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Looks like the wedge front passed Greensboro but then sunk passed South of PTI
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Pattern Failbruary Thread
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
GFS now playing with major fire in the Valentines Day period. Very close to a major bomb.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
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You aren’t kidding geez that is almost incredible. Precip on the eastern side comes from West of Cuba.
It’s trying to add a little more interest to Super Bowl weekend. Western ridge is not trending west, ha, and there is a lot of north-south meridional flow
Yep, my temp has dropped back to 48degF while it's in the 60s less than 20mi away. Crazy and this shows how a wedge can be soooo hard to scour out.
If this trend continues, midweek could pop something too.
D
Deleted member 609
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I'll be surprised if we don't score again in the Carolinas this month.
Somebody will have to explain this one to me when it comes to snow in NC outside the mtns. Is that a front pushed by the 1037 HP in Oklahoma? Are you suggesting a fropa with the 1009 LP off the coast continuing to throw moisture back into the pattern?
That rex block ?? they take a while to break down as well I’d bet on it taking longer to break down. The split flow pattern is amazing, there’s gonna be more chances
Oh. My. Goodness. Wxbell. Did. It 
whatalife
Moderator
This is awesome!
It only goes out to 90 hours, but certainly better than nothing! Nice design to contrast from SHARPpy.
Nomanslandva
Member
Dinner time we were still wedged in at 39. House was cold because work kept me from tending the stove and I am too cheep to let the boiler fill the gap. Heard the LLJ pop a good gust of wind and boom, temp is 52 and it is absolutely muggy outside.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
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2017-2023 Supporter
Snow is almost gone in a lot of places from today
Nomanslandva
Member
Yep, maybe 20% now and that's before the warmup this evening. 8" lasting over 3 weeks is a good run though!
NCSNOW
Member
Forget the monday wave. The tuesday wave is where its at.
This GFS run may be about to get fun.
Oh my.
Gotta love it.
Yay Boston maxing out the snow scale again
wen torch?
Ok the consistency is getting crazy.
Stephenb888
Member
Is this a good look? Or just another NC late bloomer.
Could definitely be a good look. However lots of moving parts here and really all we need to take from these runs are a growing consistency of a very far south southern stream wave and energy diving in.
More GEFS members now showing the signal.
Keep in mind that mid February is close to the peak in frequency for major snowstorms in the SE as a whole as well as ATL in particular and deeper in the SE fwiw. (Aside: RDU actually has a slightly higher peak for 6”+ storms 2/26-3/3.) ATL peak for its big ones is actually 2/10-16.
Cad Wedge NC
Member
06Z run of the GFS is a swing and a miss. Way different...... Even has a Lakes Low showing up.
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I wouldn’t call this bare but it surely isn’t active
ATLwxfan
Member
06z GFS says those clown cold GEFS maps are trash. N to AN for good chunks and a nice spring wedge at the end.
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Why would you trust a single OP run over the ensembles at this lead time other than bittercasting?
ATLwxfan
Member
Not saying I trust it. Just what it shows. Who’s to say it’s not leading the way, though? We did see some warming trends on the ensembles prior to last night.
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Cary_Snow95
Member
A balmy 62.8 in Cary this morning with a heavy downpour moving through
smast16
Member
It's not a single OP run. Showing this for a few runs yesterday too. Op isn't agreeing with Ens. Euro Op was the same for 00z yesterday too. OP was warm, while ens were cold.
SnowNiner
Member
Yeah, from the GEFS, that still looks like our best time period for a shot at storm. Other times are cool, but really not that impressive IMO. I think the +AO/Low north of AK may be stifling our cold air transport a bit and removing the cross polar flow we had last month.
Looks like a late bloomer phase at this time period is modeled from the precip output on the free maps. All we have to do is wait for the NW trend and hope the phase happens earlier. That's worked out well lately right? lol. The trough looks so far east, I'm not sure that's realistic.
Cliff diving time 
tennessee storm
Member
that pattern better produce me a big snow storm for the upper south midsouth regions, lol. if not then i am ready for spring and my tornado chasing and tracking.
I thought this tweet was really great regarding the event yesterday and today as far as the mixing line. NAM gets dissed on a lot, and rightfully so at long range, but sometimes it does a great job with sniffing out a stronger warm nose under 24-48 hours.
LickWx
Member
Ehh, next 10 days look seasonable to me . Seems like it’s dry , with average , maybe a bit mild days and cold nights. Looks like a big diurnal range type pattern . 55/28 type stuff . Obviously we aren’t shut out of the potential for cold , but as of now looks mostly in the middle to me . Which is not bad if you want it to snow , only thing you don’t want if you want snow is torch which we aren’t seeing.