• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

just not our year. i'm taking solace knowing it wasn't just us- basically every megalopolis on the east coast is suffering through a record warm and unsnowy winter. sometimes you just gotta concede you were outplayed and outcoach and move on. hoping that the resorts (wintergreen, beech mtn, those types) don't suffer from this too much
 
All that matters is we live in warm phases during winter regardless of what the ENSO state is and what once was already a thin needle to thread to get snow and consistent cold in the south has gotten even thinner these last several years. I remember folks wanting to switch back to La Ninas before the last 3 years because at least we would have opportunities at big artic air in between the warm spells. Turns out it doesn't matter as the MJO is the driver of our patterns in the winter and until we stop living in warm phases that screws the Pacific all to hell, we will continue to see the winters from the last 5 years where everyone gets 1 nice storm every blue moon. I've seen enough now to know that it doesn't matter what the ENSO state is anymore. All La Nina did was help take a SER dominated pattern and kick it into overdrive as soon as we got to the typical February torch that you see in La Ninas. Areas that have the best shot at winter weather is those in the extreme western south where they right near the cold to be able to tap into it & CAD regions (still far and few between). Our patterns of CAD to keep my area relatively normal but not cold enough for consistent winter weather. Areas east of 77 are the ones I really feel for because it really takes the most perfect setup to get anything south of 85 and east of 77 these days. It might sound like whining but the results are right in front of you and they are one nice storm in Jan 22 and not a thing other than a handful of grass toppers and frozen tree tops since 2018.
 
ILMRoss said:
just not our year. i'm taking solace knowing it wasn't just us- basically every megalopolis on the east coast is suffering through a record warm and unsnowy winter. sometimes you just gotta concede you were outplayed and outcoach and move on. hoping that the resorts (wintergreen, beech mtn, those types) don't suffer from this too much
Click to expand...
This has been the Charlotte Hornets of winters
 
Brent said:
We've hit 90 in February twice before surprisingly (1911 and 1996)... I guess if it can happen here it can happen over there...
Click to expand...

It can but it's much harder. Our all time high is only 105F.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
I am skeptical we actually reach this record mid 80 to upper 80 temps here on Thursday. There does seem to be some clouds in the region through the afternoon hours. I have a hard time believing they dont at least keep us below record limits. If we had full sun I would be all in for it but I just dont see it right now.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I am skeptical we actually reach this record mid 80 to upper 80 temps here on Thursday. There does seem to be some clouds in the region through the afternoon hours. I have a hard time believing they dont at least keep us below record limits. If we had full sun I would be all in for it but I just dont see it right now.
Click to expand...
The fact that it's even on the table for discussion tells you everything you need to know about where we are.
 
Rain Cold said:
The fact that it's even on the table for discussion tells you everything you need to know about where we are.
Click to expand...
absolutely its all impressive warmth no way you slice it. I am just skeptical on reaching record highest max in February (85+) on Thursday due to clouds being in the way. If those clouds clear over the next couple days then obviously that changes things.
 
Heartbreaking to see non stop western troughing on the GFS and its deep, super amped troughs too.

Outside of the Great Lakes region, this really might go down as the “Winter that never was” in the eastern united states and I say this as someone who did see accumulating snow this winter. NYC has still yet to see accumulating snow. Just absurdity to me.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Heartbreaking to see non stop western troughing on the GFS and its deep, super amped troughs too.

Outside of the Great Lakes region, this really might go down as the “Winter that never was” in the eastern united states and I say this as someone who did see accumulating snow this winter. NYC has still yet to see accumulating snow. Just absurdity to me.
Click to expand...

NYC is going to thread the needle the next few weeks and should score some accumulation in March as the ridge relaxes. Plentiful chances with the -NAO.

They’ve definitely had winter out west. Snow has been plentiful in many areas. We may see snow in the coastal mountains of Southern California in the next week!

It may be heartbreaking to see a persistent trough out west but also pretty remarkable too. We live in a time where patterns love to persist. It will be interesting to see if we truly transition to an El Niño and what the implications will be for our weather next winter if any at all.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Last edited:
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Once again as we get closer the MJO is almost completely avoiding the colder phases. Not that it matters much at this point though. Whatever is causing this every winter, and I have doubts it's La Nina since it seems like it was the same thing in 18-19 and 19-20 when there wasn't a La Nina, there won't be any change to our winters going forward. We've had what one good month in the last 5 years which was Jan 22?
View attachment 133423
Click to expand...
Until this changes, and the predominate forcing, convection changes in the pacific, I think our hobby is Don Quixote. Global warming (no matter the reason) and the rut the pacific is in, is just too much to overcome, imo.

I wish I knew what to look for to break out of this mold of western troughs.
 
SnowNiner said:
Until this changes, and the predominate forcing, convection changes in the pacific, I think our hobby is Don Quixote. Global warming (no matter the reason) and the rut the pacific is in, is just too much to overcome, imo.

I wish I knew what to look for to break out of this mold of western troughs.
Click to expand...

A positive PNA for starters. It’s more scarce than a negative NAO.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
SD said:
The fact that the 12z gfs backs the nao block that far west and we can't trough the SE is disappointing. You can see why there was excitement for late Feb and March but the pacific is going to ruin it
Click to expand...
You are right. The pattern was showing itself, but now the PAC is gonna shut that sh** down.
 
BIG FROSTY said:
I found this interesting from Alan! I’m sure if it develops and the cold comes it will be too little too late for most.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

I've been saying that for weeks. The time we get the cold pattern it will be too late except for higher elevations. Back in December we didn't have this ssw event like now. That's only difference. Unfortunately a waste of a SSW imo.
 
BIG FROSTY said:
I found this interesting from Alan! I’m sure if it develops and the cold comes it will be too little too late for most.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

We may not see the significant cold like we did here but I think enough cold can transverse to still give the upper SE a chance at snow in mid march. The evolution is very very similar to December’s
 
BIG FROSTY said:
I found this interesting from Alan! I’m sure if it develops and the cold comes it will be too little too late for most.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Yes and the models were still having a difficult time seeing what that -NAO was going to do to the overall pattern even when the Pacific wasn’t great. I have feeling that we’ll start seeing ensembles start to react a little more to the -NAO in the next few days. I doubt we see a pattern that gives most of snow chances outside of the mountains, but I certainly could see north of I-40 and up into VA at least have a shot.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top