Based on the actual numbers, the bolded must be a case of revisionist history. Why?
Only 2 of the last 8 and 1 of the last 4 La Ninas were cold at KATL:
- 2017-8: +3
- 2016-7: +7
- 2011-2: +5
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2010-1: -2
- 2008-9: +2
- 2007-8: +2
- 2005-6: 0
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2000-1: -2
Then again, only 2 of the last 8 and 1 of the last 4 El Nino's were cold at KATL:
- 2018-9: +4
- 2015-6: +5
- 2014-5: 0
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2009-10: -5
- 2006-7: +2
- 2004-5: +2
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2002-3: -2
- 1997-8: +1
So, the problem in recent years imo is not ENSO, but rather the globe! We're getting the double whammy of general GW along with extra warming of the Maritime Continent leading to the MJO being in phases 4 and 5 a larger % of the time than in the past and more of the SER.
- Looking more at the EN/LN numbers above, the last 8 La Ninas averaged +1.9 F whereas the last 8 El Ninos averaged only +0.9 F.
So, even recent El Ninos have still averaged colder than recent La Ninas.
- Now, if I go back to 1950, the 23 La Ninas averaged +1.3 F whereas the 25 El Ninos averaged -0.9 F. In terms of S/IP, the 23 La Ninas averaged only 1.4" whereas the 25 El Ninos averaged 2.2".
So, when looking at the last 70 years overall, El Ninos have been the clear winner for both S/IP and temps based on KATL.
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OTOH, if I were to look at just the last 8 La Ninas and last 8 El Ninos for SN/IP (much smaller sample), La Nina has been the clear winner with an average of a whopping 2.6" whereas the last 8 El Ninos have averaged only a measly 0.9" even though they were 1.0 F colder on average! So, imo, that is affecting a lot of folks' opinions and swaying them toward La Nina even though they've been warmer as one would expect.
- Now I'll look at the prior (i.e., before these last 8) 15 La Ninas and 17 El Ninos: a totally different story as regards SN/IP. Those 15 La Ninas averaged only a measly 0.8" where those 17 El Ninos averaged a much higher 2.8", which is the kind of thing I'd expect.
My feeling is that SN/IP, which is more random than temperatures, has been higher for La Nina than for El Nino recently mainly due to randomness, especially considering that recent El Ninos have still been 1.0 F colder than recent La Ninas as well as the longer term history of more S/IP on average for El Ninos. We'll see, but my expectation is that near future El Nino vs La Nina S/IP will revert back to the long term mean and favor El Nino. I think we'll know that answer by 2040.
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Main data sources:
https://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=ffc
https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php
