• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Failbruary Thread

NWMSGuy said:
If most of that is freezing rain it would certainly be lights out.
Click to expand...
Looking at the 925 temps, it may be sleet as they are below freezing. Could also he super cooled rain that freezes instantly on surface contact. Probably a better chance at sleet in NW Miss and SW Tennessee since 925 is around 2200 feet above the surface there so a lot of distance for it to fall in subfreezing temps. In my back yard 925 is closer to the surface by about 1400 feet so less time for it to refreeze here even though my 925 is around 29-30f.
 
This is my local NWS a few days ago they said advisory level event ???

Wednesday night into early Thursday is when our area looks to feel
the brunt of the impending winter storm. The latest data is
stronger and slower with the upper system, and the result will be
significantly higher precipitation amounts Wednesday evening into
early Thursday. Much of this will fall as snow across at least the
northern half of the forecast area, with significant ice
accumulations most likely across parts of southeast Oklahoma into
west central Arkansas. The precipitation should be tapering off
and ending by Thursday afternoon.

It is still too early to focus on specific snow and ice amounts in
specific locations, but the bottom line is that the potential for
a major winter weather event is increasing across the entire
forecast area.
 
Shaggy said:
People need to remember how horribly the ZR accumulation maps are. No storm around here has even come close to putting up the accumulation amounts shown in the models when it comes to ZR. They've been worse than the old Dgex.
Click to expand...
Good point. Almost every map that shows extreme anything doesn't verify. ZR, snow, 1050+ HP, wind gusts, strong low pressures, and even the map I posted above won't end up verifying. I don't know what it is about models that makes them overmodel everything, but 99% of the time you can count on that to be the case.
 
Shaggy said:
People need to remember how horribly the ZR accumulation maps are. No storm around here has even come close to putting up the accumulation amounts shown in the models when it comes to ZR. They've been worse than the old Dgex.
Click to expand...
Y’all wanted winter lol. It’s here now . I seen a lot times those fz rain be under done also. We bracing for a lot ice here west Tennessee also
 
Models have also underdone precip alot this year, most systems have had more precipitation than advertised. Just saying, I never blow off ice threats since 1994. A quarter inch of ice can cause problems a half inch is serious business and anything over that can be major problems.
 
If shears out but honestly, the players are there for a CAD setup. at only day 4-5, there’s quick moving trough moving east of the GLs to SE can, high pressure following right behind with descent behind the quick but cold trough, all this setups up at day 4-5 for something a day or 2 later ? B0743586-6DA7-4230-B24F-5D5F8F75C95E.jpeg9A8BE1DB-921C-4674-A7AA-2C8841689ACD.jpeg
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top