own analysis of over 3” ATL/N GA snowstorms, +PNA has had on its own the highest correlation (back to 1950, when the daily PNA records start) of any single major index to major N GA snow. Your area may be different. The +PNA I think helps more areas further south than NC.
 
Rain Cold said:
NAO is not just nice. It's extremely helpful when it comes to SE snowstorms. You can absolutely get cold without a -NAO. You can absolutely get winter storms without a -NAO. But we need to remember that it helps slow the pattern down and keep the storm track suppressed. A PNA is nice, but it doesn't suppress the storm track. The downstream effect is a trough in the east. But the flow still remains pretty fast and you need great timing for big winter storms. You still need great timing with a -NAO, but adding that in (and I'm not saying it's the only piece) gives you a bigger (and maybe much) bigger eye of the needle.
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I do not downplay a -NAO, a 50/50 low or anything else that slows the pattern down ... please don't get me wrong; but without cold you can get a great pattern of blocking ... of warm/mild PAC air ... it's happened ... cold begets snow (not here so not my horse in the race) ... blocking is a great asset ... when it's blocking cold ...


... EDIT ...

Let's also toss in a -EPO ... but give me a +PNA and I'll ride that horse ...
 
pcbjr said:
I do not downplay a -NAO, a 50/50 low or anything else that slows the pattern down ... please don't get me wrong; but without cold you can get a great pattern of blocking ... of warm/mild PAC air ... it's happened ... cold begets snow (not here so not my horse in the race) ... blocking is a great asset ... when it's blocking cold ...
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Also, the SE is not uniform. Different parts of the SE will be affected differently on average. If one were to look at the correlation of +PNA to cold, it is higher the deeper into the SE you get.
 
GaWx said:
Also, the SE is not uniform. Different parts of the SE will be affected differently on average. If one were to look at the correlation of +PNA to cold, it is higher the deeper into the SE you get.
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Hogtown is pretty dadgum deep ...
 
superjames1992 said:
God, we suck in the Triangle. Not even at climo despite a dream pattern all of January while GSO has been cleaning up. ?
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Weird I’m boolin by NC state with at least 4 inches on the season add sleet and we’re closer to 5. Been a great winter here. 10 fold better than the past 3. We just didn’t hit the right juicy spots in the past few storms. That’s not out of the norm. Plus we still have February and March to go. I think we at least sneak out 1 more snow event in that time (hopefully more) but usually we’re still praying for our first storm of the season by this time. No complaints here
 
GaWx said:
Based on my own analysis of over 3” ATL/N GA snowstorms, +PNA has had on its own the highest correlation (back to 1950, when the daily PNA records start) of any single major index to major N GA snow. Your area may be different. The +PNA I think helps more areas further south than NC.
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I'm not disputing your analysis. What I'm saying is that we could use some blocking. I'm not saying that statistically the PNA isn't important for Atlanta snowstorms. I'm not saying that I wish the PNA would go negative and we get some blocking so we can get a snowstorm. I'm saying that a -NAO would be helpful in this pattern we've been having. I'm saying that because it would. It would have helped Atlanta. It would still help Atlanta. The PNA has been positive and will likely be positive for a while longer. I don't see much of a chance for Atlanta to get 3" of snow anytime soon. I wonder what the NAO distribution of 3"+ snowfalls for Atlanta during +PNA periods would be.

I get why people like analogs, and I understand statistical correlations...and they can be very valuable. But weather forecasting can't be reduced to statistics. Patterns and variables matter. In this case, a -NAO would be helpful. It would have been helpful over the past couple of weeks too. It's not always helpful, like when cold air is nowhere nearby. But currently, it would be helpful. That's all I'm saying.
 
Rain Cold said:
I'm not disputing your analysis. What I'm saying is that we could use some blocking. I'm not saying that statistically the PNA isn't important for Atlanta snowstorms. I'm not saying that I wish the PNA would go negative and we get some blocking so we can get a snowstorm. I'm saying that a -NAO would be helpful in this pattern we've been having. I'm saying that because it would. It would have helped Atlanta. It would still help Atlanta. The PNA has been positive and will likely be positive for a while longer. I don't see much of a chance for Atlanta to get 3" of snow anytime soon. I wonder what the NAO distribution of 3"+ snowfalls for Atlanta during +PNA periods would be.

I get why people like analogs, and I understand statistical correlations...and they can be very valuable. But weather forecasting can't be reduced to statistics. Patterns and variables matter. In this case, a -NAO would be helpful. It would have been helpful over the past couple of weeks too. It's not always helpful, like when cold air is nowhere nearby. But currently, it would be helpful. That's all I'm saying.
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So let's agree: a +PNA, a -NAO, a -EPO, MJO Ph 8 inside the COD for 5 weeks without a budge and we're all good ...

Glad we have this all settled ...

RC ... you know I think models are cartoons outside of 5 days, but if we're gonna look at stuff, the place to start is to get the pieces of the jig-saw puzzle lined up by colors ... and no cold, no snow ... no matter how much blocking ... again, I get nothing out of it but I root for y'all incessantly and I'd rather see you get 6 hours of snow than 26 hours of blocked cool rain ... though if you got 26 hours of snow ... Man would that be something ...

I'm still putting my money on a +PNA on the deal and hoping when I draw the 2 discarded cards, one of them is a - NAO ...
 
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pcbjr said:
So let's agree: a +PNA. a -NAO, a -EPO, MJO Ph 8 inside the COD for 5 weeks without a budge and we're all good ...

Glad we have this all settled ...

RC ... you know I think models are cartoons outside of 5 days, but if we're gonna look at stuff, the place to start is to get the pieces of the jig-saw puzzle lined up by colors ... and no cold, no snow ... no matter how much blocking ... again, I get nothing out of it but I root for y'all incessantly and I'd rather see you get 6 hours of snow than 26 hours of blocked cool rain ... though if you got 26 hours of snow ... Man would that be something ...

I'm still putting my money on a +PNA on the deal and hoping when I draw the 2 discarded cards, one of them is a - NAO ...
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Clown huh ... pshwwww
 
pcbjr said:
So let's agree: a +PNA, a -NAO, a -EPO, MJO Ph 8 inside the COD for 5 weeks without a budge and we're all good ...

Glad we have this all settled ...

RC ... you know I think models are cartoons outside of 5 days, but if we're gonna look at stuff, the place to start is to get the pieces of the jig-saw puzzle lined up by colors ... and no cold, no snow ... no matter how much blocking ... again, I get nothing out of it but I root for y'all incessantly and I'd rather see you get 6 hours of snow than 26 hours of blocked cool rain ... though if you got 26 hours of snow ... Man would that be something ...

I'm still putting my money on a +PNA on the deal and hoping when I draw the 2 discarded cards, one of them is a - NAO ...
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I like to see cold over on our side of the world. Then we negotiate indexes. I am never going to turn down a PNA but I'm still looking for more.
 
Things that will work .. this! .. also +PNA is the real deal and is the only reason we were able to have a streak of good storm potential like we just had .. I will root for that more than anything else at this point. -NAO is great and all but it didn’t help with any storm potential of our past 3 so we don’t need it really A6AA1DE1-E8BD-4382-9234-FCF4783BE845.pngD49BFB5F-0127-43EA-BD15-C2798F5E6252.png
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Things that will work .. this! .. also +PNA is the real deal and is the only reason we were able to have a streak of good storm potential like we just had .. I will root for that more than anything else at this point. -NAO is great and all but it didn’t help with any storm potential of our past 3 so we don’t need it really View attachment 112060View attachment 112059
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I'm not a huge fan but it's not terrible
 
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