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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

packfan98 said:
my suspicion is that it ends back up in northern Virginia.
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packfan - it sounds like you may be infected with the fearcasting disease. It’s an affliction that causes forecasts to be made out of fear instead of sound judgement. It is commonly found on weather boards among members with a long history of being let down by late model adjustments, particularly during winter. Although a serious disease, it’s not quite as severe as its cousin, the bittercasting disease

I guess that UKMet run from yesterday wasn’t quite so crazy after all huh
 
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griteater said:
packfan - it sounds like you may be infected with the fearcasting disease. It’s an affliction that causes forecasts to be made out of fear instead of sound judgement. It is commonly found on weather boards among members with a long history of being let down by late model adjustments, particularly during winter. Although a serious disease, it’s not quite as severe as it’s cousin, the bittercasting disease

I guess that UKMet run from yesterday wasn’t quite so crazy after all huh
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No fear here. Just sharing my thoughts. Others might have these weather afflictions, but my immunity has built up after following every model run for 20 years.
 
packfan98 said:
Where's @Rain Cold?
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I was told it was not going to snow and that we were going to torch the rest of the winter. So, I haven't been paying much attention.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
@BIG FROSTY licking his chops while everyone else will be licking wounds
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You had to go and jinks it for me didn't ya!!! ? Not licking any chops around here, way to far out for that! lol The models will change half a dozen times between now and Saturday. But at least we got something encouraging to look at for a few hours anyway!
 
Broken024 said:
I don't know if this is good or not. Someone smarter than me can explain.View attachment 132297
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Not sure about upper air and surface temps, but it looks close. I would say, being five days out, that just having a low off our coast is a good sign. Just need some basic agreement right now.
 
These types of setups, as modeled, are always very fickle and rate driven. Usually a very narrow strip of accumulation with a few lucky lollipops strewn in. Areas outside that strip will see flakes fall, but if the rates aren’t there, little or nothing will accumulate. I remember a similar setup (maybe March 2010 shown below?) when I was home for spring break and local mets were calling for 2-5 inches. I watched it snow for about 3 hours and it never stuck at my house. This setup as modeled would be even more marginal. This would probably be a radar watching/ nowcasting type of event, if it were to play out.
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