PNA wins! By a small margin so mainly noise but it makes the case
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Pattern Failbruary Thread
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Imo there’s a lot more then numbers there’s looks that resemble -NAOs/+PNAs that don’t exactly show up on the numbers but would show up at H5
Flotown
Member
Let's see pics!!
It isn’t a big margin, but I think it is a bit more than mainly noise, especially when you look at the breakdowns I provided. Also, consider this. I call
strong -PNA/+NAO to be -1 or lower/+1 or greater. Based on this, there were none with a strong -PNA while there were three with a strong +NAO.
Regardless as has been stated by several including myself, the official calculation of NAO may mean you can have a Greenland block without a -NAO. So, in those cases, it could be a matter of semantics.
I think your point is a valid point to consider. For some of these storms, it may be officially not -NAO but there still be a Greenland Block. I’ve also stated that. But I still would rather have a +PNA than a -NAO if I can only have one. I mean only 1/7 of the storms were during a -PNA and none were during a strong -PNA!
Edit: In addition, +PNA has the highest correlation of any one index to SE cold, especially deep SE, and a cold pattern in general. I’ve come to really hate -PNAs after this awful December we had to endure, day after day after day ad nauseum seeing butt ugly H5! Nasty stuff that wouldn’t end. I absolutely detest west coast troughs. ? Even DT was talking in his latest video about how bad -PNAs are.
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NCSNOW
Member
Youll be in reach after today and tommorows negatives get calculated in, here atleast. Bet your even, maybe - turf Tuesday morning GSO. We had 2 days AN , skewing you right now.
Reminder that the GFS is a ---- model 
Stephenb888
Member
Is the GFS trying to cook something up for Valentine’s Day?….
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
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That is close to being a big deal for a lot of people
rburrel2
Member
Looks good to me... any time we get a legit ridge to connect like that from greenland back to alaska it's typically great stuff for us.
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Me looking at the euro ???
HSVweather
Member
Um… euro was about to rex the pacific 
Winter refuses to give up without a fight!
So this one would be another screw me in NE GA one? I'm trying not to say bad words...
iGRXY
Member
Woke up and it’s already 32/26 with light freezing rain and now I see the euro is throwing us a bone for Valentine’s Day as well. Yippee is an understatement.
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Y’all are falling asleep on the job.Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Looks to be coming more in line with the euro. Good to see.
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Yeah, significant step toward the euro there
^^The way the models have behaved, day 6 is still way way out in fantasy land. Needs to get in to day 3 or 4 before I bite.
NCSNOW
Member
Same. Been waiting for this to show up, think everyone has seen the window wide open for opportunity around V Day. Hopefully we can reel in one more big one before Spring shows up. I made the mistake of watching Golf on TV yesterday, Started running a golf fever, but took some 0z euro and the fever has gone away!
Stephenb888
Member
I like it but why does it seem to be lacking cold temps?
Hopefully we can get it to tilt negative before it goes off the Eastern US.
ATLwxfan
Member
Baby steps but steps nonetheless. A couple more ticks west and maybe we are in business?
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L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Not with the gfs. Surface temp
issues
rburrel2
Member
Gfs is the only model hanging back that diving energy in the southwest at around 120hrs. Feel like if that can merge with the southern stream shortwave and eject our way we could get a big deal. Icon shows them merging and seems to have a colder solution. A lot depends on that northern stream wave advancing far enough east to lay some cold air down out ahead of this storm too. We need that feature to trend faster.
EPS not as impressive but a few with that coastal look, 06z GFS looking little better maybe we get an idea of what might happen later Saturday night Lol
I like the Valentine's day potential. GFS and CMC are showing it hopefully it doesn't shear out and comes NW a little wouldn't take much for a significant board wide storm.
Wheretorch?
tonysc
Member
From GSP
Uncertainty rushes back in late in the weekend with
the next system, which comes at us in the guise of a clipper-type
short wave Saturday night and Sunday. Both operational models have
this wave digging the upper trof as it crosses the Appalachians,
forcing lee cyclogenesis as cold air aloft arrives with the passage
of the trof. Hmmm...very interesting. The result is a shot of
wintry precip, mostly snow, that according to the models would
affect much of the region on Sunday. Now...the GFS solution has
only lukewarm support from its ensemble thus far...so one should
not get carried away. The model blend takes in enough sources that
do not feature such a wintry outcome, so for the time being our
forecast will be quite conservative and show only a small chance
of elevation-dependent rain/snow over the mtns as the cold front
crosses the region, and temps dropping back to a category below
normal for Sunday/Sunday night. But, this gives us something to
watch and talk about for the next few days.
And from Southeast WX
We will begin talking more about the major winter storm potential during the February 14-18 time frame in our next update around mid-next week. Be safe and remember to slow down on any icy roads or better yet, stay home if you can.
Uncertainty rushes back in late in the weekend with
the next system, which comes at us in the guise of a clipper-type
short wave Saturday night and Sunday. Both operational models have
this wave digging the upper trof as it crosses the Appalachians,
forcing lee cyclogenesis as cold air aloft arrives with the passage
of the trof. Hmmm...very interesting. The result is a shot of
wintry precip, mostly snow, that according to the models would
affect much of the region on Sunday. Now...the GFS solution has
only lukewarm support from its ensemble thus far...so one should
not get carried away. The model blend takes in enough sources that
do not feature such a wintry outcome, so for the time being our
forecast will be quite conservative and show only a small chance
of elevation-dependent rain/snow over the mtns as the cold front
crosses the region, and temps dropping back to a category below
normal for Sunday/Sunday night. But, this gives us something to
watch and talk about for the next few days.
And from Southeast WX
We will begin talking more about the major winter storm potential during the February 14-18 time frame in our next update around mid-next week. Be safe and remember to slow down on any icy roads or better yet, stay home if you can.
EPS 
lexxnchloe
Member
At least it isnt 500 miles offshore this time. Reason for optimism.
NCSNOW
Member
Greensboro entered the day only 0.3 AN for February. Will be solidly below at midnight tonight, when todays negative double digit gets calculated in.
Can someone post a 500mb graphic of the PV evolution in North America over the last 45 days? Not sure where to find that info.
Can’t believe Guilford County had in person learning today.
I'm not sure where they get their weather consulting from but it's not very good. A few weeks ago they cancelled all afterschool activities even through the precip didn't even arrive until after 9pm. I can't figure them out but I'm going to offer my services, for a fee, of course.
smast16
Member
They also cancelled that day before for the entire day for 'Black Ice', and it was 50 and sunny by noon. A late opening of 9am would have sufficed just fine.
rburrel2
Member
just slight differences on the placement of that vort dropping down between the GFS and Icon. 
Imo, we need it to drop down somewhere in between these two outcomes to allow that baja energy to phase in and give time for the northern stream wave to seperate push east allowing cold air to filter in. GFS drops it too far southwest and leaves in there; icon drops it too far east and doesn't fully pick up the baja energy or amplify enough to provide a storm. 
Imo, we need it to drop down somewhere in between these two outcomes to allow that baja energy to phase in and give time for the northern stream wave to seperate push east allowing cold air to filter in. GFS drops it too far southwest and leaves in there; icon drops it too far east and doesn't fully pick up the baja energy or amplify enough to provide a storm.