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Pattern Failbruary Thread

First of many late winter & spring time wedges. We max on these Feb,March, April, May the most it seems. Helps keep severe in check a lot of times around here fortunately

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Myfrotho704_ said:
We were bn for precip in jan for CLT yet it wax the snowiest jan in a while,
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Though perhaps somewhat counterintuitive, I’ve found very little to no correlation between monthly total precipitation and monthly wintry precipitation in my ATL analyses. A good number of dry yet wintry months like you’re pointing out that are interspersed in the ATL records with wet ones is the reason. However, there is a good correlation between colder monthly temperature and monthly wintry precipitation, which of course is intuitive.
 
12Z GFS says look out weekend after the upcoming one:

F17CEB4F-9BCF-4B52-8D7B-B47612B9A76E.png

Close call for the SE coast but highly likely this is overdone there even though mid Feb is a peak time for that kind of thing:

48D6ABA6-3806-4411-BFBA-8DC116308457.png
 
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Spring is around the corner in the SE per the 12Z GFS!

A2C88CD4-9771-45AB-8C2C-22C63AAF3B5B.png

Actually, ensemble means have been suggesting one of the coldest airmasses of the season to date plunging into the SE near midmonth.
 
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Loganelliott99 said:
Just really unfortunate that’s it’s being wasted with no precipitation. Maybe something will pop up but it looks cold and dry
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The only wasted dry cold is dry cold for which one doesn’t go outside to enjoy. ?

Speaking of cold, here’s a fantasy map near the end of the 12Z GFS with a 1060+ mb high and -40s in NW Canada!

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Who you got...GEFS or EPS. Day 8-9...quite a difference with temps.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-4624000.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-4624000.png
 
KyloG said:
Who you got...GEFS or EPS. Day 8-9...quite a difference with temps.

View attachment 112611View attachment 112612
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Depends if we can wave break and flex that weak -nao signature. I'd lean eps mainly because I'm an eps truther but we have seen it water down small details around D10 in the mean more than once this winter and then have to "trend" toward the gefs
 
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