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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

Yep. Cold rain again. My backyard gets jackpotted with the pink lollipop though!
prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.us_ma.png
 
packfan98 said:
Yep. Cold rain again. My backyard gets jackpotted with the pink lollipop though!
prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.us_ma.png
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TBH I'm just glad to see it trended south with an ULL, with this there is time for specifics to work itself out.... at least we have a chance right now
 
packfan98 said:
Agree. It continues the good trend and wasn't a definitive DR. NO run. Just wish it was colder.
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Upper levels were fine, in this setup BL is going to be a problem and will only be mitigated with amp up precip/good rates. Euro in right direction just not there yet, GFS let's face it is over done.... but we're still very close to a good paste job for someone. And it's not lala land
 
BullCityWx said:
It just doesn’t generate the QPF that the GFS does so BL doesn’t cool. It’s in the neighborhood though.

It didn’t cut and that is what is most important to me right now.
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I tend to agree. The tendency for these have been for them to amp up more the closer we get. If it does… maybe we could get lucky
 
Really surprised the Euro didn't show even more of something at the surface with that look at H5. Need a better surface reflection. But that was a relatively dry run and we are sitting in the upper 30's to low 40's. It wouldn't take much to get those down and continue to drift the ULL a little further southwest. Hopefully we can get a bowling ball that really slows under the ridge. Like others said this is going to be a relatively small area to get hit and you want that ULL tracking about 150-200 miles to your south. lets see if we can trend this better.
 
iGRXY said:
Really surprised the Euro didn't show even more of something at the surface with that look at H5. Need a better surface reflection. But that was a relatively dry run and we are sitting in the upper 30's to low 40's. It wouldn't take much to get those down and continue to drift the ULL a little further southwest. Hopefully we can get a bowling ball that really slows under the ridge. Like others said this is going to be a relatively small area to get hit and you want that ULL tracking about 150-200 miles to your south. lets see if we can trend this better.
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Now it's every man, woman, child for themselves.... I'm good with current location just need a little more precip. When the swath of perfection is this narrow might have to put a disclaimer when you want it to trend better Lol
 
metwannabe said:
Now it's every man, woman, child for themselves.... I'm good with current location just need a little more precip. When the swath of perfection is this narrow might have to put a disclaimer when you want it to trend better Lol
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Yup it really is at this point. Even with the good runs today expecting more than flakes in the air and white mulch is probably putting the cart before the horse. The good thing is we are 96-120 out so some consistency should come relatively soon on the models. Once we get that we can dig into BL temps, 850mb low tracks, fgen and all the goods
 
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