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Pattern Failbruary Thread

The first time in a while I have not seen a Wintry weather threat on the modeling! Three straight weekends of snow.. is February going to change the pattern? Looks like some cold's gonna come back, I know that much! (edit: lets not forget brent though... models have a setup for him next week!)
 
Shawn said:
The first time in a while I have not seen a Wintry weather threat on the modeling! Three straight weekends of snow.. is February going to change the pattern? Looks like some cold's gonna come back, I know that much! (edit: lets not forget brent though... models have a setup for him next week!)
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Did you miss the euro?
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I'm not gonna lie, the warmup is going to feel pretty good next week.

I'm going to hold out some hope for a possible big dog, but if winter was mostly just what happened in January, that wouldn't hurt me.
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I need more than one month of winter. Summer last for 6 months. I hope it stays cool as long as possible.
 
Despite Brent getting on the goods here soon.. I really don’t see a big winter weather pattern .. we definitely have some cold air flying around and the SER is trying to flex at the same time .. just a lot more threading the needle type of scenarios we might have to lean on at least for this first half of February
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Despite Brent getting on the goods here soon.. I really don’t see a big winter weather pattern .. we definitely have some cold air flying around and the SER is trying to flex at the same time .. just a lot more threading the needle type of scenarios we might have to lean on at least for this first half of February
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Well we have this possibility, last nights Euro looked similar and was colder
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Despite Brent getting on the goods here soon.. I really don’t see a big winter weather pattern .. we definitely have some cold air flying around and the SER is trying to flex at the same time .. just a lot more threading the needle type of scenarios we might have to lean on at least for this first half of February
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Seeing the SER trying to flex, along with the parade of of cold high pressures showing up and the snow pack across the northern tier really screams to me for the potential of a widespread Ice/sleet storm across much of the south. Those were the ingredients that help set up the February 1994 Ice Storm
 
Stormdoc said:
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Well we have this possibility, last nights Euro looked similar and was colder
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Chazwin said:
Seeing the SER trying to flex, along with the parade of of cold high pressures showing up and the snow pack across the northern tier really screams to me for the potential of a widespread Ice/sleet storm across much of the south. Those were the ingredients that help set up the February 1994 Ice Storm
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Yeah I guess the set ups just don’t looks as stout as what we’ve been dealing with and there’s plenty of fail opportunity within them .. plus MJO I don’t think is going the right direction .. i dont know we Had a 22 degree CAD 2 weeks ago and I still just got an inch of sleet and .15 freezing rain .. I don’t think I’ll ever see a true ice storm lol
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Despite Brent getting on the goods here soon.. I really don’t see a big winter weather pattern .. we definitely have some cold air flying around and the SER is trying to flex at the same time .. just a lot more threading the needle type of scenarios we might have to lean on at least for this first half of February
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Lol.. that's usually when my neck of the woods cashes in.
No science to back my comment up, just good ol'fashion living and learning.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Yeah I guess the set ups just don’t looks as stout as what we’ve been dealing with and there’s plenty of fail opportunity within them .. plus MJO I don’t think is going the right direction .. i dont know we Had a 22 degree CAD 2 weeks ago and I still just got an inch of sleet and .15 freezing rain .. I don’t think I’ll ever see a true ice storm lol
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As long as the MJO is hanging around in the COD, I don’t think we’ll see any extended period above average. The PNA still looks to stay mostly positive for the next couple weeks as well. I would really watch the period around the 2/6-2/8 for something to show
 
One can't help but notice that the epic arctic intrusions with their attendant 1050mB+ highs pressing continent-wide have been largely muted over the past day or so of runs.

Still a good pattern, yes, but nothing epic it would seem. Mainly just the EURO with its thread-the-needle 8-day system which of course keeps me interested.
 
Stormdoc said:
View attachment 111605
Well we have this possibility, last nights Euro looked similar and was colder
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That high pressure is not in too bad of a position sitting on the tip of Maine but I see that pesky Great Lakes low has appeared again. That might throw some ice our way in Virginia and North Carolina but that look is not ideal for snow lovers at this time. Between now and 2/6 though there will be lots of time to watch the patterns and see if something pops. One thing is certain, lots of things will probably change between now and then.
 
NorthDFWwx said:
Texans who enjoy having light & heat are OK with "nothing epic."
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I'll trade with you in a heartbeat. The Wild Weather Monger lives for destructive ice and snowstorms.

Trick question. Who here wouldn't bust their pants for 2' of wet snow knowing that power is going down because of it, but shudders at the thought of a 1/2" of ice accrual?
 
Wow Memphis
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Wild Weather Monger said:
I'll trade with you in a heartbeat. The Wild Weather Monger lives for destructive ice and snowstorms.

Trick question. Who here wouldn't bust their pants for 2' of wet snow knowing that power is going down because of it, but shudders at the thought of a 1/2" of ice accrual?
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2' of wet snow that melts after a day or two as temps return to normal is one thing.

A 2-3 feet historic blizzard in a region used to snow is also one thing.

A measely 3" of powder with temps stuck below freezing for 7 days and days without power is the worst of both worlds.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Despite Brent getting on the goods here soon.. I really don’t see a big winter weather pattern .. we definitely have some cold air flying around and the SER is trying to flex at the same time .. just a lot more threading the needle type of scenarios we might have to lean on at least for this first half of February
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Maybe for y’all, but I’d take the EPS after the warm up next week every day for snow chances.
 
Interestingly enough the euro is much weaker with the SER that other models and also weaker and less amped with the low .. wonder how that effects downstream but it’s nice to see the euro that way when it’s usually the GFS doing that
 
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