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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

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This looks interesting. Doesn’t appear cold enough outside mountains. But look at that high to the north this thing could trend better.


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Jessy89 said:
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This looks interesting. Doesn’t appear cold enough outside mountains. But look at that high to the north this thing could trend better.


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Rates would definitely help out here for sure .. seen the ensembles try to wrap this little system up .. would be interesting but I won’t put any of my chips in .. mostly cause I ran out of them weeks ago
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Rates would definitely help out here for sure .. seen the ensembles try to wrap this little system up .. would be interesting but I won’t put any of my chips in .. mostly cause I ran out of them weeks ago
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Could be a quick 1-2 inch event for some if it trends better. At least it’s inside 7 days


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Jessy89 said:
387cc3e8fa3bfd69a32389c14771b603.jpg


This looks interesting. Doesn’t appear cold enough outside mountains. But look at that high to the north this thing could trend better.


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is this an ACTUAL Alberta Clipper? God, I miss those. Usually means transient snow showers and no accumulation, but I'll take it, along with a teen low or two.
 
KyloG said:
This will be our 3rd straight Feb with a stout -PNA.
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The last 2 Februarys have had +AO/-NPO (which are strongly correlated to -PNA) were followed by El Nino the next winter, that's not a coincidence.

In light of how persistent & strong WWBs have been since late October, a strong West Pac MJO pulse in late Feb/Mar would be a final nail in the coffin imo for potentially setting off an El Nino in 2020-21.

The GEFS is very enthusiastic obviously but the ECMWF tends to completely whiff on MJO events when initialized near the Maritime Continent.

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Webberweather53 said:
The last 2 Februarys have had +AO/-NPO (which are strongly correlated to -PNA) were followed by El Nino the next winter, that's not a coincidence.

In light of how persistent & strong WWBs have been since late October, a strong West Pac MJO pulse in late Feb/Mar would be a final nail in the coffin imo for potentially setting off an El Nino in 2020-21.

The GEFS is very enthusiastic obviously but the ECMWF tends to completely whiff on MJO events when initialized near the Maritime Continent.

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Just glancing at the PNA tables on cpc...that is fascinating looking at past Feb -PNA preceding upcoming nino's. I know nothing is 100% certain but that is stout correlation.
 
KyloG said:
Just glancing at the PNA tables on cpc...that is fascinating looking at past Feb -PNA preceding upcoming nino's. I know nothing is 100% certain but that is stout correlation.
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Roughly 50-60% of -PNA Februarys (< -0.5 sigma) were followed by El Ninos. Definitely skews the odds in favor of NINO vs climatology which is ~33%, but obviously as you said nothing is set in stone and there are a host of other ways and extraneous variables that can influence next winter's ENSO.
 
Brent said:
Really I mean I halfway want to chase and I easily could but I'm kind of over this having to go somewhere to see a real snow :rolleyes: I saw this coming but someday I'm gonna live in a place where snow happens every year /end rant

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I would 100% chase this.

NAM DUMPS snow in a short amount of time. .4-.5 qpf falls as snow in just 3 hrs with ratios around 12:1. So we are talking about easy 1-2inch hr rates for 5-6 hrs.

NAM bullseyes the area abt 20 miles NW of Wichita Falls with 11inches in 6 hrs. I'd be chasing that.

EURO also zeroes in on the Wichita Falls area. Looks like the place to be.
 
SD said:
we couldn't possibly suck for a 3rd straight nino could we? What could change to make next winter even worth tuning into if it's a nino?
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Though averaging warmer than normal, recent El Niño winters have actually averaged colder than recent La Niña winters at least based on KATL per an earlier post I made in here.

The bigger problem imo isn’t ENSO. It is how warm it is in and near the Maritime Continent vs surrounding waters. That has apparently been leading to a higher than normal % of days in winter in MJO phases 4 and 5/more SER. This conclusion was reached in a recent paper that was posted in the GW thread. Combine with a warmer globe and that’s what you get.
 
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Check out the models’ forecast for AAM. Note that they’re all rising after midmonth, including even the -AAM biased GEFS almost getting back to 0. The -AAM has correlation with a SER/La Ninaish pattern while a +AAM has the opposite correlation with a Ninoish pattern. SE winter lovers should root for a +AAM to return. The most recent cold spell/retreat of SER was during a stout +AAM after having been negative most of the time back to summer:

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GaWx said:
Check out the models’ forecast for AAM. Note that they’re all rising after midmonth, including even the -AAM biased GEFS almost getting back to 0. The -AAM has correlation with a SER/La Ninaish pattern while a +AAM has the opposite correlation with a Ninoish pattern. SE winter lovers should root for a +AAM to return. The most recent cold spell/retreat of SER was during a stout +AAM:

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The AO will also be dropping at the same time. If we can ever get a -AO that will be interesting.

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GaStorm said:
The AO will also be dropping at the same time. If we can ever get a -AO that will be interesting.

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I think that’s an all-time record high +AO (back to 1950) being shown there on 2/10 of near +6.0! The current record is just over +5.9 if I’m remembering correctly. It can only get better from there. Meanwhile, let’s see if the Arctic can get colder during this very strong +AO. As this graph shows, it is at its coldest of the season and looks like it may be getting colder. Also, note that the coldest normals aren’t til ~2/24-5:

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GaWx said:
I think that’s an all-time record high +AO (back to 1950) being shown there on 2/10 of near +6.0! The current record is just over +5.9 if I’m remembering correctly. It can only get better from there. Meanwhile, let’s see if the Arctic can get colder during this very strong +AO. As this graph shows, it is at its coldest of the season and looks like it may be getting colder. Also, note that the coldest normals aren’t til ~2/24-5:

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I would imagine going from extreme +AO to a -AO would open the door for a good arctic outbreak at some point.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
I would 100% chase this.

NAM DUMPS snow in a short amount of time. .4-.5 qpf falls as snow in just 3 hrs with ratios around 12:1. So we are talking about easy 1-2inch hr rates for 5-6 hrs.

NAM bullseyes the area abt 20 miles NW of Wichita Falls with 11inches in 6 hrs. I'd be chasing that.

EURO also zeroes in on the Wichita Falls area. Looks like the place to be.
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yeah a weather friend messaged me last night and he lives up there so I'm definitely eyeing it... but I wanna see what the models show tonight and tomorrow and that the higher totals are legit(and that this doesn't shift back towards Dallas at the last minute)... but I mean when am I gonna get a setup apparently this good when I'm off work again is the main point here lol
 
GaStorm said:
I would imagine going from extreme +AO to a -AO would open the door for a good arctic outbreak at some point.
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Indeed, the potential turnaround is only going to grow imo. But it won’t happen for at least 2 weeks from all indications. So, we have a torch likely coming up. That’s been assumed for awhile/nothing new. So, it doesn’t phase me in the least. It is sometime AFTER this torch that things are liable to get quite interesting in the SE for awhile. The AAM and even the MJO are sending warning signals for later. Combine that with what appears to be a then plunging AO and analogs with a very mild DJF tells me a lot of folks are likely going to be surprised by early March.
 
GFS says you better get your flurries this week cause the next opportunity wont come until the 19th and even that opportunity is for the mountains.

Time is ticking and we only have one timeout left.
 
Brent said:
yeah a weather friend messaged me last night and he lives up there so I'm definitely eyeing it... but I wanna see what the models show tonight and tomorrow and that the higher totals are legit(and that this doesn't shift back towards Dallas at the last minute)... but I mean when am I gonna get a setup apparently this good when I'm off work again is the main point here lol
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Hey, I need you to come in Wednesday on your off day and work. Can you handle that for me?
 
RollTide18 said:
GFS says you better get your flurries this week cause the next opportunity wont come until the 19th and even that opportunity is for the mountains.

Time is ticking and we only have one timeout left.
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The best opportunities are likely coming well beyond how far the 2 week models can see imo. The next couple of weeks have been largely a throwaway for awhile now. The teles are terrible. Lemonade cannot be made from the lemons then imo. That is old news. Patience will be valued now. If the AAM is really going to go positive, the pattern would then likely change significantly. That’s when the lemonade is liable to be plentiful. (A nod to @KyloG analogy). The GEFS having a significant-AAM bias and still heading toward 0 in 2 weeks is pretty encouraging. Also, the EPS forecast only dips down to -0.6 vs near -1 on earlier forecasts.
 
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Myfrotho704_ said:
Suprised no one is talking about this, this kinda reminds me of the last event that provided some suprise snow, just need a little bit more support but this ain’t that bad View attachment 32934
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Just was texting a friend talking about this one. Looks like it may affect same areas as Friday with more precip to work with. See what the good doc diagnosis is shortly.
 
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