SnowsWonderful
Member
Feb-"Debbie Downer"-ruary
I'm not as smart as you with weather stuff, but does this look like a possibility to extend winter into February if it came to fruition?There’s already a stout + east Asia mountain torque event being shown on the GEFS/EPS, that was part of what switched our pattern in early January by speeding the pacific jet up and extended it, that’s kinda of funny lol imagine us defying canonical nina pattern with +AAM influence into the jetView attachment 108464View attachment 108465
It’s gonna get warmer in early-mid February, but this may make the second half of the month interesting/MarchI'm not as smart as you with weather stuff, but does this look like a possibility to extend winter into February if it came to fruition?
I gotcha. I guess hopefully we will return to winter again in February at some pointIt’s gonna get warmer in early-mid February, but this may make the second half of the month interesting/March
I gotcha. I guess hopefully we will return to winter again in February at some point
Larry, I hope the cfs is correct.Well, we first have to leave winter in order to return to winter.
Meanwhile, the last 4 runs of the CFS suggest that after the upcoming 2 weeks that the US will continue stubbornly cold Rockies to NE/Mid Atlantic to north/west portions of the SE with near normal central SE and AN FL (SER influence). So, looking at the US as a whole and your area in particular, there’s no end to winter in sight per the last 24 hours of CFS runs fwiw.
Well, we first have to leave winter in order to return to winter.
Meanwhile, the last 4 runs of the CFS suggest that after the upcoming 2 weeks that the US will continue stubbornly cold Rockies to NE/Mid Atlantic to north/west portions of the SE with near normal central SE and AN FL (SER influence). So, looking at the US as a whole and your area in particular, there’s no end to winter in sight per the last 24 hours of CFS runs fwiw.
I'm not surprised, for a while now the mid range of the GFS showed the western ridging backing off the coast and back towards over the Aleutian Islands. I figured it would take a couple days before long range models reflected that mid range change.The CFS has since turned warmer for Feb but it flips around a lot. More significantly, the GEFS based indices’ forecasts for early Feb are more favorable for AN in the SE with a -PNA (as opposed to earlier predictions of just a lessening of the +PNA), which @pcbjr was rightfully warning us about.That along with no -AO or -NAO wouldn’t bode well for my -3 F prediction to @Lickwx for 2/1-14 prediction for RDU and ATL. Also, the EPS still has the MJO going into warm phase 6, which is discouraging on its own though the GEFS keeps it inside the circle.
In the meantime, enjoy the cold last part of a January, regardless!