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Pattern Failbruary Thread

Myfrotho704_ said:
One of the only Differences is, Dallas is gonna likely miss out on snow and get IP/ZR
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Yeah pretty much

Last February the cold was always more the story even there. It did snow more significantly up here I believe. Dallas only had 4 inches which wasn't that impressive

If that freezing rain on the GFS verifies it's gonna have way more impact down there
 
NWMSGuy said:
Memphis cautiously looking over the forecast going into next week. Here's a piece from their afternoon AFD:

Rain chances will increase Tuesday Night and into Wednesday as
the cold front eventually sinks into the Mid-South. PW`s will be
150 to 250 percent above normal for this time of year. Thus, the
threat for heavy rain will be possible with this system. In
addition, winter weather will be a concern. Arctic air will be
plunging in behind the front. The big question will be where
exactly will be the front located. There remains differences
amongst the models on where exactly the front will be as the front
is expected to slow its progression and possibly stall Wednesday
Night into Thursday as a SFC low develops over Texas and tracks
northeastward along the front. In addition, there are differences
in regards to timing of an upper trough moving into the region.
There is a scenario where the arctic air filters in but a shallow
warm layer remains just above the surface to produce freezing
rain. If the arctic air plunges in quicker, precipitation may turn
to all snow. Do expect at least a short period of snow on the
back edge of the precipitation Thursday afternoon into the evening
as the precipitation tapers off. However, too much uncertainty
during this time period to pinpoint what exactly will happen.
Mentioned freezing rain and snow in forecast for Wednesday Night
into Thursday. Stay tuned to the latest forecasts.
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Looks like your going to be right on the dividing line. You could get either heavy rain or freezing rain. Looks like all rain for me
 
Gonna be the year of stuck SW short waves. If the system would kick right after the first wave it would be a slam dunk for someone in the south.
 
Lights out in Memphis
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Snowman63 said:
Oklahoma usually always has wild Winter weather and Tulsa is in a good location. It just a little late getting started this season.
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It would be funny if we get our average of 8 inches in one storm but I'm not jinxing anything yet ? it's been a rough month though. All these storms with no moisture and now looking at this on the models it's just hard to believe
 
Looking more and more like it could turn into an overrunning event or us .. euro way less amped than other models3427BEA2-01F8-4B10-A613-E5A2E63D3C52.jpeg
 
The UKIE is just a massive winter storm for all of Arkansas, NW Miss and most of Tennessee and Kentucky. It and the Euro are in a camp, the GFS is in a camp and the Canadian is between them. The Euro has trended progressively away from first a Lakes cutter, now it's trending away from an Apps cutter.
 
John1122 said:
The UKIE is just a massive winter storm for all of Arkansas, NW Miss and most of Tennessee and Kentucky. It and the Euro are in a camp, the GFS is in a camp and the Canadian is between them. The Euro has trended progressively away from first a Lakes cutter, now it's trending away from an Apps cutter.
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Have any images to share of the UKIE?
 
John1122 said:
These two, the snowfall map is where frozen falls, but it's not snow in most of Tennessee and Mississippi. Temps are 27-30 degrees with 850s above 0c, so it's a big ice or sleet event.
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If most of that is freezing rain it would certainly be lights out.
 
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