lexxnchloe
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Pattern Failbruary Thread
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
I would love some snow but I am against the gfs in this case I don’t see the winter wx threat as shown Sunday. If anywhere, maybe s/e Virginia down to Raleigh NC could get clipped with precip. Despite the large amounts in the west shown on the gfs i things it’s wrong with moisture too far west. Just imo!
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
6-7 days out, the evolution is completely unknown…….
Usually you like to be here but theme of the winter has been trending towards positive tilt solutions- maybe this is the storm that flips the script. Like this look a lot more than the fart in the wind that was showing up last week. We're still far enough out to reel in a few major shifts or so.
First piece of interest is the wave over Mexico how much energy is there and how much gets out front. The second is the wave entering the US around 100 hours, how much does it shear how much can bundle up and dive south. The third is the trailing phaser how strong is it and where does it phase in. At this lead I would expect all 3 to be different from what we see on the models today and it doesn't require a lot of changes to go from later bloomer low end event to high end Miller A. But as @ILMRoss said the seasonal trend has been positive tilt and fast so we have to buck that which we may not be able to do
EPS with a southeast ridge 
I’ve been watching the evolution of how the precip gets started and headed…it’s heavily bent ENE. That can be good for eastern NC but usually not so much Charlotte metro areas in the west. It’s actually been consistent with this like previous systems too, precip will be an issue imo. Your right tho could change but would help a lot if it came together back near New Orleans and not Florida n/e..
from RAH (About as good as we can hope at this point):
Forecast uncertainty increases for Sunday and Monday. A vigorous
northern stream trough will drop into the OH/TN Valleys on Sunday
night and off the mid-Atlantic coast on Monday morning. Around the
same time, a southern stream wave moves across the northern Gulf.
Behind theses systems, a strong Arctic 1040+ mb surface high drops
into the northern Plains on Saturday with the shallow cold Arctic
air working around the Appalachians and easing into NC from PA/VA
late Sunday. Given the players, there`s a chance some phasing could
occur to support another weekend wintry storm system. However, the
latest GFS and EPS ensembles have a limited number of members
supporting such a scenario and the majority suggest a generally dry
event with much colder air moving into the region on Sunday night
into Monday. Monday mornings low-level thickness values range in the
1270s. With limited ensemble support and dry guidance provided by
the NBM, will opt to keep the forecast dry for now. Increased clouds
a bit and capped PoPs at 15%. Will need to monitor future guidance
as minor adjustments to the location and speed of these features
could significantly change the forecast. -Blaes
Forecast uncertainty increases for Sunday and Monday. A vigorous
northern stream trough will drop into the OH/TN Valleys on Sunday
night and off the mid-Atlantic coast on Monday morning. Around the
same time, a southern stream wave moves across the northern Gulf.
Behind theses systems, a strong Arctic 1040+ mb surface high drops
into the northern Plains on Saturday with the shallow cold Arctic
air working around the Appalachians and easing into NC from PA/VA
late Sunday. Given the players, there`s a chance some phasing could
occur to support another weekend wintry storm system. However, the
latest GFS and EPS ensembles have a limited number of members
supporting such a scenario and the majority suggest a generally dry
event with much colder air moving into the region on Sunday night
into Monday. Monday mornings low-level thickness values range in the
1270s. With limited ensemble support and dry guidance provided by
the NBM, will opt to keep the forecast dry for now. Increased clouds
a bit and capped PoPs at 15%. Will need to monitor future guidance
as minor adjustments to the location and speed of these features
could significantly change the forecast. -Blaes
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We've got some sweet mega frost potential tonight if we can clear out soon enough
RAH agrees and has a Hazardous Outlook for black ice. Freezing fog would be cool.
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather OutlookNational Weather Service Raleigh NC
407 PM EST Mon Feb 7 2022
NCZ007>011-021>027-038>041-073>077-083>086-082115-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-Stanly-
Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-
407 PM EST Mon Feb 7 2022
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Patches of black ice will be possible as temperatures decrease into
the upper 20s to near freezing and combine with lingering surface
wetness tonight into Tuesday morning. Additionally, areas of fog may
develop and become dense during the same time.
smast16
Member
We can't deny Climo for too long.
Looking at the forecasts for Feb 13th, we fortunately have the nice combo of a persistent pretty strong +PNA (~+1) and just about the most favorable big snow climo of the season (mid-Feb) still on our side despite a strong +AO (+2) and strong +NAO (+1). The MJO forecasts for 2/13 are split between phases 3 and 4.
Looking back at 6"+ RDU snowstorms since 1950, have there been any with a strong +AO, and +NAO?
- Not strong but 2/9/1967 did have a moderate +NAO and a weak +AO along with a moderate +PNA.
- 2/6/1984, during a similarly weakening La Nina and MJO phase 3, did have a strong +NAO and moderate +AO along with a moderate +PNA.
- 1/7-8/1988 had a moderate +NAO but it had a neutral rather than +AO. It had a moderate +PNA.
- 2/17-18/1989, during La Nina, had a very strong +NAO and +AO along with a neutral PNA.
- 1/17-18/2018, during La Nina and phase 4 MJO, had a strong +NAO though only weak +AO along with a neutral PNA.
- 12/9-10/2018, during MJO phase 3, had a moderate +NAO but it had a neutral rather than +AO. It had a moderate +PNA.
The items I bolded, whether they be nearby dates (3 storms), similar ENSO (3 storms), similar MJO (3 storms), moderate+ +NAO (all 6 storms), or moderate+ +AO (2 storms), are all somewhat analogous to 2/13/22 indices. The most encouraging analogs (the most bolded items) are 2/6/1984 (5 bolded), 2/17-18/1989 (4 bolded), and 1/17-18/2018 (3 bolded). Plus we have the borderline strong PNA on our side. This analysis is by no means for the purpose of predicting a big (or any) winter storm for the SE US as they're not too common. Rather it is to show it is far too early (6 days out) to give up hope based on these analogs despite a strong +NAO and +AO.
Did any of these 6 hit areas outside of NC pretty significantly? The answer is yes for all 6, especially 2/9/1967, 1/17/1988, and 1/17-18/2018.
- 2/9/1967 gave significant snow to N and C GA: ATL 2" AHN 2.5", MCN 1", AGS 3.4"; AL: BHM: 0.9"; SC: CAE 3.3", GSP 1.5"
- 2/6/1984 gave good snow to N GA/TN/upstate SC
- 1/7/1988 classic pretty boardwide SN/IP/ZR, with even some ZR down in SAV and CHS
- 2/17-18/1989 major ZR GSP and nearby CAD areas
- 1/17-18/2018 sig snow much of N/C GA, GSP, N/C AL, TN
- 12/9-10/2018 GSP big mess
*Note that GSP got hit with all 6
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Having no ensemble support at all at day 6-7 is a giant red flag for me not to get my hopes up yet. GSP is already at 6.5 for the season and the past 30 years 6-8 inches for the season has been the ceiling. Double digit years were frequent before 93 and I realize they can and at some point will happen again. But that's a long stretch without one so I have to bet the streak here and say we're done in GSP minus maybe a novelty event at some point. And that's ok, GSP, CLT and even CAE have met or exceeded climo and can't complain either way. ATL and RDU haven't had the best luck the past month and may can complain some.
pcbjr
Member
Larry,
I've told ya that my best sleet in Hogtown happened in late Feb ... after a warmup ... bottom line, it ain't over 'till it's over, and the PNA is still doing its positive thing ... even at 14 days ...
Yeah, I'm not betting on it but rather am saying just watch the period for the possibility since others have been posting about it. If only the cold air would come in a little earlier or moisture come in a bit later and better meet up with the cold, then I'd really be excited for someone! We're still far enough out for the models to be off quite a bit.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
I will never trust this set up again 
T
Absolutely there is a chance. I'll be watching closely the next few days and hoping for the best in my area and pulling even harder for the ones who've missed out so far.
lexxnchloe
Member
Is that from a super upper low?
It is from a trailing upper disturbance rather than from the offshore surface low that precedes it. The offshore low doesn't have cold enough air to work with and thus produces rain. That's why I'm hoping for the surface low's moisture and cold air to better match up on their timing. Get the cold air in sooner for example. Still far enough out for uncertainty.
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L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Looks a lot like the system last Friday
Larry,
I've told ya that my best sleet in Hogtown happened in late Feb ... after a warmup ... bottom line, it ain't over 'till it's over, and the PNA is still doing its positive thing ... even at 14 days ...
View attachment 113024
Phli, this longlived +PNA is awesome!
Do you remember which year Hogtown had that late Feb sleet?
GEFS much more enthusiastic this run .. goes to show how delicate this set up is .. as all of our have been this year due to the lack of blocking .. every storm can go either way quickly .. hmm
pcbjr
Member
Larry,
I'd have to do some records retrieval. It was sometime in the late '90's or early 00's I think. I was representing a landowner/minuite market operator out near Keystone in a very rural stetch and his property had been polluted by an 18 wheeler fuel delivery truck that spilled a goodly discharge of gasoline on his property when trying to do a U-turn on the highway by Lake Crystal. FL DEP charged him with the full cost of remediation. I sued the fuel company for reimbursement. We hired a firm to come out and assess the extent of the discharge, and to prove that the pollution dated to the date in question and was not from a prior event. The firm was from Canada. Those guys were so happy to come to FL for a week in Feb ... little did they suspect or expect ... their cameras froze ... they all stayed inside my client's store the better part of 2 of the 5 days. I remember freezing my tail off, pingers galore, and Keystone, being 20 milkes from Hogtown driving home only to have my wife tell me it was snowing ice all day ... just cannot give you a year ...
Lots of different evolutions on the GEFS, clippers, ULT snow band, few weakly phased members, and even a couple west with a mostly rain event
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Noice for coastal areas in fantasy land 
I’m taking all of that and blending it with the CMC.
lexxnchloe
Member
A strong cold front with rain changing to snow in FLA.
Just another case of the man keeping us down
Noobie
Follow the hostess, your table is waiting
Everybody put your hands in the air and wave them around as if there are no repercussions
Noobie
Follow the hostess, your table is waiting
Everybody put your hands in the air and wave them around as if there are no repercussions
