Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Even though the GFS is biased, here comes a big west Pacific MJO event... right on schedule.
Monster westerly wind burst might be incoming.
Monster westerly wind burst might be incoming.
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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age
- Thread starter Ilovesnow28
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
A reason worth watching may be simply because if we keep drawing El Ninos which historically favor colder/stormier weather relative to NINAs (even in this base state), one of them is bound to be halfway decent.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Every el Nino in recent years has been nothing but horrible. Bring on the la Nina's! Those years we get colder it seems and actual snow. I have a feeling that an overactive stj causes us to be just a bit too warm.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Nope, granted this year’s base state already seems more advanced and the WWBs have been much more frequent. That gigantic WP MJO event in late January and early February 2018 and the associated WWB definitely set the stage for the weak nino in 18-19.
The cold part is simply not true (at least based on actual ATL data) as even the recent La Ninas have averaged 1 F warmer than recent El Niños. The last few La Ninas have been absolute torches when averaged out! This sounds like selective memory to me as regards the average temperature aspect. Now the snow aspect of recent La Ninas happens to be a different story as I already acknowledged. But I also mentioned that that could very well be due mainly to the randomness often associated with SE snowstorms.
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whatalife
Moderator
Yes. I would tend to agree. I would personal take my chances with an El Nino as you stating over a Nina any day.
fwiw GFS for the clipper system
I'll check back in March 2021 and we will both still be at 0
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They may average warmer, but they can deliver some frigid cold air at times. El Niño’s can’t do this and so we have cold rain only. I’m with Forsyth. Ninas are better than ninos for at least something frozen.
Goodness, that SER is really a force On the GEFS, wouldn't suprise me if here in the Carolinas someone hits 80 degrees with 80s in the other part of the SE with this second SER flex 
I told em it was gonna be hot under that ridge in late winter. ??
..I see some records up for grabs
I told em it was gonna be hot under that ridge in late winter. ??
Yeah I agree
Brent
Member
I think I'm gonna bite the bullet and chase to Wichita Falls tonight. I don't think I can sit this out with 2 days off work and hope for a rogue sleet pellet here after all this time I've spent on it this week lol. It looks to be close to whatever bullseye there is here(at least 6 inches)
NCSNOW
Member
Lunchtime check for the Mtns: Gfs looks even better. Canadian not so:
Where is this info coming from? Yes, El Ninos absolutely can and have delivered frigid air many times into the SE. El Ninos can't deliver frigid air and there's cold rain only? This is so false. You need to prove your assertion with non-misleading facts as this is a science board.
NCSNOW
Member
12z Ukie:
We’re going to have to quit lumping our winters into “El Niño” or “La Niña”. It’s obvious at this point that the waters in the east-central Equatorial Pacific aren’t the only thing determining what type of winter we will have. Just my two pennies
Bingo. For one, the waters in and around Indonesia have been more of a factor recently amongst other things. Also, to further muddy up the waters, there are El Nino patterns during La Ninas and vice versa. ENSO is just one index although it is still often a pretty influential one from a seasonal standpoint.
WPC freezing rain odds now come within 20 miles of Mount Airy NC this week. Maybe the backdoor front can come in stronger and over perform esp Virginia blue ridge.
packfan98
Moderator
Euro trying to get on board.
packfan98
Moderator
interesting.Euro trying to get on board.
Yep. Might be headed to Maggie/Cataloochee this weekend with the Mrs.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
12Z Euro for Saturday night looks very similar to this past Friday morning here at the upper level temps. This one appears to have more moisture to work with.
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
42°F
6°C
| Humidity | 92% |
| Wind Speed | NW 18 G 24 mph |
| Barometer | 29.91 in (1012.7 mb) |
| Dewpoint | 40°F (4°C) |
| Visibility | 6.00 mi |
| Wind Chill | 34°F (1°C) |
| Last update | 4 Feb 11:53 am CST |
This Afternoon
Mostly cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 44 by 5pm. North northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Curious if Brent may be a little excited that the cold is about 6 hours ahead of schedule for his area? The winds are quite a bit stronger than forecast. maybe the track will be a little south??
GeorgiaGirl
Member
He said earlier in the thread he's decided to go to Wichita Falls tonight and personally I don't blame him from the little I've seen.
Oconeexman
Member
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Well said Jimmy..well said!
Maybe this friday /sat thing will over perform here again and I see some more fatties falling and get another trace. Pathetic I know but given our recent history that's epic nowadays!
This next system looks like it could be a repeat to our last suprise, front end wet snow 
Jessy89
Member
If rates overcome I could see north of 85 picking up a inch.
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EPS looks interesting as well. This is a pretty sizable change from the 0z run. Even for some places outside the mountains.
00z
12z
00z
12z
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olhausen
Member
Agreed. Here’s January 2016 and February 2016 which I’m pretty sure was El Nino.
Attachments
Not bad...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
No wonder -NPOs are favorable for NINO growth, not only do the low-level trades weaken but there's usually a huge upper level outflow jet into the "Kona Low" (trough near Hawaii) which substantially increases upper level divergence over the West-Central Pacific, encouraging ascent & deep convection, favoring phase 6-7-8 MJO.
And how about the very cold and snowy 2009-10, the coldest since 1977-8. And by the way, 1977-8 was also El Nino and was the 2nd coldest on record to THE coldest, 1976-7, still another El Nino!
In addition at ATL, 2004-5 had a major ZR. Also, 1991-2, 1986-7, and 1982-3 had major snows. 1987-8 had a major sleet. 1979-80 had the early March snow with very cold temps. I could go on and on in response to the comment that El Ninos can't deliver "frigid cold" and "so we have cold rain only." And this leads to another question: since when do you need "frigid cold" to get wintry precip?
That comment is so obviously false that I wonder if that was merely trolling out of frustration or boredom.
Edit: I almost forgot 1972-3: severe ZR ATL and historic snow further south!! The second heaviest snow for middle Ga was during the El Nino of 1913-4.
Edit: More El Nino winters that produced major winter storms: 1957-8, 1951-2, 1941-2, 1939-40 (2), 1923-4, 1911-2, 1905-6, 1904-5 (2 major ZRs!), 1896-7, 1888-9, 1884-5 (2), 1880-1, 1876-7
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MichaelJ
Member
Generally, I want no part of a La Nina but west based (Nino3.4) El Nino's give us the chance for more snow due to the jet undercutting highs across the North and bring enough cold air (depending on high placement and low track) to produce for the majority of our region. These type El Nino's tend to be back loaded but not every time.
tennessee storm
Member
Actually, you being in W TN means you don't see as much of the winter advantages of El Nino over La Nina as folks east of you. For your area, La Nina and El Nino are closer as regards cold and wintry precip vs. say, ATL and RDU.
I realize you may not be a lover of cold and wintry precip. and may prefer thunderstorms.