• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

iGRXY said:
For NEGA and western Upstate folks, you want this thing to continue to dig and close off little further west. Granted even now with what the GFS shows and the rates, I would not be surprised if some of what it is showing as rain isn't snow.
Click to expand...
The soundings for N GA are pretty close to snow, only being 38 at the surface but below at 925 even. Given its a deform band setting up that could enhance rates enough to make it through and it's not even set in yet so we will see as we get closer. 2 more ticks and it'd be a good storm for N GA, upstate SC, and most of NC
 
iGRXY said:
For NEGA and western Upstate folks, you want this thing to continue to dig and close off little further west. Granted even now with what the GFS shows and the rates, I would not be surprised if some of what it is showing as rain isn't snow.
Click to expand...
Ukmet closing it off too far west... still lots of uncertainty on the track here. I wouldn't rule anybody out of the game.
 
The good thing is it's looking like a bowling ball cutoff scenario is likely at this point. Bad news is there were be extreme winners and lots of losers in this set up, and the winners won't encompass a very large area. No way to know who yet... but at least it's looking increasingly likely that someone in the Southeast will get a paste bomb.
 
gem_z500a_us_16.png

Mhmmmmmmmm
 
ForsythSnow said:
The soundings for N GA are pretty close to snow, only being 38 at the surface but below at 925 even. Given its a deform band setting up that could enhance rates enough to make it through and it's not even set in yet so we will see as we get closer. 2 more ticks and it'd be a good storm for N GA, upstate SC, and most of NC
Click to expand...
N Ga or just NE Ga?
 
I've seen way too many of these GFS paste bombs with marginal 850s that only center NC. Just look back at the archive threads from the past few years. I would expect the wave to trend warmer due to the cut-off of solid cold air sourcing from Canada. If we do see something, I would bet we would see a simmer down of the amplification.
 
Ollie Williams said:
I've seen way too many of these GFS paste bombs with marginal 850s that only center NC. Just look back at the archive threads from the past few years. I would expect the wave to trend warmer due to the cut-off of solid cold air sourcing from Canada. If we do see something, I would bet we would see a simmer down of the amplification.
Click to expand...
Yep, that’s my biggest concern, In these modeled setups we typically lose the amplification and lose the cold air aloft
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yep, that’s my biggest concern, In these modeled setups we typically lose the amplification and lose the cold air aloft
Click to expand...
It’s typically our most marginal set ups that can end up producing the goods but it’s nice to see at least these marginal hits 100 hours out.. almost certainly means a NAMing is coming
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yep, that’s my biggest concern, In these modeled setups we typically lose the amplification and lose the cold air aloft
Click to expand...
It looks like the Piedmont will see snow, but it will be rate driven. The icon has RDU below freezing during the heavy returns but temps spike when rates relent. But this is looking like it's going to be the best shot of snow for RDU for the season.

RDU during heavy returns:
1675787942318.png

RDU after when rates relent
1675787811089.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top