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Pattern Failbruary Thread

KyloG said:
Back in the day we were waxing our sleds with this look on a day 6 GFS...?‍♂️

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I’m waxing mine here in NC .. that’s widespread 2-3 inches for us on this run verbatim.. *chefs kiss*

Nvm that included ice today .. precip was light but it was all snow for us with 1-2 inches maybe .. get a little more phasing and we’re in business
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I’m waxing mine here in NC .. that’s widespread 2-3 inches for us on this run verbatim.. *chefs kiss*

Nvm that included ice today .. precip was light but it was all snow for us with 1-2 inches maybe .. get a little more phasing and we’re in business
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This doesn't include anything from today so a light event with SE jackpotting but this map is trash, garbage, complete and utterly useless at this range
1644850800-y5ckVOgwTEE.png
 
verbatim the 12z ukmet is ripping snow with iffy surface temps in southern mississippi at hr 144 with a shortwave trough at neutral tilt about to go negative and a decent wedge signature building in. I think extrapolated out it would have been a decent hit for GA/SC/NC piedmont.
 
NWMSGuy said:
That low is pretty far south at hour 138 but get that to shift northwest a couple hundred miles and the upper south would have a nice storm to deal with.
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The only thing I'll say at this range is I definitely like energy already in the base of the trough with convection and a low already developing in the Gulf. But we've done this song and dance before, but it's an enticing look no doubt.
 
As we head toward late February, the major indices suggest an advantage to the SE warministas and those ready to play golf:

1. MJO: headed toward phase 4, a usually warm phase:


3F4495F2-043F-4752-B156-B00487B0197D.gif5CA2F74D-7746-4D7A-B792-1FAAE5E66117.gif

2B9D7589-A557-419A-823B-1E0307FF656E.png

2. PNA dropping to neutral and possibly the dreaded -PNA (hopefully not!):

008AADE9-74F6-4E1D-B42B-C7F2357DB514.gif

3. Strong +AO:

A03FD618-F591-4384-8BDC-BA3FA04A5D36.gif

4. Borderline strong +NAO:

4F3CCF2A-8153-49F3-AD56-67EF23028921.gif

So, enjoy the ups and downs/storminess of the next 10 days or so because mainly up/SER or at least more zonal looks to be favored for late month (DT was talking about this in his weekend video) per these indices as of now though hopefully that will change or at least not last too long.
 
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Pattern change is highly likely but I still say it’s likely towards the end of February. These things tend to be rushed by 7-10 days whether it be cold to warmth or warmth to cold. But the MJO is going to go into warmer phases likely around the 3rd week of February but the affect usually takes a week to take place down stream.
 
Euro looks good so far. The way the GFS has trended this season I don't know if suppression is good or not maybe we should be rooting for an apps runner at this point lol
 
Might be a one of those storms where the models are ambiguous until somebody gets NAM’d.


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With everyone distracted with the Valentines day storm, but has anyone noticed that's pretty much the only cold shot showing? Everything else is normal or Above normal 850's? And even then it's not even that cold? Some good 60's for Nc are showing up too right before.
 
smast16 said:
With everyone distracted with the Valentines day storm, but has anyone noticed that's pretty much the only cold shot showing? Everything else is normal or Above normal 850's? And even then it's not even that cold? Some good 60's for Nc are showing up too right before.
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Looking at the euro I count 8 of the next 9 days showing normal or below normal 850mb temp anomalies for our region. Only one day is above normal, two days if you include today.

Specifically for Clemson, SC it is showing 6 below normal days, two above normal days, and two average days. That's including today as an above normal day.

It is looking likely we won't get a serious cold shot with this stout western ridge though, which is lame.
 
rburrel2 said:
Looking at the euro I count 8 of the next 9 days showing normal or below normal 850mb temp anomalies for our region. Only one day is above normal, two days if you include today.

Specifically for Clemson, SC it is showing 6 below normal days, two above normal days, and two average days. That's including today as an above normal day.

It is looking likely we won't get a serious cold shot with this stout western ridge though, which is lame.
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Other than a very brief warm up from Friday 2/11 around lunch to early Sunday morning 2/13, there's really no above average anomalies until the very end of the run.
 
Lol at how close the euro is to mega bomb.

You can see both the gfs and euro phase into the base of the trough but it's so positive tilt and the energy is weak enough it doesn't tilt negative and wrap up. Not a bad d6-7 look imo I've seen people try to spin uglier looks into the next 93/00
 
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