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Pattern Failbruary Thread

Broken024 said:
Obviously alot of this is ice. But that was a beginning to end ? run on GFS. SER is there though.
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If this map verifies, if would herald the beginning of a new Ice age in North Carolina. I've always wanted to go Wooly Mammoth hunting.
 
weatherfide said:
It is many days of low 20's at night and mid 40's during the day and bone dry. No fun in that. Hoping for more energy in the gulf and not so much suppression in the EPS.
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The thought that the EPS/EURO are showing similarities right now did entered my mind. How can the GFS continue to show both cold and a active STJ with almost no phasing is beyond me. I suspect tomorrow and/Saturday we will need to see a flip on both EPS/Euro for next weekend. Also, notice in this case the GFS seems to be kicking butt and is the first to the party.


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This is the second time this month the GFS has shown over 40 inches of snow accumulation for central NC. 3rd time over 30 inches. All these instances where separated by days, weeks time. Wasn't back to back consecutive runs. So far I've netted over 6 in my back yard. And probably lost close to that much the first snow we had on the day we flipped from midnight lows of 60 and it was snowing sheets of notebook paper by 8am.
 
weatherfide said:
It is many days of low 20's at night and mid 40's during the day and bone dry. No fun in that. Hoping for more energy in the gulf and not so much suppression in the EPS.
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And that’s highs in upper 20s and single digits lows here in VA. Maybe we reel in one more than all beg for torch??
 
12z EPS says enjoy Feb 2nd and 3rd. After that we are going to be on the cool side of things.
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A copy of a post of mine that I just made in the January thread, which was in there because I was bumping a February 1-14 ATL/RDU prediction that I made on January 17th after then being asked to make a February prediction:

Bumping this post of mine from January 17th during a period when the general discussion was centering on a potential overall pattern change to mild in early February as models were hinting at a warmup near February 1st as the PNA was then predicted to fall late this month. I was doubting that change to a mild pattern citing ENSO analogs (1985, 1972, 1934, 1899, and 1895), the MJO predictions (not the Euro phase 6 prog), and cold extended models (Euro weeklies/CFS) and was asked for a prediction:

“I’m predicting that ATL and RDU will both be at least 3 BN 2/1-14.”

Looking at today’s models, I feel pretty good about this despite an expected mild February 1-3. Let’s see what happens.
 
GaWx said:
A copy of a post of mine that I just made in the January thread, which was in there because I was bumping a February 1-14 ATL/RDU prediction that I made on January 17th after then being asked to make a February prediction:

Bumping this post of mine from January 17th during a period when the general discussion was centering on a potential overall pattern change to mild in early February as models were hinting at a warmup near February 1st as the PNA was then predicted to fall late this month. I was doubting that change to a mild pattern citing ENSO analogs (1985, 1972, 1934, 1899, and 1895), the MJO predictions (not the Euro phase 6 prog), and cold extended models (Euro weeklies/CFS) and was asked for a prediction:

“I’m predicting that ATL and RDU will both be at least 3 BN 2/1-14.”

Looking at today’s models, I feel pretty good about this despite an expected mild February 1-3. Let’s see what happens.
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