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Pattern Failbruary Thread

Given a PNA that looks to stay slightly negative as far out as CPC forecasts, this is astounding ... remembering of course, these are probabilities and provide no forecast as to actual temps ... nonetheless ... a good omen ...


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Phil,
Thanks for posting these beautiful maps!

The GEFS PNA forecast (shown below) after a drop to neutral Feb 1-2, actually rises back to +0.7 on Feb 4 and +0.9 on Feb 7 meaning it is a nice +PNA for the 6-10 making that cold map make sense. Then it drops back to neutral but not til days 13-14. So, most of the 8-14 is also +. Also, keep in mind that day 14 has been biased too negative of late.

pna.sprd2.gif
 
Phil,
Thanks for posting these beautiful maps!

The GEFS PNA forecast (shown below) after a drop to neutral Feb 1-2, actually rises back to +0.7 on Feb 4 and +0.9 on Feb 7 meaning it is a nice +PNA for the 6-10 making that cold map make sense. Then it drops back to neutral but not til days 13-14. So, most of the 8-14 is also +. Also, keep in mind that day 14 has been biased too negative of late.

View attachment 111375
Thanks, Larry!

In all honesty, the red lines are difficult to decipher (don't tell anyone my middel name is Jethro Bodine), but my reference was to the below, (which doesn't seem to crack + on the 14 day (odd how it and the 10 day don't line up ... BTW)) ... in any event, we look to have BN (God willing) other than a brief warm up late next week (Thur/Fri it looks like) ...

pna.mrf.gif
 
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GEFS seems to be liking a mixed bag event beginning Friday Evening until maybe Sunday
Seeing hints of that front lyeing there and overrunning potential earlier today on some runs. Hopefully they are sniffing something out and we can get some moisture in here with all this cold that keeps visiting us. Tell you we gonna be bone dry come spring. These 1/10 of an inch events arent helping the water table
 
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