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Pattern Failbruary Thread

NickyBGuarantee said:
Despite Brent getting on the goods here soon.. I really don’t see a big winter weather pattern .. we definitely have some cold air flying around and the SER is trying to flex at the same time .. just a lot more threading the needle type of scenarios we might have to lean on at least for this first half of February
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So basically back to normal for the southeast ?
Definitely been one of the coldest stretches here in a few years. After polar opposite’s from December to January maybe February will give us a mix of those two months.
 
Looks like phase 3 MJO forcing is alright, and the reason why we have lost the longer duration warmer signal to a colder signal, but convection entering the maritime continent becomes problematic and encourages a southeast ridge, this time being legitimately boosted by the phase 4-5 MJO, but that looks like towards the middle/later part of feb, until then, we’re probably gonna have a decent pattern (phase 3 is friendly to the western SE) and perhaps a couple shots CE87131B-4D19-4BAC-A514-051D0A78A618.png8D3133CC-237C-4CB5-A9B3-C01E2803F850.png157191B9-8CA9-4DE1-A1A5-2722CC4BA05A.png7322B8AA-5BCD-4118-9E2C-F829590A0543.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Looks like phase 3 MJO forcing is alright, and the reason why we have lost the longer duration warmer signal to a colder signal, but convection entering the maritime continent becomes problematic and encourages a southeast ridge, this time being legitimately boosted by the phase 4-5 MJO, but that looks like towards the middle/later part of feb, until then, we’re probably gonna have a decent pattern (phase 3 is friendly to the western SE) and perhaps a couple shots View attachment 111638View attachment 111639View attachment 111640View attachment 111641
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Some of the looks we are seeing in the indicies remind me of February 2014… I may be wrong, but wasn’t the MJO in phase for that?
 
We get caught in a pattern flip,shuffle mid to late Feb, we want have time to reverse get it of it before climo stamps us all out, minus the elevation guys. Been a very good January. Who would have thought 4 seperate events and mby over climo. But gotta confess, the more snow I get, the more I want.
This past storm I was glad to net close to 3. Went down into the Uwharries today and it was beatifull. But as has been stated, we missed a historic storm by about 12 hours.
If we are gonna hit one more east of the apps Feb 4 -20ish is our window imo. If I had a choice, Id take my chances on a big dog, knowing Im running the risk of BL, Sun angle jarb etc. Theres just enough cold there to be had so maybe mother nature will throw us one more bone.
 
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