The La Nina's I remember seemed cold and dry but at least the cold was close by if needed. I could be having a case of revisionist history in my mind perhaps.
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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age
- Thread starter Ilovesnow28
- Start date
The La Nina's I remember seemed cold and dry but at least the cold was close by if needed. I could be having a case of revisionist history in my mind perhaps.
Anything is possible in any one winter, of course. But when considering averages, the only decent Nina in terms of average temps and wintry precip has been, not surprisingly a weak one (weaker SER on average most likely).
For those wanting a La Nina pattern, we're about to have a wet version in the 2nd week of Feb with a nice SER/solid -AAM. Same thing we had in mid Jan. I'll pass every time. now if I am in the Midwest and maybe even DFW, it would be different.
Brent
Member
80 degrees here lmao and people are arguing about snow potential
cd2play
Member
Yes, me too, but sure as I say that, next winter will probably be our La Nina and it will be 1931-32 redux
Niñas are money. Cold with northern energy diving down and phase potential. Seems almost impossible these days to get sufficient cold air with an active southern stream. If it comes, it’s in and out. Nina’s can throw you in the freezer for a prolonged period. Cold first, and Nina’s bring that to the table. Niños don’t
pcbjr
Member
Here's looking at ya ...
Hahah, air temp doesn't mean anything prior to snowfall. Denver had 85 degrees that one time, and they had snow 8 hours later. Yes, Denver is further north, but the point here is that the air temp (past and present) doesn't matter.
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Brent
Member
Oh I know I was just joking the truth is we've had several storms after being in the 70s and near 80 I just think it's funny
Btw we're losing the GEFS had nearly every member snowy last night now more than half have zero
Brent
Member
Yeah I'm off Wednesday so I'm thinking about a possible roadtrip but I'm really uncertain right now and I did see a lot of snow in Lake Tahoe last month so yeah I dunno
I know you know about that; I was meaning that towards the one's that don't know lol, even they're not here on the fourm haha.
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2” aka “Transition zone” lol. Sorry Brent I’m laughing with you, not at you
Edit: good trends for my sister in law who lives east of OKC
Based on the actual numbers, the bolded must be a case of revisionist history. Why?
Only 2 of the last 8 and 1 of the last 4 La Ninas were cold at KATL:
- 2017-8: +3
- 2016-7: +7
- 2011-2: +5
- 2010-1: -2
- 2008-9: +2
- 2007-8: +2
- 2005-6: 0
- 2000-1: -2
Then again, only 2 of the last 8 and 1 of the last 4 El Nino's were cold at KATL:
- 2018-9: +4
- 2015-6: +5
- 2014-5: 0
- 2009-10: -5
- 2006-7: +2
- 2004-5: +2
- 2002-3: -2
- 1997-8: +1
So, the problem in recent years imo is not ENSO, but rather the globe! We're getting the double whammy of general GW along with extra warming of the Maritime Continent leading to the MJO being in phases 4 and 5 a larger % of the time than in the past and more of the SER.
- Looking more at the EN/LN numbers above, the last 8 La Ninas averaged +1.9 F whereas the last 8 El Ninos averaged only +0.9 F. So, even recent El Ninos have still averaged colder than recent La Ninas.
- Now, if I go back to 1950, the 23 La Ninas averaged +1.3 F whereas the 25 El Ninos averaged -0.9 F. In terms of S/IP, the 23 La Ninas averaged only 1.4" whereas the 25 El Ninos averaged 2.2". So, when looking at the last 70 years overall, El Ninos have been the clear winner for both S/IP and temps based on KATL.
- OTOH, if I were to look at just the last 8 La Ninas and last 8 El Ninos for SN/IP (much smaller sample), La Nina has been the clear winner with an average of a whopping 2.6" whereas the last 8 El Ninos have averaged only a measly 0.9" even though they were 1.0 F colder on average! So, imo, that is affecting a lot of folks' opinions and swaying them toward La Nina even though they've been warmer as one would expect.
- Now I'll look at the prior (i.e., before these last 8) 15 La Ninas and 17 El Ninos: a totally different story as regards SN/IP. Those 15 La Ninas averaged only a measly 0.8" where those 17 El Ninos averaged a much higher 2.8", which is the kind of thing I'd expect.
My feeling is that SN/IP, which is more random than temperatures, has been higher for La Nina than for El Nino recently mainly due to randomness, especially considering that recent El Ninos have still been 1.0 F colder than recent La Ninas as well as the longer term history of more S/IP on average for El Ninos. We'll see, but my expectation is that near future El Nino vs La Nina S/IP will revert back to the long term mean and favor El Nino. I think we'll know that answer by 2040.
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Main data sources:
https://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=ffc
https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php
NoSnowATL
Member
I would still take a La Niña..
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Brent
Member
I've never really been convinced on a big event here in the metro anyway like I've said in other posts the Euro showing nothing has always been a red flag
Sure the GFS maps were prettier but eh never bought there being a foot of snow anywhere nearby (although it did happen in 2010) but our track record and luck lately is meh lol
pcbjr
Member
This post deserves at least 100 "Likes" ...
Already big cad signal showing up for a sig. winter storm this month on 18z GFS. Pattern supports it IMO as cold is building snowpack to our north. More later from me.
Fountainguy97
Member
HRRR bringing some major solar heating tmrw. So it begins!
BHS1975
Member