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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

After the Brent snow, I would watch for some wraparound snow behind the storm. 0z gfs tonight is hinting.
 
Parker said:
im trying to decide whether to take the Bham to Atlanta and then through the north Georgia mountains or Bham to Chattanooga to Knoxville. Both are similar lengths, but we just took the Chattanooga to Knoxville route last week to gatlinburg. Not only will the other route be new, but it could be dicey it some of the models are correct.
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It all depends on what time you plan to come through Atlanta. While there is probably not a "good" time anymore to drive through, if you are going to do so, you want to before rush hour(s). If you will hit it before 3 pm (ET), that would be best. Otherwise, go the other way. However, as you probably know, getting through Birmingham, Chattanooga, and heading into Knoxville is no piece of cake. But Atlanta traffic will make a preacher cuss!!

Good luck on the trip ... looking forward to hearing reports.
 
I know it’s probably the inner weenie in me but based off soundings on the RAP and NAM and precip maps from the RAP and RGEM I am starting to wonder if the northern upstate could get in on the action if we get heavy enough rates. And now I’m starting to look at what our temps/dew points are in conjunction to models and gsp to see if the are in line with models or higher/lower. My NCEP model blend temp bottoms out at 35 tomorrow night if so heavy rates could deal with that.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I know it’s torture. How often do we see those Texas snowstorms oriented SW to NE go *poof* in the blink of an eye..? Might have legs tho. That ridge over us in the SE is trying to flex and isn’t done yet. I’d be all in
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The EPS looks pretty good at least for some flakes lol but yeah I'm super skiddish at this range

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GaWx said:
I know these maps are skipping ahead to early March and they're from a terrible model, the CFS, but imagine if this were to occur. We'd be looking at near mid Jan normals in early March: upper 30s RDU/GSP, low 40s ATL/BMX, near 50 SAV/CHS, low to mid 50s GNV, etc. This is the coldest 5 day period on the entire run and it isn't til early March. That kind of thing can easily occur:

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Sun angle ☀️
 
I’m not saying they’re wrong, but I would be careful using the RAP/HRRR past 10+ hours. They’re pretty terrible at that range. I recall they have a tendency to overamp systems, too, but I may be wrong on that.
 
Starting to think isolated areas N of CLT (especially into the foothills) May get suprised with a burst of wet snow, models are trending towards more isothermal soundings with just sfc-950 mb temps being warm, but big chunky wet snowflakes can make it past that, also lots of bright banding and intense lift in the DGZ, along with weak elevated instability
Anyways for that burst of snow to happen your gonna need heavy rates of precip, to get snow, cool the surface to around 38-41 degrees, and a transient isothermal sounding supportive of heavy wet snow to fall tommorow evening 24A9FE6F-4212-409D-BBD8-F5897872C0A3.pngE66EEA92-C9FE-44E5-B232-CCD77151CBB7.pngB3ACD0EE-615C-41B5-BBD0-334DF3DC0159.png
 
It’s worth noting that when the precip falls, it’ll create its own in situ CAD dome, so yes, this technically is a “CAD” event
 
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