LickWx
Member
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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
The euro was close and the Canadian was a little better. I haven't giving up but it's now time to start seeing some favorable trends. Really wouldn't take much.
Yeah for sure. Good post. Wishcasting is not discussing potential weather events.
So to be fair RAH has backed away from the wintery threat.
"The mid-level flow will turn more southwesterly from Wednesday night
into Friday, increasing confidence in precipitation during this
period. Another wave will move along the frontal zone Wednesday
night into Thursday, inducing a surface low that will develop off
the NC coast. So POPs increase to likely during this period. This
low and associated rain may help keep temperatures slightly below
normal on Thursday despite the high moving offshore. But they still
look too warm for anything but liquid. A vigorous shortwave will
then move across the Deep South on Thursday night - Friday, inducing
better mid-level height falls and continuing decent precipitation
chances. A cold front will finally sweep through on Friday behind
this system, but the GFS and ECMWF trended significantly slower with
its timing on their 00z runs. So keep POPs going into the day on
Friday and increased forecast temperatures a bit. This looks to be a
case of cold air chasing the precipitation, so again not expecting a
significant threat of frozen."
"The mid-level flow will turn more southwesterly from Wednesday night
into Friday, increasing confidence in precipitation during this
period. Another wave will move along the frontal zone Wednesday
night into Thursday, inducing a surface low that will develop off
the NC coast. So POPs increase to likely during this period. This
low and associated rain may help keep temperatures slightly below
normal on Thursday despite the high moving offshore. But they still
look too warm for anything but liquid. A vigorous shortwave will
then move across the Deep South on Thursday night - Friday, inducing
better mid-level height falls and continuing decent precipitation
chances. A cold front will finally sweep through on Friday behind
this system, but the GFS and ECMWF trended significantly slower with
its timing on their 00z runs. So keep POPs going into the day on
Friday and increased forecast temperatures a bit. This looks to be a
case of cold air chasing the precipitation, so again not expecting a
significant threat of frozen."
This is one thing that has changed over the years...NWS offices used to never jump on winter threats early
06z EPS improved at H5 a bit if we got back in the game trends would start today
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Things look pretty toasty to me thru at least Feb 25th or so in general, save a few random cold shots here or there, like early in the month. Near-certain February will be above average for temps in the SE US, esp for the Carolinas & GA. Further NW you get towards the TN & OH Valley into the southern Plains, better your odds are of staving off the SE US ridge.
We seem to be headed for a cool(er) March however
Pretty classic La Nina precipitation pattern here too, with high confidence in above average precipitation in the battle zone between the SE US ridge and western trough.
Will have to keep an eye out for river flooding for those in the lower-mid MS & Ohio Valleys as the combination of heavy rainfall & snowmelt upstream will put significant strain on the Mississippi river and some of the major tributaries.
We seem to be headed for a cool(er) March however
Pretty classic La Nina precipitation pattern here too, with high confidence in above average precipitation in the battle zone between the SE US ridge and western trough.
Will have to keep an eye out for river flooding for those in the lower-mid MS & Ohio Valleys as the combination of heavy rainfall & snowmelt upstream will put significant strain on the Mississippi river and some of the major tributaries.
Yeah, they use to be more conservative. If they mentioned a winter threat it was a very good sign. I guess they now need the "clicks".
I think it's more to do with social media bringing up potential threats so early, maybe they feel obligated to at least give it a mention in the AFDs? Idk, just a guess.
On another note, is February looking warm or cold? Anybody saying anything about it? I forgot.
I suppose in the grand scheme of things, the suffering of SE winter weather lovers should take a back seat to the good this winter's pattern has been as a whole for people.
The US west has gotten some desperately needed precipitation. The Mississippi River watershed was so moisture-starved that it wasn't long ago shipping almost ground to a halt. And, had a bitterly cold winter occurred in the heavily populated US midwest and east, along with Europe, we'd been in one heck of an energy crisis.
Of course we have Webber's take. And this covers the first third of the month (which agrees with Webber):
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
If the pattern actually looked cold & legitimately good for snow like it did in late December, I'd let you know about it.
Thanks!!
JHS
Member
We may very well be going to see it get warmer and drier for 2-3 weeks now. The rest of winter and into spring may be a lot like 1999.
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
12z GFS already looks worse.
Snowlove33
Member
Honestly after the short lived December cold we had where I thought we had a legitimate shot of seeing some wintry weather which turned out the usual cold and dry that was waisted with nothing to show for I knew then this winter was going to be a can of worms and I knew it was best to punt winter and move on to spring… and I agree with @Webberweather53 with all the information he has been putting out because he’s been right
LickWx
Member
For the snow-starved head to Mars!
Squashed but colder so far this run. s/w is just to fast 
^^Yep. Here's hour 153:
rburrel2
Member
Not far off from a hit for central NC. The time period after that looking interesting too with the confluence building in over new england and the trough over the rockies sped up.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The reason it's getting squashed here is because you're shutting off the main driver of precipitation in this setup (warm advection) by pressing the cold down from the north. You allow the precip to inch back north and you end up getting more warm advection aloft that changes any would-be frozen precip to rain or perhaps ice in some locales.
I just don't see how you score here unless the shortwave is a lot*** slower & allows the cold air to beat it into the Carolinas.
I just don't see how you score here unless the shortwave is a lot*** slower & allows the cold air to beat it into the Carolinas.
rburrel2
Member
how much is a plane ticket to southern Greenland?
Just shows we can have a well above normal month and it still feel winter like. My daffodils are just a few inches up with plenty of hard freezes but still warm days. I think a lot of us see all the red and assume 75 every day but it doesn’t take that for above normal.
This is a nice look honestly, but as everyone has noted, high is in a great place but I don’t know how we are going to get the s/w to slow down
Yep. Need slower S/W. Only way I know we can do that is strengthen the ridge behind it and back off the energy entering the west coast that gives the fast boot, but that’s difficult with energy emerging out the GOA. Not impossible but it’s hard in this type of pattern
Got 1.5” from a clipper. Melted very fast.
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
above normal means its probably going to be at least 60.
rburrel2
Member
Let's punt the first s/w and role with the 192hr GFS.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
You need the wave timing to look something like the trailing disturbance does, this right here on the 12z GFS would yield a nice CAD event in the Carolinas.
But once again, we're sitting w/ a good look at day 8-9. I wanna see this consistently across multiple model suites for at least 3 days before getting excited
This is painful. Literally if the S/W backed up a state or 2 west and we amped up the pattern some, it’s a winter storm. It’s just to fast 
lol that’s some insane cold air in SE Canada. Would not want to experience that 
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
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We all know this isn’t happening
Shaggy
Member
Story of the season has been progression with no blocking. No reason to think this one will be different
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The day 8-9 GFS is definitely how you get a nice CAD event in the Carolinas.
This isn't saying much at all considering how far out it is & the lack of run-to-run consistency, but I personally think this has a better chance to turn into something than the overrunning event we've been looking at for several days, mainly because the cold air would already be well entrenched & it would be more of a matter of getting moisture to overrun that from the SW.
Without significant high-latitude blocking & a +PNA/-NAO, you're limiting yourself to these overrunning & CAD-type setups. In those kinds of storms, you absolutely need the cold air to beat the moisture to the punch to have a real chance to see snow/ice. It's a totally different story when you're dealing w/ an amped coastal cyclone however.
This isn't saying much at all considering how far out it is & the lack of run-to-run consistency, but I personally think this has a better chance to turn into something than the overrunning event we've been looking at for several days, mainly because the cold air would already be well entrenched & it would be more of a matter of getting moisture to overrun that from the SW.
Without significant high-latitude blocking & a +PNA/-NAO, you're limiting yourself to these overrunning & CAD-type setups. In those kinds of storms, you absolutely need the cold air to beat the moisture to the punch to have a real chance to see snow/ice. It's a totally different story when you're dealing w/ an amped coastal cyclone however.
DobsonCityWx
Member
I like March snows. The sun will work better than old plow.
rburrel2
Member
CMC has a favorable track and orientation of the 2nd trough... but doesn't have the same confluence in new england like the GFS has so the wedge is muted.
I don't feel confident in either piece working out, but it at least seems possible we could get both things to go our way right now.
I don't feel confident in either piece working out, but it at least seems possible we could get both things to go our way right now.