smast16
Member
Good news indeed, I've been freezing, and i'm ready for green leaves and birds singing.
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Pattern Failbruary Thread
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lexxnchloe
Member
This actually looks promising to me. Will that big high bring down some arctic air SE? That high over Montana could bring some really cold air with it.
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
I'll cash in on this now!
lexxnchloe
Member
Maybe the feb warmup will be temporary. We can hope. This would be great just a little more south
Unfortunately you’re looking at a very long range image here. These very much do not come to reality. Most things passed 300 are what we call fantasy land .. where storms go to frolic but when you get towards 240 hours out you start seeing actual signs of what a pattern may look like in that range .. overall ensembles are painting a picture that we get south eastern ridging to take over come February at least for the first half .. now interesting to note a lot of the ensembles want to bring a sort of CAD issue for those areas in the piedmont regions but this similarly happened last February where we ended up torching and people west of us cashed in on the cold airMaybe the feb warmup will be temporary. We can hope. This would be great just a little more south
Torch. Torch and torch.
GEFS is a southeast ridge torch.
EPS is a zonal pacific blaster torch
GEFS is a southeast ridge torch.
EPS is a zonal pacific blaster torch
HSVweather
Member
Well, I tried to pick a good mix of hot and cold names in my top 10. Maybe we can flip back to a more favorable pattern to end the month.
Man I hate all this torching. Time to crank up the AC.
However models don’t have a clue what’s going to happen in the next 2 weeks, look at the spreads. We could trend to a colder pattern or warmer 
The models often try to change the pattern too quickly in these situations, so we shall see. Not gonna meltdown over 300+ hour model projections, even from the ensembles.
Mmm low amped right side/weak maritime forcing in February… delicious 
Going to be so hard to get cold again too, having to get it all the way back over here from Siberia and all. #torchforeverOnly if there was ensemble supportAnd not a - tilted GOA ridge as the main signal View attachment 110231View attachment 110232
Seriously, I wouldn't worry too much about it. People have been overly concerned about the end of winter for a long time. My guess is that we probably warm up for a bit.
That’s how you go zonal 60’s to winter storm in 24 hours.
Somehow the NAO will trend negative.. our SER will scream and then we will CAD our way into some cold rain .. maybe ice if we’re lucky but probably cold rain plus some warm days in between .. really hoping latter month towards early March can come back and give us a little 2 week stretch of something to really track but you know how those set ups go .. we gotta worry about a lot more variablesOnly if there was ensemble support
tennessee storm
Member
I bout ready to start storm chasing and tracking some strong ? mid February through spring
Zonas
Member
Forgettaboutit February!
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WXinCanton
Member
Yes please
bigstick10
Member
Fire February..
February About to get saved 
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Judah is about as reliable as BAM. It's going to be warm in the east. This is a contra-indicator.
I wonder What has BAM been saying the past few weeks lmao
I see you February 5th-9th
Cold is probably not done making a return. Especially looking at latest long range looks. May be some back and forth this month. The western sections of the southeast and the mid and upper south are still looking for the good one.
lexxnchloe
Member
I know this is rain here but it could be more south in 15 days. I dont think Feb is totally lost.
Brent
Member
Where do I sign up?
Euro definitely interesting with the trends on the west coast at the end of its run .. definitely running into higher heights out there and ridging becoming more prominent again
Prestige Worldwide
Member
I know this is rain here but it could be more south in 15 days. I dont think Feb is totally lost.
Most of Feb is an unknown this far out. The only somewhat known is that the first few days look mild right now, just as was the start of January. Several ENSO analog Febs actually suggest a chilly to cold month overall.
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Hold on… 
EPS is really close to another +PNA event… I guess models are feeling that +EAMT after all. I thought the event was gonna whiff 
I wonder if the dying La Nina has anything to do with it.
Golf weather. I love cold but my knuckles are all split from the heat running for the whole month. I wouldn’t mind a couple days of window opening weather.Yes please
iGRXY
Member
Even with all this potential extended SER for a couple of weeks, we are going to figure out a way to CAD at least half of those days I’d almost bet. Go ahead and get prepared to see upper 60’s go to upper 40’s the closer we get to verification. Happens every time.
Check west coast, we’ll never get rid of this positive PNA 
LickWx
Member
Except when it didn’t last December .
How far down will this cold air on the 0Z GFS get? It will have to fight the SER.
I hate -PNAs. Wx life in the SE is so much easier with a +PNA.