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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

Stormdoc said:
I don’t think anyone knows. Certainly in my 50 years living in NC they “don’t make winters like they used to”. Obviously teleconnections have not helped us, but it seems even when they are not bad we find a way to be warm.
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The 2010s were above average in snowfall for most of NC, though (compared to the 1981-2010 average). Perception isn't always reality.
 
KyloG said:
Nothings changing until the SST’s in the maritime change. It’s boiling water which just fuels 4-5 over and over.

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So you're thinking the MJO has fueled the EPO the last few winters and destroyed the chances of a -NAO? As we know a -EPO tends to destroy a -NAO. Has the MJO constantly been in warm phases in winter since 2011? Our NAO problem has been persistent since then and the type of winter most on here hope for depends on it.
 
Believe the sky is falling and the earth is boiling if you wish. I will not get into an argument about that. I will say this. Average annual snowfall for MBY is about 2". I have lived in Fayette County GA for 28 years. My snowfall over that time has averaged out to just above 2" per year. Within that time, we have had 4 and 5 year snow droughts. It is disappointing, but it happens when you are in the deep south.

To keep somewhat on topic, I will agree that the remainder of the winter is looking rather bleak. I will also say that 1993 was looking rather bleak until March 13. I have learned many times to never say never. I have also learned that you speak in absolutes at your own risk.
 
BHS1975 said:
Meltwater from Antarctica?


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Whatever it takes to get me my snow lol. How come white on that map represents both normal and slightly below normal? I find that misleading. The maritime is roasting, regardless. No argument there
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
So you're thinking the MJO has fueled the EPO the last few winters and destroyed the chances of a -NAO? As we know a -EPO tends to destroy a -NAO. Has the MJO constantly been in warm phases in winter since 2011? Our NAO problem has been persistent since then and the type of winter most on here hope for depends on it.
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Absolutely, the MJO has been in 4 and 5 a significantly higher % of winter days on average the last 10 years vs, say, the 1980s. I've written about it in response to someone posting a recent study about this. I counted the days to verify the study's results and it verified well. So, global warming has been hitting the SE in two ways: overall warmer background temps and more pronounced waming in the Maritime Continent vs surrounding areas has increased the % of days in MJO phases 4 and 5. So a double whammy!
See the Global Warming thread for more on this.
 
Folks, until we can get a -EPO and have the ridge go up in Alaska there will be little change in the warm forecasts. Unfortunately the EURO has indicated this will not happen anytime soon. As I said in a post a week or 2 ago, we will get the EPO to flip and the NAO as well in late March or early April when it will do most outside the mountains no good for wintry precipitation. Pray we don't torch excessively until then or else a lot of flowering plants and fruits will get destroyed in late March-April. :confused:
 
I know these maps are skipping ahead to early March and they're from a terrible model, the CFS, but imagine if this were to occur. We'd be looking at near mid Jan normals in early March: upper 30s RDU/GSP, low 40s ATL/BMX, near 50 SAV/CHS, low to mid 50s GNV, etc. This is the coldest 5 day period on the entire run and it isn't til early March. That kind of thing can easily occur:

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GaWx said:
I know these maps are skipping ahead to early March and they're from a terrible model, the CFS, but imagine if this were to occur. We'd be looking at near mid Jan normals in early March: upper 30s RDU/GSP, low 40s ATL/BMX, near 50 SAV/CHS, low to mid 50s GNV, etc. This is the coldest 5 day period on the entire run and it isn't til early March. That kind of thing can easily occur:

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thank god spring is coming early then... cause the cold weather long range has never verified this winter
 
I haven’t been following as the NAM is awful in many respects. With that being said, Beech MTN will see some action worth following this weekend. NAM has always been terrible with snowfall along the blue ridge..esp Boone to Wilkesboro. Maybe not as bad as the CMC ice maps but I see it has been spitting out goofy maps.
 
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Also wanna shoutout the RGEM for being too cold. The bias is so bad it snows in hickory, Wilkes and Statesville. That’s not gonna happen as temps verify 5-10 degrees warmer on reliable guidance.
 
superjames1992 said:
The 2010s were above average in snowfall for most of NC, though (compared to the 1981-2010 average). Perception isn't always reality.
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I don’t know where to find all the numbers, but I believe I read not long ago that total inches are higher, while number of events and days with snow on the ground are less, at least at RDU. So fewer events, but heavier amounts when it does snow.
 
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