Pattern Failbruary Thread

[BullCityWx]

Sigh. Smells like a warm nose.

What do you expect with Nina climatology?

 

[Brent]

Just wow this may be a better signal for snow than last February had at this rate ?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Just wow this may be a better signal for snow than last February had at this rate ?

View attachment 111680

One of the only Differences is, Dallas is gonna likely miss out on snow and get IP/ZR

 

[Brent]

One of the only Differences is, Dallas is gonna likely miss out on snow and get IP/ZR

Yeah pretty much

Last February the cold was always more the story even there. It did snow more significantly up here I believe. Dallas only had 4 inches which wasn't that impressive

If that freezing rain on the GFS verifies it's gonna have way more impact down there

 

[JLL1973]

Memphis cautiously looking over the forecast going into next week. Here's a piece from their afternoon AFD:

Rain chances will increase Tuesday Night and into Wednesday as
the cold front eventually sinks into the Mid-South. PW`s will be
150 to 250 percent above normal for this time of year. Thus, the
threat for heavy rain will be possible with this system. In
addition, winter weather will be a concern. Arctic air will be
plunging in behind the front. The big question will be where
exactly will be the front located. There remains differences
amongst the models on where exactly the front will be as the front
is expected to slow its progression and possibly stall Wednesday
Night into Thursday as a SFC low develops over Texas and tracks
northeastward along the front. In addition, there are differences
in regards to timing of an upper trough moving into the region.
There is a scenario where the arctic air filters in but a shallow
warm layer remains just above the surface to produce freezing
rain. If the arctic air plunges in quicker, precipitation may turn
to all snow. Do expect at least a short period of snow on the
back edge of the precipitation Thursday afternoon into the evening
as the precipitation tapers off. However, too much uncertainty
during this time period to pinpoint what exactly will happen.
Mentioned freezing rain and snow in forecast for Wednesday Night
into Thursday. Stay tuned to the latest forecasts.

Looks like your going to be right on the dividing line. You could get either heavy rain or freezing rain. Looks like all rain for me

 

[Myfrotho704_]

27/-1

 

[NoSnowATL]

27/-1

 

[iGRXY]

27/-4

 

[BullCityWx]

Pretty sure the euro control run might’ve had significant ice for 40N

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Pretty sure the euro control run might’ve had significant ice for 40N

 

[Tarheelwx]

View attachment 111688View attachment 111689

Nothing wrong with that.
TW

 

[Chandler]

Some snow in SC at the end of the icon run

 

[Brent]

Near a foot again on the GFS

Meanwhile DFW Austin ugly freezing rain. This would cause another power crisis probably

 

[BufordWX]

@Brent is gonna like the 00z GFS.

 

[Brent]

@Brent is gonna like the 00z GFS.View attachment 111695

Seems too good to be true ? still 3 days to go scares me ?

 

[Arcc]

Gonna be the year of stuck SW short waves. If the system would kick right after the first wave it would be a slam dunk for someone in the south.

 

[Brent]

Seems too good to be true ? still 3 days to go scares me ?

I mean I'm pretty sure there will be a storm but how significant is what my question is. Of course I would never fully believe the high end projections but the ceiling is definitely up there if everything lines up

 

[Brent]

A foot mean on the GEFS in Missouri!

 

[Flotown]

A foot mean on the GEFS in Missouri!View attachment 111697

May have to go visit my maw in law right slap in the middle of that foot mean...

 

[Tarheel1]

A foot mean on the GEFS in Missouri!View attachment 111697

We toss