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Pattern Failbruary Thread

NickyBGuarantee said:
Despite Brent getting on the goods here soon.. I really don’t see a big winter weather pattern .. we definitely have some cold air flying around and the SER is trying to flex at the same time .. just a lot more threading the needle type of scenarios we might have to lean on at least for this first half of February
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So basically back to normal for the southeast ?
Definitely been one of the coldest stretches here in a few years. After polar opposite’s from December to January maybe February will give us a mix of those two months.
 
Looks like phase 3 MJO forcing is alright, and the reason why we have lost the longer duration warmer signal to a colder signal, but convection entering the maritime continent becomes problematic and encourages a southeast ridge, this time being legitimately boosted by the phase 4-5 MJO, but that looks like towards the middle/later part of feb, until then, we’re probably gonna have a decent pattern (phase 3 is friendly to the western SE) and perhaps a couple shots CE87131B-4D19-4BAC-A514-051D0A78A618.png8D3133CC-237C-4CB5-A9B3-C01E2803F850.png157191B9-8CA9-4DE1-A1A5-2722CC4BA05A.png7322B8AA-5BCD-4118-9E2C-F829590A0543.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Looks like phase 3 MJO forcing is alright, and the reason why we have lost the longer duration warmer signal to a colder signal, but convection entering the maritime continent becomes problematic and encourages a southeast ridge, this time being legitimately boosted by the phase 4-5 MJO, but that looks like towards the middle/later part of feb, until then, we’re probably gonna have a decent pattern (phase 3 is friendly to the western SE) and perhaps a couple shots View attachment 111638View attachment 111639View attachment 111640View attachment 111641
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Some of the looks we are seeing in the indicies remind me of February 2014… I may be wrong, but wasn’t the MJO in phase for that?
 
We get caught in a pattern flip,shuffle mid to late Feb, we want have time to reverse get it of it before climo stamps us all out, minus the elevation guys. Been a very good January. Who would have thought 4 seperate events and mby over climo. But gotta confess, the more snow I get, the more I want.
This past storm I was glad to net close to 3. Went down into the Uwharries today and it was beatifull. But as has been stated, we missed a historic storm by about 12 hours.
If we are gonna hit one more east of the apps Feb 4 -20ish is our window imo. If I had a choice, Id take my chances on a big dog, knowing Im running the risk of BL, Sun angle jarb etc. Theres just enough cold there to be had so maybe mother nature will throw us one more bone.
 
Sitting here in Northwest MS and trying to decide if we are going to see Severe and Heavy Rain or something along the lines of Ice. How is the GFS at handling the southeast ridge at this range?
 
BufordWX said:
Biggest question right now is gonna be qpf. Surface looks to be well below freezing. GFS has us in the teens most of the event. Looking good right now.View attachment 111655
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This has the potential to be the biggest snowstorm I've seen since 1993 in Alabama and I barely remember that ?

This would be unprecedented in the 20 years since if the GFS is even half right
 
Progressive but very cold shots of northern stream energy around the GLs/SE can with lots of sfc HP to our north. some hint of SS energy. Pattern that needs to be watched but no storm threat yet
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Temps already marginal. Power grid is safe
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Our source region tho for the damming high ?
A147A41A-784B-4744-B6CA-861CA9DD2E58.png

worth noting that the NE is getting lots of snowpack after their big storm then we have this next week, there’s about to be a crap ton of snowpack to our NE/N. I think the only issue is how progressive the N/S energy will be, not having much time to coil up/amp up around SE Canada to keep a big CAD around might be a issue, but if we can fix that then we have something to really watch, EPS isn’t far off as well58772D12-50CF-48C7-808C-34C40EAD647A.png
 
Memphis cautiously looking over the forecast going into next week. Here's a piece from their afternoon AFD:

Rain chances will increase Tuesday Night and into Wednesday as
the cold front eventually sinks into the Mid-South. PW`s will be
150 to 250 percent above normal for this time of year. Thus, the
threat for heavy rain will be possible with this system. In
addition, winter weather will be a concern. Arctic air will be
plunging in behind the front. The big question will be where
exactly will be the front located. There remains differences
amongst the models on where exactly the front will be as the front
is expected to slow its progression and possibly stall Wednesday
Night into Thursday as a SFC low develops over Texas and tracks
northeastward along the front. In addition, there are differences
in regards to timing of an upper trough moving into the region.
There is a scenario where the arctic air filters in but a shallow
warm layer remains just above the surface to produce freezing
rain. If the arctic air plunges in quicker, precipitation may turn
to all snow. Do expect at least a short period of snow on the
back edge of the precipitation Thursday afternoon into the evening
as the precipitation tapers off. However, too much uncertainty
during this time period to pinpoint what exactly will happen.
Mentioned freezing rain and snow in forecast for Wednesday Night
into Thursday. Stay tuned to the latest forecasts.
 
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