This is one of the uglier step down looks you can possibly get for the SE 
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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
Psalm 148:8
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I give this winter an F- . When you can’t even buy more than 2 crazy fantasy land snowstorms… it sucks!!!! I haven’t seen a good snow in years!!! Never been this long without a good 2 inch or better snow…. Very depressing.
Stormlover
Member
I believe the UAH readings are as accurate as it gets. Only using surface locations that have had the heat island affect built around them in recent decades isn't a good way to go.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
You do realize that UAH doesn't actually measure surface temperatures right? It's a sfc - 5km AGL average.
Apples-oranges.
ATLwxfan
Member
Depending on where you live you might need to move to see a good two inches. The mountains will be where the vestiges of winter will remain in the mid south.
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Stormlover
Member
Yep, but I also do not trust readings of sensors that have been in the same place forever while huge buildup of concrete heat islands go around them
I don’t have a single tree budding. I’m not doubting the torch but that map is very wrong. My daffodils are about 3” above ground.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Well, clearly you don’t know how satellite based measurements work, because satellites are constantly moving & experience significant orbital decay over periods of months-years & they don’t measure the temperature even at the same time of the day at the same place on the earth. You have to model that before you even begin thinking about bias corrections. They also don’t directly measure temperature in-situ either like surface instruments do. All of this is besides the point that you tried (& failed horribly) to interject my point about surface temperatures being warm, with satellite-based estimates that don’t actually measure surface temperature to begin with. I recommend educating yourself on this topic before responding again
The indices are as bad as they get. AO and NAO raging positive. PNA doing deeply negative. The MJO may go into the circle later but I don't see how any winter weather happens unless its a March miracle. Which I have little hope for those anymore outside of a novelty event. Which I'll gladly take this year.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
There’s a whole lotta up and very little down outside of this weekend
ATLwxfan
Member
There’s nothing really to suggest that the indices would change during March. Maybe the effects of La Niña weaken a bit.
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This weekend was down.. next weekend looks down as well.. let’s see where we’re at by next weekend. I’m sure another down period will show up by then as well per euro and Canadian ensembles it’ll be the next weekend. Let’s see what happens!
ATLwxfan
Member
Another overrunning, Texas special at the end of the GFS run. I would bet money that that verifies.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It’ll be no less than about +3-4C above average once we hit mid month. These “cold shots” don’t even show up on the 5-7 day averaged anomalies, which shows they’re not really having much of an effect on the pattern, other than making it slightly less warm than it was going to be.
Again, I never said anything about being consistently below average. Roller coaster. That’s all. With chances of rain. That’s all. Thank you for reminding us though! We know this winter has sucked for sure.
Tarheelwx
Member
EPS and GEPS is quite a bit different from the GEFS. I think the “winter’s over” and throwing in the towel is a bit premature, though odds certainly appear Tonga or it at this time.
TW
TW
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It's a roller coaster filled with mostly ups and maybe 1 or 2 dips the next 2+ weeks & 2 is being very generous.
You know it's bad when the "cold shots" don't even register on the 5-day means.
I hope they don't. I'm tired of cold springs that still won't snow after torching all winter
Cad Wedge NC
Member
I think you let GW influence all of your forecasts. You do not even entertain the possibility of anything cold. Your biased. UHI is real and you know it. Also, UAH is the best indicator of exactly what's happening in our atmosphere. Can't trust surface readings in urban areas.
NCSNOW
Member
With 5 days down and 23 to go in February GSO is -2.7. Thatll get wiped out this week, before a weekend retreat maybe next weekend.
We dont want leaf outs in February, it wrecks fruit crops,Peaches/Apples and strawberries. Hopefully we can mix in some upper 20's at night from time to time.
We dont want leaf outs in February, it wrecks fruit crops,Peaches/Apples and strawberries. Hopefully we can mix in some upper 20's at night from time to time.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Well I have to admit, it’s served me right the last several years and this year is another good example. UAH isn’t the surface and it certainly isn’t gospel, the uncertainty bars with satellite based temperature estimates are larger than surface based measurements, but I wouldn’t expect someone to understand or be willing to understand this fact if they don’t think AGW is real to begin with. UAH is gospel to AGW deniers who don’t know how these datasets are actually created to begin with, and they usually just blindly cherry pick the one that shows the least amount of warming (in this case UAH) to fit a certain narrative. If you feel insulted by this, so be it, but I used to be a denier like you and said these very things as recently as 6-7 years ago, so I understand the motivation behind what you’re alluding to
The UHI effect is just as real as the engine room intake bias in ships during the mid 20th century that plagued SST measurements in the 1930s-40s (which covered a much fraction of the globe than land based instruments & thus had a bigger impact on global temps), or the orbital drift bias in satellites, or the fact that they don’t even measure temperatures at the same location on the earth at the same time of the day in most cases. I could go on & on
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It’s not going to have any effect on our weather until mid March at the very earliest. The raging +AO in the troposphere is not conducive for downward propagation of the circulation anomalies in the stratosphere that need to occur to have an impact on our sensible weather. If anything, this SSWE is making the pattern worse in February thru its teleconnection to the tropics
Flotown
Member
we get ,its gonna be warm overall...geez
DFA for the 95 corridor in NC/SC
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Don’t shoot the messenger.
Flotown
Member
no disrespect, i enjoy your post ,kidding more or less
Solid analysis about February
Just reading some different things coming from Larry. Not quite so...well, pessimistic
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There's a mountain thread it's been dead. Fire away in there maybe some of the locals could help out
It's impressive right now probably less than .25 here
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Latest Euro seasonal for February
About +4C anomalies vs the 1993-2016 climate period. Would be looking at a top 5 warmest Feb on record since 1887 in places like Raleigh
About +4C anomalies vs the 1993-2016 climate period. Would be looking at a top 5 warmest Feb on record since 1887 in places like Raleigh
Stormlover
Member
No need to get personal because you disagree.